People don't realize how big that is. That is bigger than the size of Manhattan and Brooklyn put together. A little less than half the size of Chicago. That is impressive no matter how small people think it is on a map.
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First time riding in a Waymo Driverless van
- Thread starter Bladerskb
- Start date
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Waymo and others (including Tesla) are putting significant resources into achieving FSD. They are doing it in different ways and with different paths.
Their marketing teams will be doing PR along the way to give their investors comfort that each of their systems will be the best choice.
Each will have successes and shortcomings as they move along and adapt.
Their marketing teams will be doing PR along the way to give their investors comfort that each of their systems will be the best choice.
Each will have successes and shortcomings as they move along and adapt.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I disagree that Waymo is dying or that they are a bad bet.
Waymo has 2 full self-driving cars for the robotaxi market and 2 full self-driving vehicles for the transportation market. And these vehicles are true full self-driving, able to operate in areas with no driver inside at all. Waymo has also brought down cost by a factor of 10. Waymo has over 20+ million autonomous miles. Waymo also has a robotaxi service for the public in AZ. That does not sound like a bad bet to me.
Now Tesla has been incredibly successfully when it comes to building EVs. Tesla cars are the best EVs on the market by far. And yes, Tesla has overcome immense obstacles to get to the incredible success that they have achieved. But when it comes to FSD, Tesla has disappointed. Tesla said that our cars had the necessary hardware for full self-driving in 2016 and that was false. 3.5 years later, Tesla still has no robotaxis and no real FSD at all.
And frankly, the idea that Tesla will somehow unlock robotaxi capability in our cars in a few months is incredibly unrealistic. Traffic light response requires driver confirmation. We don't have "turning at intersections" yet. And there are plenty of other features that our cars are missing. Our cars can't read speed limit signs. Our cars can respond to speed bumps. Our cars can't respond to emergency vehicles. Our cars can't respond to construction zones on city streets. Just to name a few scenarios. And these are all scenarios that Waymo and Cruise vehicles can respond to without a driver.
So when it comes to EVs, I bet on Tesla. But when it comes to FSD, I think it makes perfect sense to bet on Waymo which has demonstrated real FSD and has 4 FSD products on the market now rather than the company that promised FSD 3.5 years ago and still has not delivered FSD.
DanCar
Active Member
Lol. Waymo promised FSD several years ago also and hasn't delivered.
>Waymo has 2 full self-driving cars for the robotaxi market
What does that mean? If you think that means they have something that works (no employee in the car) available to the public then you are wrong. They do have something that they let people take a peak at now and then, not much different than Tesla did for investors.
>Waymo also has a robotaxi service for the public in AZ.
Very wrong. Unless your definition of robotaxi service means having a safety driver. I'm sure if it were profitable, Tesla would do the same, have experimental software that drives people around with a safety driver. Oh yeah, and occasionally skip the safety driver to fool the easily fooled into thinking it happens everyday. In my eyes waymo is scummy, publishing half truths in their press releases about a public robotaxi service. I have friends and family that live in Chandler and have not been able to ride, even with a safety driver, so waymo's definition of public is very contorted.
I do agree waymo is ahead in the tech category, but they lack the balls of steel that Tesla has. And that is very needed when it comes to the possibility of spilling blood.
>Waymo has 2 full self-driving cars for the robotaxi market
What does that mean? If you think that means they have something that works (no employee in the car) available to the public then you are wrong. They do have something that they let people take a peak at now and then, not much different than Tesla did for investors.
>Waymo also has a robotaxi service for the public in AZ.
Very wrong. Unless your definition of robotaxi service means having a safety driver. I'm sure if it were profitable, Tesla would do the same, have experimental software that drives people around with a safety driver. Oh yeah, and occasionally skip the safety driver to fool the easily fooled into thinking it happens everyday. In my eyes waymo is scummy, publishing half truths in their press releases about a public robotaxi service. I have friends and family that live in Chandler and have not been able to ride, even with a safety driver, so waymo's definition of public is very contorted.
