EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Gerardf]

First 50 Schiphol Amsterdam Taxi’s have been delivered and are now in use. (50 out of a total of 167 Taxi's).

I would not be surprised if this project will be closely monitored by several other European airports. Not just a clean EV driving in the cities and low costs per KM, but also lots of room for luggage AND four passengers.


Link (in Dutch) Teslataxis zijn vandaag gestart op Schiphol - Groen7

Other link (English) Amsterdam Skift

 

[mostapasta]

@Allz

According to:
Reģistrēto transportlīdzekļu skaits - CSDD - Ceļu satiksmes drošības direkcija

I see 2 sales in June and 1 in February.

Does 2013.g. and 2014.g. mean 2013 model year and 2014 model year?

Thanks for the help, does anyone else see anything I'm missing?

 

[maoing]

Anybody can summarize the EU Q3 sales number? China Q3 imports number just out, it's 1888 (not exactly the sales # but should be close).

 

[mostapasta]

Maoing does that include Hong Kong?

I calculated 1,633 registrations for Europe in Q3 (UK is still an estimate).

 

[maoing]

The China number doesn't include Hongkong, let's assume total 2000 delivery for China/Hongkong and Japan in Q3. So the NA needs to deliver 4100+ model S to meet Q3 guidance.

Maoing does that include Hong Kong?

I calculated 1,633 registrations for Europe in Q3 (UK is still an estimate).

 

[Ingenieur]

I think Europe is ca. 150 less as Mostapasta (whose work i value, thank you) just took and adjusted other non UK Imports as proxy for Tesla sales, but this number includes Ferrari and Lamborhini, both sell ca. 1000 a year, plus other exotic brands, so the number for tesla is lower.
On the other hand, i expect HK sales to be 200-300 Units this Q, Japan 37 cars.
Canada is ca. 150 cars.

 

[mostapasta]

Thanks Ingenieur! I agree my UK estimate is probably high, but at this point I don't have any better information to use (I don't know why SMMT won't separate out Tesla, I've emailed them but no luck). Judging from the forums I easily expect a few hundred units to have been sold in HK so that's good it wasn't included in China Q3 imports number that Maoing found.

 

[Ingenieur]

Norway 36 Model S sold in October

Bilsalget i oktober - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS

Unconfirmed: 27 Model S sold in October in Netherlands, maybe someone from there can look it up.


Supply or demand?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Definitely supply. They've very clearly prioritized US and China delivieries in Q3. The first EU Model S for Q4 was probably made around the 1st of October, and then the shipping takes 2+ weeks.

Rumours are that December will be a significantly busier month.

 

[matbl]

October number for Sweden: 12

As a comparison
Leaf: 31
VW E-up!: 8
BMW i3 (BEV): 3
VW E-golf: 3
Volvo C30 Electric: 3
Renault ZOE: 26
All other pure electric: 0
Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-in Hybrid: 279
Total number of cars sold (just to put it in perspective): 28252

So MS market share: 0.04%

 

[RobStark]

Definitely supply. They've very clearly prioritized US and China delivieries in Q3. The first EU Model S for Q4 was probably made around the 1st of October, and then the shipping takes 2+ weeks.

Rumours are that December will be a significantly busier month.

My assumption was that the vast majority of Norwegians would opt for all wheel drive.

While there may be a few P85D's delivered between Dec and Feb significant numbers of 85D and 60D would not be delivered until March 2015.

US deliveries of P85Ds start in Dec and 85Ds start in Feb.

 

[schonelucht]

Unconfirmed: 27 Model S sold in October in Netherlands, maybe someone from there can look it up.

That's actually confirmed (down from 32 year-on-year). Here is an authoratitive source : http://www.bovag.nl/data/sitemanagement/media/20141103%20autoverkopen%20oktober%202014.pdf First month of the quarter numbers are always uninteresting in Europe so I won't speculate on supply or demand. December is going to be the break or make month.

 

[Yggdrasill]

My assumption was that the vast majority of Norwegians would opt for all wheel drive.

While there may be a few P85D's delivered between Dec and Feb significant numbers of 85D and 60D would not be delivered until March 2015.

US deliveries of P85Ds start in Dec and 85Ds start in Feb.

You will definitely see deliveries pick up substantially around March, with a slight possibility of a new all time high. But the delivieries in October are orders from June-ish, so the D announcement can't be said to have had much of an effect. However, one possibility is that Tesla has deliberately delayed Norwegian deliveries, in anticipation of the D. Tesla is allowing people to change their order to a D, at no cancellation cost or anything, regardless of how close until delivery their car has gotten. With fewer cars in the pipeline, they wouldn't end up with very many buyerless cars.

It's really har to say just what factors have played a role here, but I think the consensus is that sales will pick up substantially over the next few months.

 

[mostapasta]

October is coming in as one of the weakest months for Europe since Tesla started selling there. They must have cleaned house to meet/exceed their Q3 guidance.

 

[Gerardf]

You can add 6 Belgium for October. Source : http://febiac.web4pro.com/nl_mon_brand.xls

 

[Newb]

In Germany, registry notes down 17 new Tesla Model S on the roads in October.
http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publik...11_2014_10_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

And with regards to prices, Elon mentioned in the recent earnings call yesterday, that Europeans should order as soon as possible since prices increases are on the horizon due to Euro currency situation. Just so you know.

 

[Newb]

...and as Elon has warned, Tesla takes action: Price adjustments!

(from German Tesla Motors Design Studio, incl. VAT)

S 60, increase from 65.300 Euro to 67.900 Euro (+2.600, +4%)
S 85, increase from 74.900 Euro to 77.300 Euro (+2.400, +3.2%)
P 85D, increase from 98.400 Euro to 101.200 Euro (+2.800, +2.8%)

 

[mostapasta]

Should be an interesting November and December!

(let me know if I'm missing any countries or have incorrect values)

 

[GOVA]

Should be an interesting November and December!
View attachment 63825
(let me know if I'm missing any countries or have incorrect values)

Apparently there are at least 1, if not 2-3 Model S in Poland

https://translate.google.com/transl...a-poznania-kilka-uwag-wlasciciela/&edit-text=

 

[mostapasta]

In Oct '13 there was 1 Model S registered in Poland, but for Oct '14 there was 0. The dates on that article seem old, but it's hard to read from the translation.

Look at:
http://carmarket.com.pl/ranking.php