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Factory is shut for the week of July 27 for retooling for model X?
- Thread starter throwawayaccount
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- Model X
I still don't see any significant discrepancy between OP, Twiddler and Eds (OP not quoted here for brevity).
Twiddler and Eds seems to give a plausible answer to the question proposed by OPs post - if production starts now, what are Tesla building because Founders are not a big number and other orders we assume won't come until later. Twiddler and Eds both refer to the first cars as demo cars, which would answer the question posed by OPs post. Eds of course goes further and claims only 100 or so actual deliveries (Signatures, I read) would make it later this year, but all OP, Twiddler and Eds seem to agree on that significant manufacturing starts prior - of demo cars.
All this (or any one of) can of course be false but I see no major contradiction.
They *are* in contradiction of many views on TMC and this thread that Tesla would never start by building demo cars. If they do start that way, quite a many people would be wrong.
Assembly or components production makes no difference to the accuracy of these claims, mere parts manufacturing at start is plausible of course.
Also to Larry Chanin: Eds obviously claims 100 or so initial customer deliveries this year, prior to his/her alleged final parts coming in early 2016, he/she is not in contradiction there about not wanting early cars.
Twiddler and Eds seems to give a plausible answer to the question proposed by OPs post - if production starts now, what are Tesla building because Founders are not a big number and other orders we assume won't come until later. Twiddler and Eds both refer to the first cars as demo cars, which would answer the question posed by OPs post. Eds of course goes further and claims only 100 or so actual deliveries (Signatures, I read) would make it later this year, but all OP, Twiddler and Eds seem to agree on that significant manufacturing starts prior - of demo cars.
All this (or any one of) can of course be false but I see no major contradiction.
They *are* in contradiction of many views on TMC and this thread that Tesla would never start by building demo cars. If they do start that way, quite a many people would be wrong.
Assembly or components production makes no difference to the accuracy of these claims, mere parts manufacturing at start is plausible of course.
Also to Larry Chanin: Eds obviously claims 100 or so initial customer deliveries this year, prior to his/her alleged final parts coming in early 2016, he/she is not in contradiction there about not wanting early cars.
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NigelM
Recovering Member
Putting all the rumours together (o.k., the ones I like ) my guess is:
- Next week they are building cars for stores, that gives them a chance to work out final problems - if something is wrong with a car, it is not as critical as with one delivered to a customer, they can just leave it at the store and not have anyone drive it.
- At the same time, founders are configuring
- While they ship around the demo cars to stores, founders get their cars at a reveal ceremony (maybe shortly before Pebble Beach event), next day they have cars in many stores to show, and stick to their word of 'no reveal before deliveries' because founders have theirs.
- Same time configurator for everyone goes online.
I know that is pretty optimistic but who knows...
) my guess is:- Next week they are building cars for stores, that gives them a chance to work out final problems - if something is wrong with a car, it is not as critical as with one delivered to a customer, they can just leave it at the store and not have anyone drive it.
- At the same time, founders are configuring
- While they ship around the demo cars to stores, founders get their cars at a reveal ceremony (maybe shortly before Pebble Beach event), next day they have cars in many stores to show, and stick to their word of 'no reveal before deliveries' because founders have theirs.
- Same time configurator for everyone goes online.
I know that is pretty optimistic but who knows...
Putting all the rumours together (o.k., the ones I like
- Next week they are building cars for stores, that gives them a chance to work out final problems - if something is wrong with a car, it is not as critical as with one delivered to a customer, they can just leave it at the store and not have anyone drive it.
- At the same time, founders are configuring
- While they ship around the demo cars to stores, founders get their cars at a reveal ceremony (maybe shortly before Pebble Beach event), next day they have cars in many stores to show, and stick to their word of 'no reveal before deliveries' because founders have theirs.
- Same time configurator for everyone goes online.
I know that is pretty optimistic but who knows...
Aside from any commentary on Pebble date which is not included, that general sequence of events would seem to fit OP, Eds and Twiddler's posts in my opinion. If Tesla builds a significant number of demos first and Founders only after those, it would fit with the referral competition Founders configuration timing a little better too - allowing building of that Founders still prior to Signature #1 (if it can be ordered custom configured at all, that is).
Of course the rumors also claim press/test drive event use for those initial demos. That is normal procedure for competition, so not implausible.
Sounds like a plausible theory for order of events, then. However, impossible to say if true yet, of course.
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By the way, just to be clear I don't know if OP, Eds or Twiddler can be trusted or right at all. I have no such insight or even opinion.
Merely considering if what they say can fit. I think it can. Doesn't mean they all or some couldn't be completely wrong of course.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Can you elaborate why it is obvious?