I do agree waymo is ahead in the tech category, but they lack the balls of steel that Tesla has. And that is very needed when it comes to the possibility of spilling blood.
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Ok, I guess time will tell.
I'm sure if I go digging I'll find Waymo/Cruise claims that have not come true in the predicted timeline.
Development is tough and things change, I still believe Tesla will deliver in the end and if they can't with the current hardware, they'll provide a path to meeting their goals. Elon is as competitive as they get.
How many passenger car miles do Waymo/Cruise have on the highway btw?
(Where the deadliest accidents occur)
We must remember why this technology is primarily being developed, to save lives.
I argue that Tesla has had a much greater (and will continue improve) impact than Waymo/Cruise and this is what really matters in the end. The goal is not to kill off the entire taxi/trucking industrie's workforce but an unfortunate byproduct of self-driving robots.
It'd be interesting to have an FSD feature comparison table with associated positive impact on our society for all 3 competitors.
PS: for all of those who disagree with me, it's nothing personal and I enjoy the counterarguments and agree with some as well. At the end of the day though, I see timelines pushed all the time in my industry when we are trying to develop things that do not yet exist, but perseverance, real leadership (underrated) and a clear purpose is what helps win in the long run.
I suggest reading "Start with Why - Simon Sinek".
I get frustrated that my car isn't driving me everywhere right now as Elon told me in his tweets and presos, but I get over it because today, Autopilot can do 90% of my daily driving and takes care of the most annoying/boring part (highway) and has saved me from distracted drivers on a rediculous amount of occasions. My safety and that of others on the road is what counts for me at the end of the day and my car just keeps getting safer and safer.
I'm sure if I go digging I'll find Waymo/Cruise claims that have not come true in the predicted timeline.
Development is tough and things change, I still believe Tesla will deliver in the end and if they can't with the current hardware, they'll provide a path to meeting their goals. Elon is as competitive as they get.
How many passenger car miles do Waymo/Cruise have on the highway btw?
(Where the deadliest accidents occur)
We must remember why this technology is primarily being developed, to save lives.
I argue that Tesla has had a much greater (and will continue improve) impact than Waymo/Cruise and this is what really matters in the end. The goal is not to kill off the entire taxi/trucking industrie's workforce but an unfortunate byproduct of self-driving robots.
It'd be interesting to have an FSD feature comparison table with associated positive impact on our society for all 3 competitors.
PS: for all of those who disagree with me, it's nothing personal and I enjoy the counterarguments and agree with some as well. At the end of the day though, I see timelines pushed all the time in my industry when we are trying to develop things that do not yet exist, but perseverance, real leadership (underrated) and a clear purpose is what helps win in the long run.
I suggest reading "Start with Why - Simon Sinek".
I get frustrated that my car isn't driving me everywhere right now as Elon told me in his tweets and presos, but I get over it because today, Autopilot can do 90% of my daily driving and takes care of the most annoying/boring part (highway) and has saved me from distracted drivers on a rediculous amount of occasions. My safety and that of others on the road is what counts for me at the end of the day and my car just keeps getting safer and safer.
As mentioned already, Tesla's ambitions are broad, whereas companies like Waymo and Cruise are more focused on perfecting self-driving which is why I believe they have the upper hand. And their ultimate business model seems to be the sale of their systems to vehicle manufacturers which could deal a big blow to any other technology not mature enough to compete. They don't need to build or sell cars themselves. Luckily, Tesla is more a hardware company than software. However, I have doubts they'll be the leader in the FSD space given their current history. At the same time, I don't believe they need to be. If they could perfect their current L2 system, that alone would take them to the next level. IMO, a big clue would be in the coming year.
Agree with your conclusion, this year will be very telling.
With regards to the beginning of your statement, this assumes other car companies will matter. Maybe Toyota and VW, but this assumes they aren't 5-7 years behind Tesla when it comes to making an EV, and multiple credible sources (ex: Sandy Munro) confirm competitors are indeed 5-7 years behind. It just takes a quick look at the stock of each car company to see the direction things are going. If Tesla's competitors cannot make a price-competitive EV (battery day will be very interesting) than that point is moot. How will they afford to integrate LIDARs and pay Waymo/Cruise royalties and stay competitive?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I appreciate a good debate and discussion too even if I disagree.
