EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Electroman]

The new Nissan Leaf is a real competitor for Tesla. I have driven it and it is a compelling car, and M3 will lose some sales to 2018 Leaf. It rides high, smooth and quite affordable and pretty decent range for all local driving, which is 90% of driving anyway. And above all trouble free.

Now i3 - it is laughable that it has sold only 7500 this year so far in its home ground - Europe. And there is a good reason why BMW is axing it. It sucks.

 

[K_Dizzle]

The new Nissan Leaf is a real competitor for Tesla. I have driven it and it is a compelling car, and M3 will lose some sales to 2018 Leaf. It rides high, smooth and quite affordable and pretty decent range for all local driving, which is 90% of driving anyway. And above all trouble free.

Now i3 - it is laughable that it has sold only 7500 this year so far in its home ground - Europe. And there is a good reason why BMW is axing it. It sucks.

Tesla may lose some base model 3 revervatulns to the leaf but it will still sell every single car it produces. This will undoubtly push the sales mix and improve the ASP of the model 3 which is good for Tesla and it’s shareholders.

 

[RobStark]

^^ A strange looking chart given all the ridicule of the competition on this site.

Renault-Nissan is kicking ass. And the i3 is doing consistently well. It's a shame it's getting axed.

Europe is EV starved. Demand far outpaces supply.

No Model 3 and only a trickle of Bolts.

There are talks about a Nissan Renault merger but so far no merger.

They are two companies that cooperate with each other not a single company.

 

[Plotinus]

The new Nissan Leaf is a real competitor for Tesla. I have driven it and it is a compelling car, and M3 will lose some sales to 2018 Leaf. It rides high, smooth and quite affordable and pretty decent range for all local driving, which is 90% of driving anyway. And above all trouble free.

Now i3 - it is laughable that it has sold only 7500 this year so far in its home ground - Europe. And there is a good reason why BMW is axing it. It sucks.

Everyone who works in design loves the i3. It's smart and sexy in my opinion, especially the profile and from behind. I see it around every corner these days, but still makes me turn my head.

As for only 7500, well it's the third best selling EV in Europe and it's a good chunk more expensive than the leaders. I'd say it's doing quite well.

Looks like it might overtake the model S on the all time sales list in Norway this year between.

 

[Plotinus]

Europe is EV starved. Demand far outpaces supply.

They are two companies that cooperate with each other not a single company.

And no one said otherwise. Though I don't think co-operation catches well how deep the alliance goes.

 

[Electroman]

it's a good chunk more expensive than the leaders. I'd say it's doing quite well.

Thats my point - while 80 miles range in itself is a nonstarter, the price makes it a joke. Its a shame that the German auto giants haven't stepped up to satisfy the huge demand.

 

[Cobos]

Thats my point - while 80 miles range in itself is a nonstarter, the price makes it a joke. Its a shame that the German auto giants haven't stepped up to satisfy the huge demand.

My guess is the i3 is selling well in Norway because it's more "premium" than the Leaf, and for mostly single occupancy vehicles the stupid backdoors is not a problem. Personally I think the i3 is just plain ugly, inside is OK, but outside just wierd-wierd, not wierd-cute like the Gen 1 Leaf. The Leaf Gen 1 design is also wierd but it kinda works, while the panda-badger (i3) as my wife calls it is just strange. This is of course is my personal opinion and not a truth.

Cobos

 

[Plotinus]

It sells well because it's a popular car..

I have heard that some people think it is.. ugly ( ? ) , which is mysterious.

I'm sure the ladies love it, between The streets of Frogner are lined up with i3 wifey cars.

The i3 is sexy and fun. It uses materials and colour combinations in ways that few/no other cars do, it gives it personality. It's just a very adequate urban car. Not too big and heavy and conventional. Model S and Model X feel dated and inadequate in comparison. I wonder if that is why it always brings out the ire of Musk and some other fanboys, more than any other car.

 

[Model 3]

... but still makes me turn my head.

Me too. I'm turning my head the other way to save my eyes

On the more serious side: It may well be a good car in many ways, but it IS designed to be ugly, and to not attract any existing BMW customers from their fossils over to this step-child.

 

[RobStark]

And no one said otherwise. Though I don't think co-operation catches well how deep the alliance goes.

It was heavily implied otherwise.

 

[RobStark]

Everyone who works in design loves the i3. It's smart and sexy in my opinion, especially the profile and from behind.

At best the i3 is like a puppy Bull Dog.

So ugly and little it is kind of adorable.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think the original Leaf and the i3 qualify for Musk's "weird-mobil" snark.

 

[replicant]

Europe is EV starved. Demand far outpaces supply.

No Model 3 and only a trickle of Bolts.

There are talks about a Nissan Renault merger but so far no merger.

They are two companies that cooperate with each other not a single company.

Every person I know that recently talked to me about cars said they want an EV ASAP (I live in Paris, France). Most of them are waiting for a vehicle that can do long distance trips (up to 900 km) without forcing them to charge it twice for 45 minutes in the middle of nowhere.

We have lots of holidays here, ya know.

 

[Plotinus]

This is what I don't understand.. how often do "most people" take 900km trips?

There's a trade off between expense and resource consumption-correlated battery size and flexibility of range. If we're going to have battery sizes that cover any trip, we're going to get a very inefficient resource allocation, because smaller batteries are good enough for 95% of car use. Let's say you need that battery size once every two years. How about just rent a car that day? Or take the train? Let's say it's more often, say trice every year, how about being a member of car sharing service in addition to owning a city car?

