First time riding in a Waymo Driverless van

[Bitdepth]

Our repeated argument is that you assert that Waymo has L4 right now. I'm saying it doesn't. You quote this stuff as proof. I'm saying it is not proof because it is not readily available to the public. "Could ride" is a cop-out. We all could all get a ride to the moon. Doesn't mean anything.

Does that sound like readily available to the public? Absolutely not. This means no public driverless rides (have to be chosen to be a member of waymo one), not readily available, no L4 right now, and a lot of B.S. on this forum.

Not being readily available is not a prerequisite to being designated as L4 no matter how much you want it to. You can call it a marketing ploy like some people would like it to be but you don't get to decide what qualifies as L4 just because you feel like it with an arbitrary metric. The Waymo service is open to select people that are part of the trial program, they make quarterly reports to the required government body. I agree with you on one thing though, there has been a rise of bullshit on this forum over the past couple of weeks. This forum has become unbearable to read

Tesla has made stronger false statements. Are you equally or more impressed with what Tesla has said?

Are you impressed with the "eventually" statement, then yeah eventually in 2025 or is that 2030? Either way it will be awesome when it arrives, but it is distant from today or as you put it "right now".

Elon musk has lied numerous times, lets call it what it is, about the state of their autonomous program and has nothing to show for it. Yet I am impressed with Navigate on Autopilot and Smart Summon. Waymo has a working level 4 self driving pilot taxi program while Elon musk has made promises and zero delivery, not even a beta pilot self driving robo taxi program. There has never been a random sighting of a fully autonomous self driving tesla. If there was such a thing, people would record and post it online. So no we can't lump Waymo and Tesla into the same category in terms autonomous vehicles. Tesla will get there but when is not known while waymo has a working product used by a select group of the general public.

 

[DanCar]

So FSD has to be available to the entire general public to be considered L4? ...

Contrary to what you have said in the past, you can't go to chandler and get a driverless ride. People are rightfully more impressed with technology they can use.

 

[ThomasD]

That is a lot of idle time. With the amount of miles these cars have logged these cars should be able to handle the majority of situations and Weather. Why won't they ungeofence these cars. Also why aren't any of these cars able to transport people with disabilities I also noticed that these cars won't operate in the ghettos.

 

[Watts_Up]

Which do you think will be available first:

1. Driverless autonomous robot taxis

2. Pilotless self-flying air taxis​

Wisk signs deal to deploy an air taxi trial in New Zealand – TechCrunch
Airbus' Pilotless Air Taxi Completes Flight Testing At Pendleton Airport​

 

[diplomat33]

Contrary to what you have said in the past, you can't go to chandler and get a driverless ride. People are rightfully more impressed with technology they can use.

I've never used a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket but I am quite impressed with the tech. You don't have to use a tech to be impressed by it.

 

[FreshPrince]

But according to Elon, an FSD Tesla is worth 100k+ plus the car value.

Good point, but I was just commenting about cost of Waymo's hardware. Tesla is much more frugal on hardware and software yet achieving great progress.

 

[Bladerskb]

No videos since early january and you really believe it readily available to public? How absurd. When you post your absurdities, please post a disclaimer that you live in the land of fantasy. When it is true, we will get people here commenting how cool it is, with video. Also I know people at Waymo, and they know they don't have a public driverless system available. And they have a goal announced yet again last year to launch such service this year.

I don't understand why its so hard for you to grasp.

There are two service:

• Waymo One - They are allowed to record and share videos.
• Waymo Early Riders - Because they get first dips on the latest features and test the most advanced stuff, they can't record and share videos, they also get rider-only trips.

I predicted that the latest build thats in the early rider would come to waymo one by june 2020. Obviously that's before covid19. I believe covid19 set them back 3 months. I fully believe driverless/rider-only will make it into Waymo One 3 months from June. So that's September.

Here's a Waymo One Rider bringing a friend who appears to be a tesla fan. This is his first ride.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't understand why its so hard for you to grasp.

There are two service:

• Waymo One - They are allowed to record and share videos.
• Waymo Early Riders - Because they get first dips on the latest features and test the most advanced stuff, they can't record and share videos, they also get rider-only trips.

