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Few new superchargers in the US?
- Thread starter cstork
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Except, they didn't do that at all.
Not sure how you missed this when the data is pretty clearly posted in the thread.
2015 (no model 3 pre-orders exist at end of 2015)->2016 (when they had all the pre-orders in) they added 125 stations.
2016->2017, during which time they not only knew all the pre-order #s, they actually began delivering 3s to people...they added...125 stations.
zero change in annual rate of station builds from before and after they knew how many pre-orders.
The fleet got 4 times larger in that time, while the total # of stations only got ~1.7 times larger.
17->18 the US fleet got ANOTHER 2.5 times larger in just 1 year... and the total # of stations only got... about 1.35 times larger.
From end of '15 to end of '19 the fleet got 7.33 times larger. The # of supercharging stations got 2.36 times larger.
That's not sustainable long term.
I agree # of cars to # of stations ratio isn't the entire story... but it's a pretty important part of it... and Tesla has- just as they did on delivery logistics and planning....just as they continue to do on service centers... not even remotely invested enough in trying to keep up.
Don't get me wrong- I understand why they've struggled to keep CapEx low to stem losses or even show the occasional profit... but long-term this is (another) systemic issue they're going to need to eventually put money into fixing.
There were already pics of hour plus long lines to charge over this Thanksgiving in some places. By next thanksgiving at current rate of fleet growth and SC growth that's not only going to be worse it's going to happen in a lot more places.
Much like the generally slow, crap, service you can't reach with a telephone this isn't slowing down sales right now because supply remains constrained on EVs. But that won't be true forever, and unless Tesla fixes systemic issues like these they're in for a bad time when that catches up to em.
I don't even care that much about SCs personally- I rarely use them, if I"m going more than ~500 miles I'm gonna save time and fly anyway... but I do care about Tesla remaining not just a viable, but industry leading, company long term.. and letting these issues build up unaddressed until the market FORCES you to is a terrible way to run a company. (see again the delivery hell and service hell issues everyone knew was coming but Tesla steadfastly refused to plan or spend for)
Given you can count the number of them on one hand that doesn't seem an especially significant factor.
Especially when half the posts about em are how they either have a bunch of stalls out of order or they're not actually charging all that fast... (there were recently a number of them on this for at least the Vegas location for example)
We definitely need to know the year over year growth in number of stalls as opposed to number of locations. Number of locations on rural Interstates is likely to grow at negligible rates in the near term. In order to cover those Interstates a lot of superchargers had to be built up front before there were many cars. It is definitely not necessary for number of locations to rise in proportion to number of cars. Once the long distance networks are built out, then number of stalls should rise more in line with number of cars. But only for the period before other DCFC networks become viable options. I fear this is going to be slow as the other EV's currently being offered are very marginal for US travel distances and thus hardly selling at all here vs. in Europe.
The bump from 120kW to 150kW represents a one shot 20% boost in capacity. v3 will help some over time.
Since April 2016 I've had 166 supercharge sessions and had to wait in line 4x, with the maximum wait being 5 cars ~15 minutes. Even though I'm in California it helps to be retired and not traveling during the most congested times. From following the forum and some personal observations, the adequacy of the network is a very local situation. San Diego was one of the worst situations with only one 12 stall charger through summer 2018. Now there are 5 more locations with 96 stalls.
The bump from 120kW to 150kW represents a one shot 20% boost in capacity. v3 will help some over time.
Since April 2016 I've had 166 supercharge sessions and had to wait in line 4x, with the maximum wait being 5 cars ~15 minutes. Even though I'm in California it helps to be retired and not traveling during the most congested times. From following the forum and some personal observations, the adequacy of the network is a very local situation. San Diego was one of the worst situations with only one 12 stall charger through summer 2018. Now there are 5 more locations with 96 stalls.
Never waited in NC before. Have come close. I think on Black Friday last year almost had to wait - like someone pulling out within 30 secs of arriving.
There are lots of factors changing the dynamics. The most obvious one is that 3's are faster at charging. The next is that 3's LR have bigger ranges. Next - FUSC went away. Idle charges came on line.
And then the last most important one (already mentioned) is that most rural chargers (outside of CA) have been ghost towns for years. We still have some that are ghost towns. Those don't need to be expanded. Not this year or next.
NC - 17 stations. 2.3% of superchargers and we have 3.1% of population. Fairly good for an non-Carb East coast state. But not over done either.
There are lots of factors changing the dynamics. The most obvious one is that 3's are faster at charging. The next is that 3's LR have bigger ranges. Next - FUSC went away. Idle charges came on line.
And then the last most important one (already mentioned) is that most rural chargers (outside of CA) have been ghost towns for years. We still have some that are ghost towns. Those don't need to be expanded. Not this year or next.
NC - 17 stations. 2.3% of superchargers and we have 3.1% of population. Fairly good for an non-Carb East coast state. But not over done either.