I do see Tesla owners with similar feelings as you. I've talked to Tesla owners who have told me that they don't care about the SAE levels for example when I tried to explain to them that Tesla's AP is only L2. For them, AP that facilitates most of their driving is good enough. I don't think they really care about actual FSD. So I think this discussion of Waymo plays into that. The fact is that Waymo does have better FSD than Tesla. That's an indisputable fact if you know anything about how autonomous driving really works. But it seems very academic to them plus they can't use a Waymo. They can drive their Tesla and they love AP and they love how it makes driving easier and safer so that counts to them. It's a tangible and practical benefit. I get that.
I appreciate a good debate and discussion too even if I disagree.
I do see Tesla owners with similar feelings as you. I've talked to Tesla owners who have told me that they don't care about the SAE levels for example when I tried to explain to them that Tesla's AP is only L2. For them, AP that facilitates most of their driving is good enough. I don't think they really care about actual FSD. So I think this discussion of Waymo plays into that. The fact is that Waymo does have better FSD than Tesla. That's an indisputable fact if you know anything about how autonomous driving really works. But it seems very academic to them plus they can't use a Waymo. They can drive their Tesla and they love AP and they love how it makes driving easier and safer so that counts to them. It's a tangible and practical benefit. I get that.
I guess I value real-world impact more than a tech demo. I've seen too many incredible technologies and ideas die because they are just that, technologies and ideas. Humans value purpose and things that affect them, and aren't we humans at the end of the day?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I get that. I just don't agree that Waymo's FSD is just a tech demo that won't pan out. Waymo's FSD is having a real world impact.
Eno Deb
Active Member
I didn't drive in a Waymo car, but I did have the opportunity to ride in a Cruise vehicle in downtown San Francisco. There was a safety driver, but he didn't have to intervene once in a 20+ minute drive, which included left turns, driving around double parked cars, giving pedestrians the right of way on turns and many other things. Tesla's FSD is a joke compared to that.
DanCar
Active Member
Yeah a real world impact crater. Losing billions shuttling around people in expensive vehicles with 1 or 2 safety drivers in them. Will it go down in history as a huge boondoggle?
DanCar
Active Member
Do you have a video? Can those safety drivers be clever? Are you going to notice everything they do?
I get that as well and Tesla needs competitors to keep them on their toes regardless. It will be an interesting few years.
Shall we call the winner the first to:
1) drive (without causing an accident) from point A to B in the USA with no human in vehicle or remote control.
2) do so without needing a human to re-charge/refuel the vehicle
3) do so year-round in rain/sun/night/snow/hail
4) if there's a tie, the solution with the lowest cost per trip wins.
??
Shall we call the winner the first to:
1) drive (without causing an accident) from point A to B in the USA with no human in vehicle or remote control.
2) do so without needing a human to re-charge/refuel the vehicle
3) do so year-round in rain/sun/night/snow/hail
4) if there's a tie, the solution with the lowest cost per trip wins.
??
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I think that's been said about Tesla since at least 2016. So far, AP doesn't seem to have progressed a whole lot past the AP1 in my 2015 Model S. I can sell rocks from my front yard and call them nuclear fusion devices. Just because they're available to the general public now doesn't mean I'm leading the technology. Especially if they don't, you know, actually work. (The Rock 3.0 upgrade really will supply your house with energy, once we have all the kinks worked out.)
Eno Deb
Active Member
We were not allowed to take video.
I sat right next to the driver and he didn't touch the wheel or the pedals. Of course he might have been controlling the car through telepathy.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
DanCar
Active Member
Sorry, I'm not going to let deceivers go. But would be great if people that are perpetuating the Waymo myth that they have L4 now readily available to the public stop. It is simple false, a lie, a wrong doing. I'll by happy when they have L4 truly available to the public, but until then, stop lying for them. I've corrected you many times but you keep believing and perpetuating the lie.
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