Even more discussions about Model 3 and Tesla competition

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I think it's because of the unmitigated "early" success of Model 3 with 100's of thousands of deposited pre-orders that other manufacturers are drastically accelerating their own timetables for entry into the EV market.

Tesla has a head start. They still have to execute very well. Next six months will be interesting as they transition into first time owners taking possession.

The issues described so far are either minor annoyances or show-stoppers depending on your expectations.

Other manufacturers may be accelerating their own EV production, but they seem to be a couple years behind Tesla, except for GM, and I expected the Bolt to be selling better given it's 1+ year headstart on the 3, so I'm not sure how well it'll do once Tesla ramps up production.

Granted, there are plenty of ~100 mile EVs around, but I don't think those are similar enough to be competition. I think the new Leaf and Ioniq EV are closer than average, but they give up a lot in terms of range, acceleration, interior size, and looks with only a ~$5k+ drop in price.

There are a few 200+ mile EVs in the pipeline, but aside from the long range Leaf, I'm not confident we'll see them in sufficient numbers at a similar price to the 3 in the next couple years.

List of Electric Vehicles (2018)

I agree but it's not clear to me how they could short of a battery breakthrough that only they have access to or a decision to sell at a loss.

Yeah, I think selling at a loss initially would be most likely. They still have some wiggle room if the EV tax credit sticks around though. Everyone except for GM, Nissan, and Tesla will have a couple hundred thousand vehicles to scale up their own battery production.

 

[kbM3]

Other manufacturers may be accelerating their own EV production, but they seem to be a couple years behind Tesla, except for GM, and I expected the Bolt to be selling better given it's 1+ year headstart on the 3, so I'm not sure how well it'll do once Tesla ramps up production.

GM is not close to Tesla. A $37.5k subcompact hatchback with no standard DC fast charging is at least $12.5k too high. Plus there are many indications that even at this price, GM is losing money.

 

[SteveG3]

GM is not close to Tesla. A $37.5k subcompact hatchback with no standard DC fast charging is at least $12.5k too high. Plus there are many indications that even at this price, GM is losing money.

yes. GM is also building only about 30K per year. It’s all but certain that GM will sell 25% or less BEVs as Tesla for many years to come.

Tesla is moving to EVs like a dog chasing a squirrel, the incumbent automakers more like a dog being dragged to the bath. It’s not about being “stupid” or “backward” it’s about the unattractiveness of imploding your existing business and hoping busting your butt will get you a seat at the table of a new industry. If you could keep a cushy cash making seat in the old industry for another ten years (and only slightly increase the difficulty/survival odds of switching tech at that point vs now) would that be a dumb move?

If you sell the bulk of your cars in the Model S, X, 3s price ranges, this is not nearly the option it is for Ford or Toyota. But, if you aren’t BMW, etc, how much do you care if Tesla hits it out of the park and sells 5 million cars in 2025? Toyota recently announced that they are aiming for 10% BEVs- in 2030! Moving like a dog being dragged to the bathtub.

 

[SageBrush]

yes. GM is also building only about 30K per year. It’s all but certain that GM will sell 25% or less BEVs as Tesla for many years to come.

Maybe 5%

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

GM is not close to Tesla. A $37.5k subcompact hatchback with no standard DC fast charging is at least $12.5k too high. Plus there are many indications that even at this price, GM is losing money.

Where are the indications that GM is losing money? If they're by the same people claiming Tesla, or some other manufacturer, is losing money selling EVs, I wouldn't worry about it. As for the Bolt, it's a small station and has a little less interior volume, a little more cargo volume, and a little more overall volume, not a subcompact.

 

[kbM3]

Where are the indications that GM is losing money? If they're by the same people claiming Tesla, or some other manufacturer, is losing money selling EVs, I wouldn't worry about it. As for the Bolt, it's a small station and has a little less interior volume, a little more cargo volume, and a little more overall volume, not a subcompact.