I predicted that the latest build thats in the early rider would come to waymo one by june 2020. Obviously that's before covid19. I believe covid19 set them back 3 months. I fully believe driverless/rider-only will make it into Waymo One 3 months from June. So that's September.

Here's a Waymo One Rider bringing a friend who appears to be a tesla fan. This is his first ride.

Thanks for sharing. This is one of the best videos I've seen. Hugely impressive. Definitely shows how good Waymo's FSD is.

 

[Altes]

According to Waymo's own report to the California Public Utilities Commission, they transported 6,299 passengers in the first month alone. So did Waymo lie then to this Commission? Where all those passengers Waymo employees?

"Waymo transported 6,299 passengers in self-driving Chrysler Pacifica minivans in its first month participating in a robotaxi pilot program in California, according to a quarterly report the company filed with the California Public Utilities Commission.

In all, the company completed 4,678 passenger trips in July — plus another 12 trips for educational purposes. It’s a noteworthy figure for an inaugural effort that pencils out to an average of 156 trips every day that month. And it demonstrates that Waymo has the resources, staff and vehicles to operate a self-driving vehicle pilot while continuing to test its technology in multiple cities and ramp up its Waymo One ride-hailing service in Arizona."

Waymo’s robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California – TechCrunch

So yes, there are a lot of regular people riding in Waymo robotaxis. I don't agree with you that it is a lie.

I drive through mt view twice a day and everytime i see a waymo car they are blocking 5-10 cars by driving at 10mph below the speed limit. Furthermore they ALWAYS have drivers, Self driving does not mean driverless, there is always a driver behind the wheel. Nothing in the above quoted propoganda says they had no driver, just that they were operating autonomously with a "minder" at the wheel, ready to take over. might be different in phoenix but I cant imagine google taking on the liability of no driver given all the human idiot piloted cars out there.

It will be interesting to see if teslas video image based system can compare to 4 LIDAR units on the waymo vans

 

[Altes]

According to Waymo's own report to the California Public Utilities Commission, they transported 6,299 passengers in the first month alone. So did Waymo lie then to this Commission? Where all those passengers Waymo employees?

"Waymo transported 6,299 passengers in self-driving Chrysler Pacifica minivans in its first month participating in a robotaxi pilot program in California, according to a quarterly report the company filed with the California Public Utilities Commission.

In all, the company completed 4,678 passenger trips in July — plus another 12 trips for educational purposes. It’s a noteworthy figure for an inaugural effort that pencils out to an average of 156 trips every day that month. And it demonstrates that Waymo has the resources, staff and vehicles to operate a self-driving vehicle pilot while continuing to test its technology in multiple cities and ramp up its Waymo One ride-hailing service in Arizona."

Waymo’s robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California – TechCrunch

So yes, there are a lot of regular people riding in Waymo robotaxis. I don't agree with you that it is a lie.

I drive through mt view twice a day and everytime i see a waymo car they are blocking 5-10 cars by driving at 10mph below the speed limit. Furthermore they ALWAYS have drivers, Self driving does not mean driverless, there is always a driver behind the wheel. Nothing in the above quoted propoganda says they had no driver, just that they were operating autonomously with a "minder" at the wheel, ready to take over. might be different in phoenix but I cant imagine google taking on the liability of no driver given all the human idiot piloted cars out there.

It will be interesting to see if teslas video image based system can compare to 4 LIDAR units on the waymo vans

 

[diplomat33]

I drive through mt view twice a day and everytime i see a waymo car they are blocking 5-10 cars by driving at 10mph below the speed limit. Furthermore they ALWAYS have drivers, Self driving does not mean driverless, there is always a driver behind the wheel. Nothing in the above quoted propoganda says they had no driver, just that they were operating autonomously with a "minder" at the wheel, ready to take over. might be different in phoenix but I cant imagine google taking on the liability of no driver given all the human idiot piloted cars out there.

It will be interesting to see if teslas video image based system can compare to 4 LIDAR units on the waymo vans

Of course, Waymo still has safety drivers for some of their cars. But Waymo has removed the driver for some rides in AZ.

