First Tesla Autonomous cross-country road trip

[Tam]

Originally, LAX to NYC Autonomous cross-country road trip was planned for December 2017.

However, second quarter earnings phone call hints a possible delay until 2018.

I guess it's harder than expected.

 

[croman]

Originally, LAX to NYC Autonomous cross-country road trip was planned for December 2017.

However, second quarter earnings phone call hints a possible delay until 2018.

I guess it's harder than expected.

Slight delay = 3 months in Elon time.

 

[pilotSteve]

Slight delay = 3 months in Elon time.

.... = 30 months of real time?

 

[Bladerskb]

Im not surprised and no one should be seeing this is exactly what i warned u ppl of for 10 straight months. Like how many times do i have to be right before people start noticing?

Even when tesla gets to doing any demo in 2018 it will be what others have already surpassed 3-6 years ago.

Plus its all about the feature capability. A audi car is able to do this years ago "
At one point during my drive, the A7 moved effortlessly into a relatively small slot in the right lane to make way for a faster car approaching from behind. It was seamless."

While a tesla fsd car might not be able to 3 years later

Elon already has a dozen eggs on his face relating to autopilot alone.

 

[croman]

@Bladerskb -- it wasn't hard to predict FSD wouldn't happen this year (demo or otherwise) but you were actually saying 2017 would happen but it was a useless demo and didn't prove FSD. Your hunger for approbation aside, you actually were part of the chorus saying 2017 but it was a lame/fixed demo. I'd dig up the posts but I don't care that much.

 

[RubberToe]

Like how many times do i have to be right before people start noticing?..

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. But people don't generally pay much attention to a stopped clock, for very good reasons.

RT

 

[Bladerskb]

@Bladerskb -- it wasn't hard to predict FSD wouldn't happen this year (demo or otherwise) but you were actually saying 2017 would happen but it was a useless demo and didn't prove FSD. Your hunger for approbation aside, you actually were part of the chorus saying 2017 but it was a lame/fixed demo. I'd dig up the posts but I don't care that much.

This is false. I have never made comments about the definity of a demo. But i have said constantly if a demo took place this year it will be rigged. Please dont put words in my mouth.

Everything i have said in this forum so far has been bulleye. I have a spotless record.

 

[Bladerskb]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. But people don't generally pay much attention to a stopped clock, for very good reasons.

RT

Can a clock be right 9 times in a day? Everything i have said on this forum has been bullseye

 

[lunitiks]

 

[Tam]

...Im not surprised...

You told me it's easy, so I am pretty much surprised!

 

[calisnow]

Im not surprised and no one should be seeing this is exactly what i warned u ppl of for 10 straight months. Like how many times do i have to be right before people start noticing?.

Lol hey at least you finally admit that you're on an Internet forum desperately seeking validation and self esteem! This is the first step to recovery - you're making progress!

 

[calisnow]

@Bladerskb - how bad is your real life? Do you have any friends? How about work? Do you get any recognition at work or are you that guy in the cubicle who eats lunch alone every day while mumbling to himself about how he could run the company better than the dumb boss he works for.

 

[tander]

Originally, LAX to NYC Autonomous cross-country road trip was planned for December 2017.

However, second quarter earnings phone call hints a possible delay until 2018.

I guess it's harder than expected.

The delay is probably more likely going by past track records, but from what I can glean he's playing it safe and trying to underpromise. I think people have really been confusing model s and x (which were placeholders till battery prices worked their way down) delays with the m3 and autopilot which are pretty much do asap as I understand it. Going from past history and caution the delay is probably the way to think about it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if in a few weeks or months S+X owners started getting miraculous updates.

 

[Bladerskb]

You told me it's easy, so I am pretty much surprised!

It is... remember that a good l2 systems can already do cross country +95% of the way.

Infact multiple people have done it using autopilot +96%

Approximately 96 percent of our drive was on Autopilot. Yes. Ninety-six percent, which translates to approximately 44 hours of driving without human intervention. I did about 1/3rd of the human driving, which translates to about half an hour, most of it in NYC traffic.

if you don't count urban drive time and simply highway they were on autopilot AP1 about 99% of the time.

So elon failing to hit his initial November/December timeline speaks volume to what i have been saying the past 10 months.
They are so behind its not even funny anymore. Plus we will see how their fsd is holding up right around September when they release EAP features..