1) UBS tear down.
2) PSA is suing GM over the undisclosed costs of the Ampera-E
3) Ampera-E price was raised by 5k euros.
4) GM exec mentioned future EV’s would be profitable (implying the current Bolt is not).
5). Early $10k loss / car rumors.

That’s all I can remember off the top of my head.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

1) UBS tear down.
2) PSA is suing GM over the undisclosed costs of the Ampera-E
3) Ampera-E price was raised by 5k euros.
4) GM exec mentioned future EV’s would be profitable (implying the current Bolt is not).
5). Early $10k loss / car rumors.

That’s all I can remember off the top of my head.

Do you have any links for those?

Also, not being profitable may not the the same as losing money on a car. IIRC, Toyota didn't make money off of the first gen Prius, but they did (mostly?) break even, and that allowed the successive generations to be profitable.

 

[kbM3]

Do you have any links for those?

Also, not being profitable may not the the same as losing money on a car. IIRC, Toyota didn't make money off of the first gen Prius, but they did (mostly?) break even, and that allowed the successive generations to be profitable.

Sorry. I am too lazy. This is all from my recollection.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I wouldn't form an opinion based on that. Memory is fallable, and it seems unlikely that GM or any manufacturer wouild sell ~20k vehicles/year at a significant loss.

 

[mcghee33]

Where are the indications that GM is losing money? If they're by the same people claiming Tesla, or some other manufacturer, is losing money selling EVs, I wouldn't worry about it. As for the Bolt, it's a small station and has a little less interior volume, a little more cargo volume, and a little more overall volume, not a subcompact.

GM stands to lose $9,000 per car on Chevy Bolt
The main reason automakers have created EVs, to then only sell them in small numbers are:
1. Public perception that they care about the environment
2. To drive down the total emissions of all of their cars to meet regulations around the world that statute how many MPGs your overall car offerings are at. Dropping a few 135MPGs in an EV really helps offset those trucks that are barely hitting 20.

But this thread has gone WAY off the deep end away from Model 3 drive impressions. So lets get back on topic

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

GM stands to lose $9,000 per car on Chevy Bolt
The main reason automakers have created EVs, to then only sell them in small numbers are:
1. Public perception that they care about the environment
2. To drive down the total emissions of all of their cars to meet regulations around the world that statute how many MPGs your overall car offerings are at. Dropping a few 135MPGs in an EV really helps offset those trucks that are barely hitting 20.

But this thread has gone WAY off the deep end away from Model 3 drive impressions. So lets get back on topic

I see... It's the good old "a person familiar with the matter" source, just like all of Tesla's welding problems with the 3.

The Bolt’s anticipated per-sale loss of roughly $8,000 to $9,000 is an estimate based on a sticker price of $37,500, according to a person familiar with the matter. A GM spokesman declined to comment on the expected profitability.

GM ready to lose $9,000 for every Chevrolet Bolt | Toronto Star

I never understand why people are so quick to be skeptical of something their invested in, but wouldn't take a second to ciritically examine something that supports their beliefs. But yeah, I'll ask a mod to move the OT posts.

 

[alloverx]

saw an autoline report (go to 25:00 point) where the loss per bolt was guesstimated at 7K.

 

[mrsandman]

A huge assumption in this thread is that these prospective buyers are looking for an EV. Like the OP hinted at, the competition may not necessarily be an EV. It might be a nice, new, high-tech, fast, great handling, fun to drive car that people are looking for and the fact that it is an EV is a bonus. BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus all have cars that can deliver on all of those factors (minus the EV of course) in the same price range. This is the boat I’m in and I suspect there are others as well. Of course, those others may not be well represented on this forum because most everyone here is a diehard Tesla fan. If Tesla doesn’t get these issues worked out and continues to add delays then these buyers will move on to someone that can deliver. The main reason I haven’t jumped ship yet is because I’ve come too far and have a Jan-Mar. delivery date. If the competition comes out with something comparable before I get my invite I’m going to give it a serious look.

