They are nowhere near the 200K delivered, won't hit it before 2018. No need to push back delivery.
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They are nowhere near the 200K delivered, won't hit it before 2018. No need to push back delivery.
I added up the cars delivered in the US a few months back using the data on insideevs. I think they were around 150K cars at that point. They have delivered less than 20K since then (US sales only).
They aren't close enough to the 200K to hold up sales right now. My money is on some minor production problem that isn't allowing cars to ship until a missing part is installed. There could be many reasons ranging from finding a problem with a part once production began to a backorder from a supplier, to many other things.
They aren't close enough to the 200K to hold up sales right now. My money is on some minor production problem that isn't allowing cars to ship until a missing part is installed. There could be many reasons ranging from finding a problem with a part once production began to a backorder from a supplier, to many other things.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
assuming I did the math right it is now 152,022 at end of November.
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,091 (25,202 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,210 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 Nov 152,022 (40,812 for partial 2017 + prior years)
I'm thinking about 11,000 for Dec 2017, leaving room for 36,000 and change during Q1 2018 to not trigger and push it out. That would still be 3x the sales Q1 2017 if they did that.
Or in short, sounds like you are right about that.
I was a little high in my estimate, but in the ballpark. Thanks for digging up the real numbers.
The InsideEVs numbers for Tesla sales are for North America, not US. So even the 152k number is slightly high (10k at most). At this point I see Tesla targeting the 200,001 US production unit as job number 1 on April 1st (aka 2018Q2).
S and X production for Q1 will most likely be highly loaded to international. Maybe even a week or two of Model 3 shutdown to integrate new configurations, standard range and white seats (fingers crossed).
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
ElecFan
Member
November 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card says "2017-US" so I suspect Tesla sales should also be US.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
No. InsideEVs adjusts, and makes the numbers US only
Top line comment
Note on 2017 numbers
Note on 2013 numbers
They may not have it to the car accurate but it is for US not North America.
Today's morning pics show some cars got moved/delivered and new ones took their place. A Tesla employee said that most customers pick up their cars on the weekends so the factory output rate is higher than the ship/customer pickup rate and cars are piling up on the lot.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
I think that windows continuing to slip as Tesla figures this all out is a given. This is a logistical nightmare and I'm not confident that they have the right people to figure it out. Their lack of a dealer network is going to be a thorn in their side on this particular logistical piece.
Here's another thought. How the hell are they going to deliver 5,000 cars a week out of 30-50 delivery centers? It's not going to happen.
At 50 centers that is 100 cars/week. That's not that unbelievable. But they are going to have a lot of problems getting these cars to market and stored (at first). Other companies have gotten that figured out. Warm up the trains and trucks.
I have been worried about the logistics since Day 1. I feel like Elon was for a while as well with all the stuff about being in and out in 5 minutes, but since "Production Hell" has taken over I worry now we are going into "Logistics Hell". They will work though it all even if there are bumps. By this time next year we will be laughing at how worried we were.
ElecFan
Member
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
They need to just send customers their key after payment and then customers go to the lot to get their car. A video of the car instructions can play on the main screen. None of the personalized Model S/X delivery with people should go with the Model 3. That's how they'd be able to scale up.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Other companies deliver through hundreds of dealerships not a handful.
Time will tell. I'm 100% sure Tesla is working on it because they have to identify it as a huge risk.
Interesting thought but there's no way I'm signing to accept delivery until I've inspected the car first. Tesla's QA is not exactly confidence-inspiring on that front.
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