Why? because i believe their EAP code is a fork of their FSD branch. although they can still go the path of least resistance and simply swap from using ultrasound for lane changing and use cameras and call it done.

The first method eliminates their 4 vs 8 camera pr speak but the second method rolls with it. Its looking more like the first than the latter which is good for all Tesla hopefuls out there.

 

[Tam]

...underpromise...

It might be because of the fast turnover of autopilot team.

It might also be because Elon is currently behind the timeline for the 1/23/2017 tweet:

"At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?"

"3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"

 

[tander]

It might be because of the fast turnover of autopilot team.

It might also be because Elon is currently behind the timeline for the 1/23/2017 tweet:

"At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?"

"3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"

That's a good point. Did he ever clarify that tweet? Could he have meant that it would depart but not be released to the public yet? The autopilot turnover was because the head guy was starting his own thing I thought (not because he was bad or something)? My understanding was that they have internally had full self-driving for a while now and have been trying to bank tons of data so they can prove it's irrefutably safer that people before releasing it. But maybe I misunderstood.

 

[Tam]

...Could he have meant that it would depart but not be released to the public yet? ...

I doubt it.

If something departs from the current feature such as an automatic charging snake-like cable-bot in 2015, it would be announced even though it is not ready for public for a long time.

We are talking about the difference between $5,000 and $8,000 features, 4 cameras VS 8 cameras.

There must be some difference.

...head guy...

The turn over is not just a few, an incomplete list is:

5/2015-6/2017: Berta Rodriguez-Hervas, computer vision -> nVidia

4/2015-2017: David Nistér Computer Vision Head -> nVidia

Left 6/2017: Minwoo Park, Visual Perception Lead

Left 6/2017: Yekeun Jeong, Geometric Vision Head

1/2017-6/2017: Chris Lattner, Autopilot Software VP

...have internally had full self-driving for a while now...

If so, it should reflect in California DMV Disengagement Report (How many human interventions made while on self-driving mode) as of up to 11/2016.

It showed Tesla only operated Self-Driving mode for 550 miles and suffered 182 disengagements.

Most likely, those 550 miles were the intensive rehearsal for the video clip demo.

...irrefutably safer...

Current Autopilot is definitely safer as long as driver is able to intervene timely with various scenarios. If driver is distracted, it's deadly.

 

[tander]

I doubt it.

If something departs from the current feature such as an automatic charging snake-like cable-bot in 2015, it would be announced even though it is not ready for public for a long time.

We are talking about the difference between $5,000 and $8,000 features, 4 cameras VS 8 cameras.

There must be some difference.




The turn over is not just a few, an incomplete list is:

5/2015-6/2017: Berta Rodriguez-Hervas, computer vision -> nVidia

4/2015-2017: David Nistér Computer Vision Head -> nVidia

Left 6/2017: Minwoo Park, Visual Perception Lead

Left 6/2017: Yekeun Jeong, Geometric Vision Head

1/2017-6/2017: Chris Lattner, Autopilot Software VP



If so, it should reflect in California DMV Disengagement Report (How many human interventions made while on self-driving mode) as of up to 11/2016.

It showed Tesla only operated Self-Driving mode for 550 miles and suffered 182 disengagements.

Most likely, those 550 miles were the intensive rehearsal for the video clip demo.



Current Autopilot is definitely safer as long as driver is able to intervene timely with various scenarios. If driver is distracted, it's deadly.

Hmmm, maybe it's just plain delayed... but I really don't think too much should be read into turnover, those guys (and their wives) are human after all and not immune to being poached by competitors or simply leaving because maybe Tesla is choosing a direction that is not their strong point, I think some of those departures coincide pretty well with the breakup with their previous autopilot partner. And the charger thing is really not apples to apples with self-driving, the charger thing is cool, self-driving is a huge societal shift. Maybe it's out of date but this vid from the former autopilot head is how I understood it.

 

[Tam]

Hmmm, maybe it's just plain delayed...

Thanks for Sterling Anderson's video.

It's very impressive on powerpoint but the fact is: Tesla has 8 cameras and the most it is using is only 1 or 2 front cameras.

He mentioned the car would find itself into the garage.

Right now, it can if it's a head-in because front cameras are active.

But it can't find its own way in reverse gear into a garage because the rearward cameras are not active. You have to line the car up perfectly outside for it to back itself in.

 

[malcolm]

Like how many times do i have to be right before people start noticing?

That's your new signature, right there.