 

[NicoV]

My post was not directed at range anxiety, but being able to actually take real trips with the car.

But your quote illustrates the point I was trying to convey. Until competitor's EV's are able to take real world road trips, they won't really be competitive with Tesla at all imho. They won't be able to supplant an ICE vehicle like only a Tesla can.

The competitor's are years behind, my guess is at least 2025 until they have viable countrywide quick charge infrastructure in all major markets (aka supercharger network capability).

I think the Tesla supercharging network is the biggest obstacle for the other EV vendors, and at this point has reached a size big enough to prevent a successfull entry of a competitor in the EV market. The supercharger network is effectively a black hole that sucks up all of the potential EV drivers and will prevent any competitor to reach critical mass.

The big issue here is that there isn’t a single competitor who’s building a charging network with the same characteristics of the Tesla network:
- massive scale
- electricity sold at similar price as charging at home (for reference: I once charged on a public Chademo charger, and the cost was 75 eurocents/kWh, 3 to 8 times the cost of home charging). For a Tesla driver it’s bearable to do this once in a while. For other EV drivers it’s the norm, and it totally destroys any fuel savings from driving electric. When a prospective EV driver figures this out (and they will, because all Tesla drivers will tell them this), it will make it clear that they should buy a Tesla instead of anything else.

 

[Jayc]

I think Tesla taken as a whole has no direct competition when you look at their roadmap and their ability to innovate ground up. However, if Nissan can bring their IMX to production early especially in international markets, they can grab a good chunk out of the EV market.

 

[Reciprocity]

Curious to the 60kwh version of the Nissan Leaf though.

Their 35k new leaf comes with quite a few options and driving assistance technologies standard.

They seem more dedicated to EV than most manufacturers and deserve some credit for the original leaf years back

You have seen the Nissan leaf 2.0? You consider this competition for model 3? I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Bolt is not a bad vehicle, it's just fugly and GM losses $10k per car and can't get batteries for more then 30,000 of them next year. GM had nothing else to offer. Everything else is vapor ware, power point presentations until they actually got the market in volume. Which is years away. As noted by others in this thread, batteries for volume EVs is the issue and no one, other then Tesla, is positioned to mass produce EVs outside of China.

Legit competition is 5 years away and by then model y and Tesla pickup will have destroyed the top end margin of many many competitors. Wrap your heads around this.. model S/X 2.0 with 2170 and permanent magnet motors and model 3 simplified interior and an augmented reality HUD. This could happen by the end of this year (2018). This car could have 350-400 Mile range with 80% charging in 30 minutes, like the semi. My guess is this will be targeted at the phase out of fed tax credits to maintain demand.

 

[T34ME]

A huge assumption in this thread is that these prospective buyers are looking for an EV. Like the OP hinted at, the competition may not necessarily be an EV. It might be a nice, new, high-tech, fast, great handling, fun to drive car that people are looking for and the fact that it is an EV is a bonus. BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Lexus all have cars that can deliver on all of those factors (minus the EV of course) in the same price range.

You mean an ICE car similar in price to model 3 that is slower off the line, doesn't handle as well, requires regular oil changes, is more expensive to operate over the long run, has an interior with buttons and dials all over the place, doesn't have regular updates to its onboard software, and is a pollution machine? And tell me which ICE car that is a Tesla killer would that be then. I can just hear the horse and buggy guys using that same argument when the Model T was introduced.

because most everyone here is a diehard Tesla fan.

That's a dayam lie! "I am a complete enthusiast!" Maybe I should go over to the ICE fora and spread a little gospel there.

If the competition comes out with something comparable before I get my invite I’m going to give it a serious look.

So you're saying the ICE competition might come out with something in three months that is a Tesla killer. I presume that would be headline news at this point. Which car would that be?

Tesla is like the Borg in Star Trek, "Resistance is futile."