Also, I think it is important to remember that the Model S and X all have free supercharging (or almost all of them) while very few Model 3 owners have this. It would be interesting to know the kwh charged per each vehicle type and the kwh charged that is free vs paid.
Some cars also have some limited amount of free charging due to referrals, etc.
For sure Tesla is modeling these stats and is, basically, just writing off some of the free charging as marketing, but trying to get to a point where the superchargers pay for themselves, eventually...at least in terms of energy use.
The Model 3 is also much more efficient in terms of miles per kwh consumed.
Some cars also have some limited amount of free charging due to referrals, etc.
For sure Tesla is modeling these stats and is, basically, just writing off some of the free charging as marketing, but trying to get to a point where the superchargers pay for themselves, eventually...at least in terms of energy use.
The Model 3 is also much more efficient in terms of miles per kwh consumed.
I referred a friend in Eagle Colorado who bought a Model 3PD in September 2018. I would say Colorado is a region where supercharger coverage still leaves much to be desired. The southwest corner of the state is not viable for Tesla travel IMHO especially during ski season. Last March we drove from Salt Lake to New Mexico via Telluride, Durango and Wolf Creek, and never would have considered using our Tesla, even the new Raven. At an absolute minimum, chargers are needed in Montrose, Durango and Pagosa Springs to enable travel to the ski areas.
The situation is not great along the more populated I-70 corridor either. Idaho Springs under construction now is the only addition since Model 3 came on the scene in 2018. My friend says Silverthorne routinely runs at 120kW not 150kW and he is usually paired while charging there, so he's not experiencing the fast charging rates I get most of the time with my Raven here in California.
Finally, winter in the Colorado mountains means driven miles are at least 150% of rated miles, so it's often necessary to charge to 80-90% when traveling there. That climate zone calls for greater density of superchargers beyond the minimum I mentioned in the first paragraph. My friend says there are lots of Model 3's around Denver now and a fair number in the ski towns too.
The situation is not great along the more populated I-70 corridor either. Idaho Springs under construction now is the only addition since Model 3 came on the scene in 2018. My friend says Silverthorne routinely runs at 120kW not 150kW and he is usually paired while charging there, so he's not experiencing the fast charging rates I get most of the time with my Raven here in California.
Finally, winter in the Colorado mountains means driven miles are at least 150% of rated miles, so it's often necessary to charge to 80-90% when traveling there. That climate zone calls for greater density of superchargers beyond the minimum I mentioned in the first paragraph. My friend says there are lots of Model 3's around Denver now and a fair number in the ski towns too.
Well, yeah, there are only going to be people using them in places where people who own Teslas actually go, and it is going to be worse on days when they travel. That kind of goes without saying. That said, I've never seen "lots of chargers", though, except on weeknights. Even places like Gilroy and Salinas stay pretty busy on weekends and during the day, from what I've seen. I wouldn't call either of those urban.
Not really. Statistically, your odds of finding an open pair at a busy station are approximately zero, and if the station isn't busy, the odds of that extra boost resulting in you getting out soon enough to make a difference for somebody else are also approximately zero. It does, under some circumstances, get people on their way sooner, which is nice, but it is unlikely to relieve congestion much at all, because the station's total capacity is unchanged.
That's not how the bump from 120 to 150 works though. That extra power is linearly available through the entire power curve, not just an added 30 kW at the top. The way it was achieved was that each of the 12 individual chargers that make up a supercharger were uncorked to give a slightly higher power (~2 kW). So, even if you're plugging in second and getting only a single block of 3 chargers, now you're getting ~36 kW instead of the 30 kW you would have gotten at 120 kW stations. And, of course, the car that you're paired with is also getting a higher rate as well. The point being that for very busy stations, even though these minor gains aren't going to make much difference for any individual car, when those small gains are compounded over multiple stalls and multiple charging sessions it does make a difference to capacity and station throughput.
Are you sure? I was under the impression that the entirety of the improvement came from allowing all of the chargers in the stack to service one side of the pair simultaneously, where previously it kept some number of chargers in reserve for the second vehicle even if there was no car there.
No, that's never how it worked. Superchargers are made of 12 individual chargers bundled into 4 blocks/groups of 3 chargers each. Before the upgrade to 150 kW, each charger used to only give ~10 kW; 12*10 = 120 kW, and the blocks were 30 kW. Now each individual charger gives ~12 kW; 12*12 = 144 kW and blocks are 36 kW. The actual operation hasn't changed. The first car to plug in gets access to all 4 blocks and therefore full power. The second car to plug in gets a minimum of 1 block or as many blocks as the first car isn't using (up to 3), and additional blocks are then transferred to the second car as they become available (i.e. when the first car tapers enough to no longer use a block, it is transferred to the second car).
There was some small amount of power that, in the past, was held in reserve. The hardware for the 120 kW stations was really always capable of outputting to 135 kW even before the change. But this margin was also from the individual chargers being able to put out higher power, not because chargers or blocks were kept in reserve.
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