EU Market Situation and Outlook

[SebastianR]

What's really interesting is that Tesla produces 1000-1500 more vehicles every quarter than they deliver. Tesla claims those vehicles go toward 'filling the pipeline' but doesn't give any specifics beyond that.

I think part of these cars will be used to keep delivering while there was no production due to factory retooling and part of it is indeed oversea's shipping. As long as the increase in "produced but not delivered" cars is proportionally not higher than the overall increase in production I think shipping is a very valid explanation.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well the incentives program in Estonia ended today. The last few days saw hundreds of applications that went well over the remaining funds for cars. Last Friday the approved total number of applications for Model S in Estonia was 26. I know at least 4-7 people got applications in before deadlines, but I wouldn't expect many more than 33 cars by end of year (currently at ca half that). Will see how the orders go from now (doubt anyone will buy other EV-s besides Tesla as the incentive was 50% of the other cars costs).

 

[anon]

Is there any other explanation that I am missing?

I think the interesting number is the new difference, not the sum of past differences - e.g. even though European delivery numbers may be dropping a bit, there are still a lot of cars on boats at the end of the quarter even just to sustain an approximate steady state. So 5000 cars on boats is to everywhere outside North America, not just China.

The new difference to this month is however probably just for China and RHD. Also, Elon mentioned the imminent launch of new RHD markets, like Australia. I can't remember how soon that will be though. Are there any imminent new LHD markets? I don't remember exactly what was said in the conference call.

 

[schonelucht]

http://www.febiac.be/documents_febiac/publications/2014/08-2014/cars.pdf for Belgium. 23 Teslas registered in July (up from 10 in April 14)

 

[mostapasta]

Here's what I have so far for July:

Am I missing any countries? Does anyone have sources for the few I'm missing?

 

[twan]

For Switzerland, I have a source but the July numbers haven't been provided yet:
http://www.auto-schweiz.ch/statistiken/autoverkaeufe-nach-modellen/

Although you aren't tracking it in this thread, we know of at least 8 cars delivered to Hong Kong in July from the press.

What were your sources for Austria and Finland?

 

[mostapasta]

That is the source I also use for Switzerland. I try to track all deliveries, but I haven't been able to find reliable sources for HK/China.

Austria: STATISTIK AUSTRIA - Kraftfahrzeuge - Neuzulassungen
Finland: 2014 - Autoalan Tiedotuskeskus

 

[kyne]

In Switzerland we had 26 registrations in July (279 YTD)

Source: auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen

 

[32no]

So far, there have been 676 Model S delivered in Germany. At $2000 per car for the supercharging option, Tesla has received $1,352,000 for use to build out superchargers. Assuming the average Supercharger costs $150,000 (the range is $100k-$175k), then Tesla has invested $2,250,000 into the 15 superchargers in Germany at the moment, almost double what Tesla has collected from the Supercharger option.

 

[DaveT]

So far, there have been 676 Model S delivered in Germany. At $2000 per car for the supercharging option, Tesla has received $1,352,000 for use to build out superchargers. Assuming the average Supercharger costs $150,000 (the range is $100k-$175k), then Tesla has invested $2,250,000 into the 15 superchargers in Germany at the moment, almost double what Tesla has collected from the Supercharger option.

Just wanted to add superchargers in Germany are used by travelers from surrounding countries as well on their way to various European destinations, so you're calculations really ought to include customers from surrounding countries as well (although that would be difficult to know exactly how many to include. You could probably take the total # supercharging fee charged in Europe and divide by total number of European superchargers to get a more accurate estimate).

 

[Norse]

Just wanted to add superchargers in Germany are used by travelers from surrounding countries as well on their way to various European destinations, so you're calculations really ought to include customers from surrounding countries as well (although that would be difficult to know exactly how many to include. You could probably take the total # supercharging fee charged in Europe and divide by total number of European superchargers to get a more accurate estimate).

You are right about that. The Tesla Forum(s) in Norway are flooded with people talking about their best holiday ever. Driving thru Europe for free!