 

[suwaneedad]

One more log to throw on the fire: Tesla has an advantage because it doesn't have a dealer network. That is an extra layer of profit margin that isn't necessary in Tesla's go-to-market strategy. This is $5-10+k/unit depending on price of vehicle, and is already an advantage for Tesla over the legacy car makers (atop all the other advantages already documented in this thread).

Also, the concept of build-to-order vehicles was a big part of the Tesla Wow Factor before we all understandably got distracted by the launch of M3. But that Wow Factor is another massive, massive advantage financially for Tesla over the legacy guys. Seeing all those M3s parked outside the factory has been breaking my heart since it runs counter to the notion of converting metal, plastic, and glass into cash much, much faster than the legacy guys can even dream of. Once M3 production is up to speed, we will go back to honoring this production approach and manufacturer-direct approach (no dealer) in seeing another key reason why Tesla is steadily taking over the industry. It's a thing of beauty to watch unfold. Good luck to all those 'career car guys' working at and leading the legacy makers. "Dead Man Walking!!"

 

[copyhacker]

Range anxiety from the people I talk to consists of people worried they can’t drive 90 minutes away on the weekend then back again without a recharge.

This. Longer road trips appear solved, but the scenario that gives me (not yet a Tesla owner) the most pause is the day, overnight, or weekend trip of 100-200 miles where an extra 20 minutes to supercharge, or the uncertainty of finding a destination charger that a) works and b) is unoccupied, adds a nontrivial amount of time.

ETA: Personal example.

Back in the fall my wife and I drove the Volt to Charlotte (90 miles away) for the evening to go to a concert. Venue parking had a couple of L2 chargers, but we couldn't get one to work and the other was occupied. With a Tesla, we would have had to stop at the Columbia supercharger on the way out or back to top up for 15-20 minutes (according to ABRP). Leaving town, we don't want to stop because we don't know how bad Charlotte traffic will be and we're probably running late already thanks to the babysitter. But we don't want to skip just in case there's a problem with the destination charger. Either way, our 90-minute-or-less travel time is now into into 2-hour territory.

Ironically, we happened to have a Model X that night for an overnight test drive, but were specifically asked by the dealer (not Tesla) not to put that many miles on it. So we didn't get to test the scenario.

 

[avoigt]

Back to basics: Who is a serious competitor to Tesla? My answer: I don't see anybody and don't even see someone attempting to. Today we experience an industry that is trying to talk Tesla "small" but does not invest to provide a car with services that is somewhere near. The denial phase is not over yet...

Just for clarity we should define Tesla as Tesla the company that produces cars in a network scheme besides many other products and services like energy, charging and AP to name just a few.

Maybe we should boil the question down to: Who is a serious competitor to Tesla's cars?

Even in that respect I have a hard time to identify one but being forced to I would say, there is none today but if Porsche could execute and deliver on promises they may be one to the Model S. BTW, some specs "leaked out" lately and I believe it was an attempt to test the reaction of the market.

So lets take that for second seriously and assume Porsche's mission E will be a comparable competition to the Model S. Without a charger network that is build globally and better performance like the promised 80% charge in 15 minutes its not of high value for an EV user. The announced charging network is aiming for 400 chargers in a variety of European countries and even if they deliver on the 350 KW I can not imagine that its attractive for anybody given the distance between chargers. Yes, one day you need start building like Tesla did but in fact the market for Porsches's EVs will be limited as its not a mass market they aim and produce for, secondly it will be a costs issue as its an independent company building it and they need to make money. So it will be more costly, less chargers and additional costs for a independent company - I am not even mentioning the issue with Sales. Also, the glimmer of Porsche is lost after the Roadster 2020 has been presented. Why should that slim group of fast car enthusiast pay a premium for a sports car that is not anywhere near the performance and specs of the Tesla Roadster?

I own a Porsche and can confirm that the service is just bad and the dealer network is doing all to collect superior prices from you with medium services. I don't think that I want to repeat that experience once I leave the ICE user community forever.