I agree the changing details of his/her story (location and discrepancy between first and later posts) could be suspect, but making a call on it based just on that seems premature to me. You know more?
To me, the only thing that is obvious is that arguing the merits or faults of Eds trustworthiness is a zero-sum game. Well, and that discussing it anymore brings this thread well beyond the ad nauseum point.
Let's just let things play out. I believe we know who believes what may or may not be possible with regards to the OPs claims. With time, we'll see how the chips fall. At that time, you can feel superior, inferior, or indifferent, depending on what your self confidence levels are.
Let's just let things play out. I believe we know who believes what may or may not be possible with regards to the OPs claims. With time, we'll see how the chips fall. At that time, you can feel superior, inferior, or indifferent, depending on what your self confidence levels are.
But that would go against Elon's mandate that we would not see the X until deliveries began.
Not that I don't think this would be a great idea though as I very much would like to put hands on and a tape measure to the space behind the second row before making a purchasing decision. Well, that and the overall length specs but I trust what they post online for those.
There is no reason that the first <number> hundred cars off the line go to Tesla stores for a surprise reveal on launch day, and also at the same time, they start "delivering" founders cars on the same day.
Design studio opens, and boom, they start cranking out cars. You know once the design studio does open, at least 1,000 people will finalize their orders in the first 24 hours, and the line can start cranking out customer X's. Others can wait a few days, go to a Tesla store to see one in person and get a sense for what they are ordering...
Again if the line can produce both X and S there's no slowdown from a production standpoint doing it this way.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
I noticed that the local store here normally has two Model S cars and the skateboard in the store. When I walked by the last time, there was only the skateboard and one model S. It could of course easily be that they were in the middle of swapping them out but it could also be that they are making room for a Model X. (wishful thinking perhaps from my side :smile
Mine too! Especially since I just figured RHD = Right Hand Drive and LHD = Left Hand Drive. I hate acronyms (so why did I go into medicine?). The suspense is killing my productivity.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I don't "know" more, but he/she was suspect from the beginning. They clearly have an agenda, and it isn't simply elucidation...not to mention that they haven't logged in in nearly 2 weeks, and refused to provide any verifiable information.
I'm aware that you have a tendency to give people the benefit of the doubt, but there is just too much evidence to the contrary for me to do so.
Thanks. I added those two to the list here:
EV Acronyms - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The conference call on Wednesday should clear up all the confusion. I think we'll know by Wednesday night if they were telling the truth or up to no good.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
We don't know. Probably either an Internet troll or someone working for one of Tesla's suppliers. Link to his/her original thread through here: Factory is shut down this week to start X production next week - Page 17
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Fair enough, it is certainly OK to doubt Eds considering we have no way of confirming any of his/her story. I would add, though, a lot of his/her unwillingness could be explained by a desire not to reveal sources.
That said, Eds changing locations and the back story there - unless a poor attempt at disguising sources - was certainly reminiscent of what Internet trolls sometimes do. Him/her being the latter is plausible.
I don't see it quite like that. Employees and contractors certainly receive instructions and reasons from upper management - and where not, deduct them themselves (accurately or inaccurately). Thus I'd agree what he/she says of Elon certainly is likely to be hearsay or conjecture, but not unlike the kind any real employee or contractor of any organization could have of upper management. His/her story certainly *could* be a real account from someone in Tesla's supply chain. It could also be a reasonable(ish)-sounding trolling attempt.
I agree with ohhman this being quite futile, though, at this point as nothing can be verified - so consider my ponderings merely theoretical musings on sources and leaks. I mean, as far as Model X news go, that's the best we've got until Tesla spills the beans.
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Of course, that is part of the risk with anonymous sources. That said, it is the same with real anonymous sources. To consider the latter, one has to live with the risk of former. Ignoring both is an easy road some like to take and that's fine, but sometimes the harder road can bear some fruit.
Do I think the multitude of analyzing and speculating have provided us with a more accurate pre-release view of Model X and its release timeline? Absolutely. Do I think it could have been achieved without considering anonymous sources? Not really.
The likes of Eds are just a part of a puzzle. In isolation a risky unknown, but overall as a whole part of something useful.
Regarding going from reservation to confirmed order - what time window will be allowed for a reservation to be required to be confirmed? Would it be 1-month or more? Right now, MS undergoes a 7-day auto-confirm window. I have to wonder how long reservations will be held as refundable before being converted to non-refundable auto-confirmed. Consider a Norway reservation where they may not see a MX demo model for a few months, would their reservations be kept unlocked until they get demos in for physical inspection by the reserving party?
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