I can't see how everyone in Paris needs 900km range, in truth, most people in Paris, certainly in the inner city, shouldn't need a car at all for their daily transport.

With a solution like that, we don't need these very big and heavy batteries that are still and will be for a very long time expensive and not very green to produce.

The Tesla model of transport is not very green at all. In a head to head lifespan analysis, the Tesla does not do well against fuel efficient ICE cars let alone a leaf or an i3 (yea i know they're not family cars).

 

[RobStark]

The Tesla model of transport is not very green at all. In a head to head lifespan analysis, the Tesla does not do well against fuel efficient ICE cars let alone a leaf or an i3 (yea i know they're not family cars).

In the real world Tesla is displacing heavy polluting cars, yes in some cases rich people who own one "green" commuter car and one "guilty pleasure" weekend car with one Tesla.

In the real world, not everyone is going to drive a Zoe,i3 or a LEAF.

Elon is about real world solutions, not letting the perfect be the enemy of the much better. Car companies selling 3% idealistic BEV vehicles and 97% heavy polluting cars is not the way forward.

In many parts of the world a P100D produces less pollution than a Prius Eco, say Norway or Quebec for instance. Every year, there are more places like Quebec and less places like Saudi Arabia,West Virginia, or Poland.

 

[replicant]

This is what I don't understand.. how often do "most people" take 900km trips?

There's a trade off between expense and resource consumption-correlated battery size and flexibility of range. If we're going to have battery sizes that cover any trip, we're going to get a very inefficient resource allocation, because smaller batteries are good enough for 95% of car use. Let's say you need that battery size once every two years. How about just rent a car that day? Or take the train? Let's say it's more often, say trice every year, how about being a member of car sharing service in addition to owning a city car?

I can't see how everyone in Paris needs 900km range, in truth, most people in Paris, certainly in the inner city, shouldn't need a car at all for their daily transport.

With a solution like that, we don't need these very big and heavy batteries that are still and will be for a very long time expensive and not very green to produce.

The Tesla model of transport is not very green at all. In a head to head lifespan analysis, the Tesla does not do well against fuel efficient ICE cars let alone a leaf or an i3 (yea i know they're not family cars).

I have 3 cards in my wallet. A debit card, my national health insurance card and my Navigo Pass. This one give me access to:

• any bike for 30 minutes, free of charge, at anytime, among the (soon to be) 20,000 bikes available in the metropolis
• any tram, bus, metro and light train in the region (for only €67 per month, half of it paid by the employer)
• any of the 4,000 electric cars in the Paris area, for less than €5 per 20 min (average trip time in the city)

So, of course I don't own a car! We also have the TGV (high speed train) so it's pretty easy to go anywhere and rent a car at destination.

But my friends, family and coworkers who live in the suburbs or en province (many of whom have children) still need their ICE. They keep saying they can't imagine switching to EV if they have to waste 2 hours charging on every cross-country trip. We do them, what, 6 times a year? But that's something one must do in one go (à nos risques et périls) or maybe with a few quick stop to buy coffees and sandwiches. I just come back from a Paris-Barcelone trip made with a friend in this spirit. That's how I hear/see it anyway.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Every person I know that recently talked to me about cars said they want an EV ASAP (I live in Paris, France). Most of them are waiting for a vehicle that can do long distance trips (up to 900 km) without forcing them to charge it twice for 45 minutes in the middle of nowhere.

We have lots of holidays here, ya know.

I don’t understand this one bit. I’m driving from London Ontario to Montreal and back this weeeknd. I’m renting a Toyota Corolla which costs me $113 with unlimited kms. It’ll be around 1700kms total trip. I get to save my cars odometer from running up a significant chunk and not have to worry about range. I do this sort of trip 2 times a year.

 

[Model 3]

or maybe with a few quick stop to buy coffees and sandwiches.

So, it's not the number of times you have to charge that is the problem, but the length of the charging rest. So instead of "a vehicle that can do long distance trips (up to 900 km) without forcing them to charge it twice for 45 minutes in the middle of nowhere" it's "a vehicle that can do long distance trips (up to 900 km) without forcing them to charge it twice for 45 minutes in the middle of nowhere".

I don't see that they will get any car with 900km++ range any time soon, and not any "3 minutes--" charging time. But I think they may get one in the not to distance future that have an reasonable long range and a reasonable short charing time. It may be more and/or longer pauses then their ICE, but that is not only beneficial for the car, but for the driver too.... Maybe Tesla with SuC v3 is all that it takes? It already have 500km range, and with an even faster charging time then they have today... And definitely less then 45 minutes if they don't insist on charging to 100% SOC.

 

[neroden]

The new Nissan Leaf is a real competitor for Tesla. I have driven it and it is a compelling car, and M3 will lose some sales to 2018 Leaf. It rides high, smooth and quite affordable and pretty decent range for all local driving, which is 90% of driving anyway. And above all trouble free.

Apparently the 2018 Leaf *still* doesn't have thermal battery management, which is a deal-breaker for anyone who is paying attention. Supposedly the 2019 Leaf will have it, which will make it a really decent electric car for the first time.

 

[Electroman]

Apparently the 2018 Leaf *still* doesn't have thermal battery management, which is a deal-breaker for anyone who is paying attention. Supposedly the 2019 Leaf will have it, which will make it a really decent electric car for the first time.

Good point.

Although for a lesse it doesn’t matter much. I leased two Leafs back to back and gave them back before the degraded range started hurting me for my daily commutes and errands