The point is that Waymo cars can drive themselves. With Waymo, the human driver is optional since they don't need to do anything. That's the big difference with Tesla. With Tesla, the driver is required since the car cannot drive itself without constant human monitoring and intervention (like hitting the stalk to confirm an action or disengaging to make a turn or to avoid construction).

 

[MXLRplus]

Which do you think will be available first:

1. Driverless autonomous robot taxis

2. Pilotless self-flying air taxis​

Wisk signs deal to deploy an air taxi trial in New Zealand – TechCrunch
Airbus' Pilotless Air Taxi Completes Flight Testing At Pendleton Airport​

Flight Management Systems have been in play for many years now. Aircraft is much easier. Fewer drunks, potholes, and road construction.

 

[Soda Popinski]

Tesla's FSD is a joke compared to that.

Are you comparing it to the Autonomy Day test drives? Otherwise, I don't think we can compare Autopilot, even with "FSD" features to actual Level 4 autonomy.

The point is that Waymo cars can drive themselves. With Waymo, the human driver is optional since they don't need to do anything. That's the big difference with Tesla. With Tesla, the driver is required since the car cannot drive itself without constant human monitoring and intervention (like hitting the stalk to confirm an action or disengaging to make a turn or to avoid construction).

Again, I don't think it's fair to compare AP with "FSD" features to actual Level 4 autonomy. I don't think anybody is arguing today's "FSD" is Level 4.

 

[Watts_Up]

GM Makes Hard Cuts at Cruise –– Whole Mars Catalog

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[murc585]

If you haven’t seen this, it shows a very interesting perspective on the state of FSD by someone who has created a viable FSD platform(Openpilot).

Not very enthusiastic about Waymo/Cruise...
Takeaway, they are a marketing ploy to keep investors invested and have no serious intention of making this a profitable technology. They have no clients...
It’s a technology that’s purely based on localization, and that is not a robust/adaptable solution. Humans are robust/adaptable, to replace them the solution needs to match that or be better.

Again, time will tell and I still believe Waymo/Cruise will have no real impact on the world/society(other than wasting investor money), it’s not their intention.
How can they be profitable if they need to achieve L5 before they make their first $1 of revenue? (Omar’s point, not mine)
Waymo/Cruise will soon be forgotten, similar to AOL/Yahoo/Blackberry... Deep learning with a large and varied dataset will win the game of replacing humans in driving, just as it has with board/video games.

 

[diplomat33]

If you haven’t seen this, it shows a very interesting perspective on the state of FSD by someone who has created a viable FSD platform(Openpilot).

You are joking right? Openpilot is not a viable FSD platform. It's a DIY AP1 that can do lane keeping, adaptive cruise control and some lane changes. I think it only uses a front facing camera. That is not a viable way to do FSD.

And by the way, his story with Elon does not make Elon look good IMO. So Elon actually offered this hack money to do Tesla's camera vision? And then tried to cheat him by trying to get him to do it with no contract or measure of what is deliverable?

Not very enthusiastic about Waymo/Cruise...
Takeaway, they are a marketing ploy to keep investors invested and have no serious intention of making this a profitable technology. They have no clients...
It’s a technology that’s purely based on localization, and that is not a robust/adaptable solution. Humans are robust/adaptable, to replace them the solution needs to match that or be better.

Localization is key. You can't do FSD without accurate localization because if your car does not know exactly where it is in relation to the road and other objects, how can it drive safely? So localization is the foundation for good FSD.

Waymo actually has the most robust system that is able to do perception far better than humans because it has sensors that provide highly accurate perception and has multiple back-ups and overlap. Waymo has solid camera vision to tackle things like traffic light and stop sign response. It has robust lidar for localization and object detection if the cameras fail. Waymo cars have multiple cameras, lidar and radar to guarantee that it will always get accurate perception even if a sensor is wrong or fails. Contrary to what Hotz says, Waymo cars don't get lost or stuck if the HD maps fail. It's a system designed to minimize cases where the robotaxi would need to pull over.

