EU Market Situation and Outlook

[mrdoubleb]

OK, for those of you who (also) like to geek out over these things, I've, once again, dumped the Norway data into Excel. Note, there were not 100 X deliveries today - I got carried away a bit, but it still looks impressive.

Couple of notes:

• This confirms there was no hurricane impact on European shipments
• This confirms Tesla is still batching European deliveries for end of Q
• For S, the "P" is about 7%, Long Range is 37%, Short range is 55% of all deliveries. Note, that 90s outweighed 100s 4:1. The RWD models were only 13% of sales, so at least for this market, it made sense to go all in on AWD.
• For X, the "P" is about 2%, Long Range is roughly 2/3 vs. Short Range 1/3 of total. 90/100 are split almost evenly

 

[Gerardf]

. Note, there were not 100 X deliveries today - I got carried away a bit,

Actually, you were not... the latest number I see was 119 MX on Sept 28

Wow !

 

[KarenRei]

Holy heck... Norway, watch your back:

Nýskráningar bíla

I'd been following Iceland's EV registrations month by month... and looking at the stats from EAFO, which include Iceland's market penetration on a Year-To-Date perspective, which are 9,0%.... but I'd never taken the time to calculate market penetration month by month. Which obviously has gone up a lot, because EV sales have been skyrocketing here. But I'm still shocked at how high it's gotten:

Last complete monthly registration period (ending 17 aug): 398 EVs (PHEV + BEV) vs. 1413 ICEs (gas + diesel) = 22,0%
Last partially complete registration period (ending 17 sep): 281 EVs vs. 987 ICEs = 22,1%.

Seriously... 22% market penetration! It's amazing how much EV sales have grown this year here.

Now, to be fair, this is normally a time of low vehicle sales in general, so there's always the chance that for some reason, EV sales don't respond to this normal yearly cycle (why they wouldn't, I don't know). But I'm crazy enthused by these results! They also mean that if EVs do follow our normal yearly cycle, we're going to have a huge surge in total EV sales next spring.

 

[neroden]

You (in Iceland) should lobby Tesla for a service center and supercharger! They could cover the whole country with one service site and, oh, four Supercharger sites maybe. Point out that it's a great market and that other EV makers are getting it because of Tesla's lack of presence.

I guess the best way to do this is to Tweet at Elon

 

[KarenRei]

You (in Iceland) should lobby Tesla for a service center and supercharger! They could cover the whole country with one service site and, oh, four Supercharger sites maybe. Point out that it's a great market and that other EV makers are getting it because of Tesla's lack of presence.

I guess the best way to do this is to Tweet at Elon

I have no personal "in" with Tesla (I sent Elon a tweet at one point, but more tweets from others would always be welcome ). I think they missed the boat with Iceland, seeing us as just a little island and not realizing that we had the potential to sell more EVs than countries many times our size. I'm expecting us to overtake Italy next month in total monthly sales. And yes, one store and service centre in Reykjavík would be sufficient, along with superchargers on the Ring Road (1332km - rugged, but low speed limits).

I know a member of parliament who was getting ready to put out some feelers to Tesla, but then the very day he was planning to, our government collapsed. So while I still expect him to, I expect it to be pushed back until after the election

 

[schonelucht]

Sweden is already reporting. However, they don't align with Norwegian numbers. 75 Model S (up from 66 last quarter and down from 163 last year) + 38 Model X ( down from from 56 last quarter and 129 last year). Very early days but it seems we will still get a strong month but it will mostly on th back of Norway's performance alone.

 

[geneclean55]

We already have an "entry pending approval" here for Netherlands. But I don't see numbers posted up on the official website yet.

Edit: Someone added Finlands total of 29 to this months tally for Netherlands.
I almost had a heart attack until I checked that the wrong source was used. Someone want to remove that?

 

[mrdoubleb]

We already have an "entry pending approval" here for Netherlands. But I don't see numbers posted up on the official website yet.

Edit: Someone added Finlands total of 29 to this months tally for Netherlands.
I almost had a heart attack until I checked that the wrong source was used. Someone want to remove that?

Someone already did.

Apologies for the scare. Maybe I shouldn't be adding data while bouncing around on the city bus.

 

[geneclean55]

112 for Belgium

 

[schonelucht]

Why not submit the numbers if you confirmed them?

 

[geneclean55]

Look like someone did. Maybe you?

 

[schonelucht]

Yes. I did.

 

[geneclean55]

Thank you

 

[schonelucht]

Looking at the full numbers coming in, both from other European countries and now from the quarterly total, I can't help but shake the feeling that the Norwegian performance is a mirage. As of now I have not heard a good reason why Norwegian Model S in particular was such a good deal this month. I hope I am wrong but it looks like Tesla pulled demand forward by emptying the Norwegian S pipeline. A close look at teslastats.no reveals that they delivered up to VIN 215xxx. Those are cars ordered quite recently and in earlier quarters would only have been delivered by the following quarter. Secondary, I fear some of the cars registered may end up as an outsized hidden inventory. If the above is true, the reason seems obvious : without this push, S+X deliveries would be lower year on year and paint an extremely bad picture.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think the sales boost in Norway is real. People really went nuts when they could get the 0.25% interest rate. (Starting in May.) Lots of people were asking for referrals and the Norwegian EV forum was full of people saying they'd ordered. And it makes sense that the economically conscious would go for the more affordable Model S 75D.

And the interest rate is still available! It was supposed to be finished around August, but Tesla has been extending the campaign for 2-4 weeks at a time. Currently it's supposed to end on October 13th. I guess it's just been too lucrative to end.

 

[transpondster]

Also people realized that neither 3, Ampera or 60kWh Leaf will be available soon-ish, that could resulted in few sales

 

[Adm]

In September

310 Model S
244 Model X

Registered in the Netherlands

https://www.bovag.nl/BovagWebsite/media/BovagMediaFiles/Cijfers/2017/Autoverkopen-september-2017.pdf

 

[Model 3]

I can't see if the official Norwegian numbers are in here yet? Anyway - here they are:
Bilsalget i september
Google translated: Google Oversetter

31.4 per cent passenger cars with hybrid operations in September
...
3856 new zero-emission passenger cars in September
In September, 3856 new passenger cars were registered with zero emissions. There are 1227 more (+46.7%) than in September 2016.

The zero-emission cars had 28.6 percent market share among passenger cars in September, in September 2016, the market share was 19.0 percent. Six of the new registered passenger cars in September were hydrogen cars, the rest were electric cars.

"The zero-emission cars approach 30 percent market share for a month is remarkably high, even in Norway," says Øyvind Solberg Thorsen. Because there are more electric cars with a longer range, there are still a limited number of models to choose from. The fact that so many new car buyers choose electric cars show that the car buyers have both become more environmentally conscious, but also that many fear that there will be even more restrictions on fossil-driven cars in the future.

31.4+28.6 = 60% BEV + Hybrid EV's.

Tesla had 2003 registrations, of witch 1007 was Model S. The rest 996 must be Model X.

 

[Spidy]

Any explanation why the UK is doing so well?

 

[FinFan]

I'm very interested in used car market situation in Norway. Now that we have had big EV sales numbers for couple of years, has it collapsed used ICE car prices? Does a source exists following this situation? I think the situation becomes really obvious when used norwegian ICE cars start showing up in neighbouring counties in big numbers. Or has that already happened? Norway is really interesting test case for all of this, and faith of petrol stations, air quality, soundscape of cities etc. Is there an active research field going on about this stuff in Norway?