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JeffK
Well-Known Member
I'd bet anything we will see $35k bare base model Model 3 deliveries within 2018.
I ordered mine at a sales center on the first day, own a Model S and live in CA so we will probably be one of the early ones to have an opportunity to get one. Having said that, my impression from about a quarter of others that are in our position is that if they up the $35k base price, miss 2017 deliveries, lose federal and state (if applicable) tax credits, and we aren't given an opportunity to actually drive one before ordering, we will likely ask for a refund of our deposit and get something else.
If Tesla Motors hits $50k retail Average Selling Price and maintains a profit margin that allows room for product development, it should be a success.
This assumes the typical M3 is sold with a $20k drivetrain, and a $30k chassis, body, and interior.
Could it hit $15k/$20K = $35K, sure, but the illusion of a Free Lunch is going to bite somebody in the ass. A $15k EV drivetrain is not a 200 mile/200HP class system right now. And I'm pretty sure the M3 will not be sold with under 250HP.
So all the cost reductions will occur in the body and interior, and $15k is a lot of gadgets and materials.
This assumes the typical M3 is sold with a $20k drivetrain, and a $30k chassis, body, and interior.
Could it hit $15k/$20K = $35K, sure, but the illusion of a Free Lunch is going to bite somebody in the ass. A $15k EV drivetrain is not a 200 mile/200HP class system right now. And I'm pretty sure the M3 will not be sold with under 250HP.
So all the cost reductions will occur in the body and interior, and $15k is a lot of gadgets and materials.
Before the first reveal it was tweeted that they would, indeed, follow the same pattern and produce and deliver the more highly optioned vehicles first. Since then however, with the unexpected numbers of reservations it has been widely speculated that that will no longer be the case, especially given the expedited ramp up. There is also a mythical tweet out there that has been referenced but never (at least not that I know of) actually seen, where Elon says that they won't do it that way. Many people also point out that, with the flak they took over the cost of the initial Model Xs produced, they won't do the same thing and get roasted by the media.
However, no one knows for sure, hopefully we'll get something definitive in the spring at the next reveal.
Strongly disagree. Tesla has very deliberately given its employees priority for Model 3 reservations (which I think is a very nice policy) and many of those employees can only afford a $35K car and may stretch to manage it. If some of those early reservation holders want a base version 3 then I think that is what they will get and they will get their cars before the first non-employee reservation holders.
It would send a terrible message if it became known that employees who are early reservation holders and wanted a base car were not able to get one "ever", which is exactly what your post stated. In fact your post goes farther by saying that no one will ever get a base Model 3. That is absurd.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I am reasonably certain I'll be able to get AT LEAST: AWD, big battery, and APv2.0 (all of my "must-haves") for under the current cost of a base Model S.
And honestly, I'm reasonably certain I'll be able to get my "must-haves" for less than $55K, meaning the extra ~$11k or so between my "must-have" 3 and a base Model S is money I can spend on options.
For my needs and desires, the 3 is the better value.
And honestly, I'm reasonably certain I'll be able to get my "must-haves" for less than $55K, meaning the extra ~$11k or so between my "must-have" 3 and a base Model S is money I can spend on options.
For my needs and desires, the 3 is the better value.
Here's what would stop me from buying a Model 3:
No RWD only model.
Curb weight over 3800lb.
Range less than 150 miles at 75mph.
0-60mph in more than 6.5 seconds.
No ability to turn off TC and SC completely.
Poor handling.
Lack of front seat helmet clearance. NO GLASS ABOVE HELMET please.
Yeah, I want a sporty electric car than doesn't weigh what a pickup weighs. Think FRS/86/BRZ on juice.
No RWD only model.
Curb weight over 3800lb.
Range less than 150 miles at 75mph.
0-60mph in more than 6.5 seconds.
No ability to turn off TC and SC completely.
Poor handling.
Lack of front seat helmet clearance. NO GLASS ABOVE HELMET please.
Yeah, I want a sporty electric car than doesn't weigh what a pickup weighs. Think FRS/86/BRZ on juice.
What if AWD was included in the $35k base price? Do you just prefer RWD?
What is helmet clearance?
To me it is clear that the Model 3 base version will be RWD. Dual Motors will be an option.
Sunlight
Member
If Tesla are going to lose any money on the base model (at least initially) and they have offered employees first bite of the cherry then Tesla has a win-win situation and can even 'afford' to lose a bit per car if they are going to employees (who are also less likely to gripe in the media about early model issues - if any!)
Then pour out profitable upper end cars and deliver as few base models as Tesla can get away with (in the media....) until the whole cost/benefit/profit has panned out clearly.
Then pour out profitable upper end cars and deliver as few base models as Tesla can get away with (in the media....) until the whole cost/benefit/profit has panned out clearly.
I don't like AWD except for production car drag racing or pickup truck drag racing and sled pulling.
RWD reduces the weight, and allows the front tires to use 100% of their available traction for lateral G's. It's no surprise the quickest AutoX cars are RWD.
I hate hitting my helmet on the roof. Personal taste. If the roof is padded, not a big deal. 7 year old pic:
Tesla has already shown it can do very expensive EVs. With Model 3 the challenge is achieving class leading value for money and features which is what EM has promised and what the entire automotive industry is rattling in fear for. And as with any mass produced product, Tesla will have to quickly find and fix issues before production ramp-up.
The privileged among us may be perfectly happy to pay more for the car but make no mistake, Tesla will have to deliver on the promise to offer a class leading EV base configuration. Not on paper and not after 3 years , the 35k base is THE main goal of the Model 3 project.
The privileged among us may be perfectly happy to pay more for the car but make no mistake, Tesla will have to deliver on the promise to offer a class leading EV base configuration. Not on paper and not after 3 years , the 35k base is THE main goal of the Model 3 project.
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If current facts hold true, one thing we can say is that the $35K Model 3 will be black.
I suspect they'll deliver a few base models at the beginning too. Really the dynamics of the MOdel 3 market are different than any before, so I'm uncertain how much precedent will influence decisions.
diamond.g
Active Member
I would be surprised if the Model 3 was under 3800 lbs. The Gen 1 Volt weighs as much and it appears to be a smaller car. Though the Gen II is lighter it does have a smallish battery.