How can they be profitable if they need to achieve L5 before they make their first $1 of revenue? (Omar’s point, not mine)
Waymo/Cruise will soon be forgotten, similar to AOL/Yahoo/Blackberry... Deep learning with a large and varied dataset will win the game of replacing humans in driving, just as it has with board/video games.

What?! Waymo does not need to achieve L5 to be profitable. Omar is completely wrong.

Waymo can make a profit with their L4 approach. They have 2 robotaxi products (the Chrysler Pacifica and the Jaguar i-Pace) that can make a profit with an Uber like ride-hailing service. Waymo also has a FSD mini-van and a FSD semi truck that they can sell to companies who are interested in a way to transport their goods using FSD. Waymo can also make a profit licensing their FSD software or selling their FSD hardware. So they have plenty of options for making a profit before they achieve L5.

Also, Waymo does a lot of deep learning with very large data sets. Waymo actually leads in this area. And Waymo has the best FSD right now.

Now, this does not guarantee that Waymo will succeed in the marketplace of course. Companies can have a great product and still fail for other reasons. But to suggest that Waymo will soon be forgotten is wishful thinking on the part of many Tesla fans.

 

[diplomat33]

Just add to my last post, there are plenty of ways that L4 can be potentially profitable. I mentioned that Waymo has a FSD van and a FSD semi truck. You could use the van as an Amazon-like delivery vehicle to deliver packages from a warehouse to customers in a geofenced area. You could use the semi truck to delivery goods from one location to another that could be geofenced. For example, if you need a semi truck to take goods from a supply center to a manufacturing plant. All this could be done with L4 geofence. That would be just one way that L4 could be profitable. Waymo could sell their FSD vans and semi trucks to companies who want FSD to handle delivery and transportation. Amazon is actually looking to maybe buy Zoox. I would not be surprised if Amazon is looking to have autonomous delivery trucks at some point.

And of course, the ride-hailing is the other obvious way to make money with L4. Large cities with a lot of congestion can benefit from robotaxis. and since your service just needs to work in the city, it can be geofenced. In most big cities, owning a car, actually does not make sense. So a L4 geofenced robotaxi for ride-hailing in a city, makes perfect sense.

Selling autonomous cars to customers, who will presumably want L5 so they can go anywhere, is just one way to make FSD profitable. I think some Tesla fans need to think outside the box. The Tesla business model of selling FSD cars to the public is just one way, but it is not the only way to make money with FSD. L4 absolutely offers a viable path to profitability.

 

[Nilroc]

Waymo is territory restricted. The Lidar is a costly item $75,000 US dollars. Who is going to purchase those vehicles when they only work in mapped out driven areas. Tesla will win this race because of the data gained for edge cases. Waymo is only been driving around in one area. Tesla's are being driven everywhere in the world daily. Plus they don't pay to get the data as Waymo does. Waymo has had to raise more money to continue to pay everyone. Waymo raises $2.25 billion in first external round of funding - CNN

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo is territory restricted. The Lidar is a costly item $75,000 US dollars. Who is going to purchase those vehicles when they only work in mapped out driven areas. Tesla will win this race because of the data gained for edge cases. Waymo is only been driving around in one area. Tesla's are being driven everywhere in the world daily. Plus they don't pay to get the data as Waymo does. Waymo has had to raise more money to continue to pay everyone. Waymo raises $2.25 billion in first external round of funding - CNN

The lidar Waymo uses does not cost $75k anymore. They brought the cost down to only $7.5k.

Also, Waymo is testing in over 25+ cities in the US so they are not restricted to just one area. They also have millions of real autonomous miles and billions of simulation miles. So they have plenty of data to solve edge cases.

Also, that money that Waymo raised was for expansion not to pay salaries. It is no different than the capital campaign that Tesla did when they needed capital to expand.

 

[Nilroc]

Tesla has Billions of real miles. Waymo is not even close. You will see that Tesla will win the race. Wanna bet?
Why have Lidar when you don't need it anyway. Brings the cost of the vehicle up for no reason.
Besides Waymo is not true Self Driving if you're held to certain Geo Fenced Areas.
Tesla vehicles will be able to drive anywhere FSD