 

[RobStark]

Just wanted to add superchargers in Germany are used by travelers from surrounding countries as well on their way to various European destinations,

Our Norwegian friend Bjorn had to suffer some pretty awful German public charging infrastructure on his vacation to Switzerland because the supercharging network had not been fully built out yet.

Norway has ~5300 Model S and 11 Supercharger locations.

 

[Maddin0r]

Audi in Hamburg welcomes Tesla at the Jungfernstieg - famous shopping street - in Hamburg.
The sign means "It's fine, when neighbours have the same interests." ... both are located in the same building.
In my eyes a bit cynical :biggrin:

Tesla Motors answered on Facebook "Thanks Audi for the warm welcome."

 

[schonelucht]

56 European supercharges * $150k = $8.4M, about 10k cars delivered in Europe * $2000 = $20M revenue. Tesla is well in the black here, but there are ongoing costs too. At 10 visits/day per supercharger site, average charge 40kWh that's 672 MWh per month. Industry electricity prices are around 90 EUR/MWh (source : http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-wAsset...rison_industrial_electricity_prices_final.pdf). Let's call it $130/MWh or a total of slightly less than $1M per year. Finally maintenance costs of infrastructure at 5% of original price per year or $420k. Total annual lay out then becomes $1.4M, meaning current supercharger grid is paid for the next 8 years with current revenue. Is Tesla reporting a reserve for ongoing future supercharger costs since this is a promise to their customers where they have accepted money but not yet delivered the product?

Known unkowns

• Leasing cost of parking space (negative impact)
• Actual use instead of estimates use (negative/positive impact)
• Actual maintenance cost (negative/positive impact)

Note : future sales will bring in more revenue but then again will generate a commensurate cost in adding newer stalls, added electricity costs and maintenance. Unless Tesla is frontloading supercharger deployment and is not planning to grow the network in lockstep with the number of cars on the road.

 

[Norse]

56 European supercharges * $150k = $8.4M, about 10k cars delivered in Europe * $2000 = $20M revenue. Tesla is well in the black here, but there are ongoing costs too. At 10 visits/day per supercharger site, average charge 40kWh that's 672 MWh per month. Industry electricity prices are around 90 EUR/MWh (source : http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-wAsset...rison_industrial_electricity_prices_final.pdf). Let's call it $130/MWh or a total of slightly less than $1M per year. Finally maintenance costs of infrastructure at 5% of original price per year or $420k. Total annual lay out then becomes $1.4M, meaning current supercharger grid is paid for the next 8 years with current revenue. Is Tesla reporting a reserve for ongoing future supercharger costs since this is a promise to their customers where they have accepted money but not yet delivered the product?

Known unkowns

• Leasing cost of parking space (negative impact)
• Actual use instead of estimates use (negative/positive impact)
• Actual maintenance cost (negative/positive impact)

Note : future sales will bring in more revenue but then again will generate a commensurate cost in adding newer stalls, added electricity costs and maintenance. Unless Tesla is frontloading supercharger deployment and is not planning to grow the network in lockstep with the number of cars on the road.

Tesla should buy their own spaces and lease some of it to restaurants.

 

[Mookuh]

56 European supercharges * $150k = $8.4M, about 10k cars delivered in Europe * $2000 = $20M revenue.

Did you possibly forget a 0 here in the revenue figure? I was under the impression Tesla would make around 20,000$ revenue per car sold. 2k seems very low. That and I'm gonna vneture a guess that on the pre-purchased maintenance plans, there is some money to be gained for them aswell.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Known unkowns

• Leasing cost of parking space (negative impact)

The rent for supercharger spots on public land here in Norway is at least nil. The contracts are in the public domain.

 

[Rebel44]

Did you possibly forget a 0 here in the revenue figure? I was under the impression Tesla would make around 20,000$ revenue per car sold. 2k seems very low. That and I'm gonna vneture a guess that on the pre-purchased maintenance plans, there is some money to be gained for them aswell.

2K is what Tesla charge customers for access to superchargers.

 

[Chickenlittle]

2K is what Tesla charge customers for access to superchargers.

Equipment and access

 

[dalalsid]

Equipment and access

Just access, the equipment is already built in because you can get access after purchase without additional hardware.