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Seeking Alpha shorts would say they are all defective and awaiting repairs OR there is no one buying them, so Tesla is trying to hide their failure.
Optimistic people would say they are awaiting people to request that specific config before being shipped off OR they are for local deliveries and they just cannot get them out fast enough.
Not sure myself why they would be there.
Optimistic people would say they are awaiting people to request that specific config before being shipped off OR they are for local deliveries and they just cannot get them out fast enough.
Not sure myself why they would be there.
The production line will have parallel stations for jobs that take a long time to complete. If, for example, it takes 6 minutes to complete a paint job, there would need to be four paint stations in parallel to handle the production volume.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Probably a good sign that shipping logistics is roughly keeping pace with production. If the lot had filled up 1 day after line resuming, I'd be worried what will happen later in the week.
dc_h
Active Member
Or for local distribution. Hopefully mostly for Fremont delivery or any other San Francisco area delivery centers.
I just counted spaces and came up with the following:
Staging area for transport: 25 rows of 13 cars each = 325 cars
Parking spaces: 650 (plus or minus a few)
Total lot capacity = 975
Not long ago they also had cars staged in the aisles, probably bringing the total closer to 850 or 900 vehicles. Keep in mind that the staging lanes for transport are rarely completely full. Lanes often have fewer than 13 vehicles in them and some lanes are occupied by trucks.
At 5,000 vehicles per week, this lot would turn over completely once per day, assuming it was the only way cars were leaving the factory and production was 7 days per week. We know this to not be the case, since vehicles also leave the north side of the factory to go to the Richmond rail yard. Transport trucks have also been seen loading from the north side of the factory.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
These cars with low VINs in 12k-13k range could be cars that failed QA the 1st time they came off of production line, and got reworked. Going back ~2 weeks before this recent shutdown (~4/18-22), around Apr 3-4, the cars that were coming out then had VINs in 12k-13k range. So when we complain about them being "old", they're not really that "old". IMO it's a reasonable scenario that some of those cars from early April failed QA, and went back into production to get reworked, came out, passed QA, and get assigned, in ~2 weeks time. As production rate go up, the range of these "old" cars would increase accordingly. When we get to 5k/wk, we could see a VIN that is 10k lower.
Agree, if Tesla wants to keep ramping, have to keep these lot empty with matching logistic trucking it out.
I mean the lot was pretty full when Tesla was doing 2K/week. That's roughly 300s Model 3 a day, would be weird if they are not hitting that with the upgrade.
dc_h
Active Member
They could be in slow motion the first couple of days practicing new processes. If some tasks have changed, they might be slowest on Monday, slow on Tuesday and not get back to normal until Friday or longer. If they have reworked logistics to speed up pickups from the lot, we may not see if t filled up in the future.
Don't forget there is another logistics lot. This is the south logistics lot and there is a north one too.
Exactly. After any change in process or equipment, you don't just turn on the spigot and let everything run at full speed. There is a gradual build up to make sure, every station works as intended and the flow is fine tuned
In the long run all of this will be worth it.
Right, we will see how quickly they can push it. We should know more on 5/2 during the Earning Announcement.
A car doesn't have to pass through the entire paint booth from end to end in 90 seconds, one just has to come out every 90 seconds.
For example, it could take 15 minutes (900 seconds) for a car to complete the paint booth, as long as there can be 10 cars passing through the paint booth one after another (each approximately 1/10th further along in the process than the one after it) so that they exit in 90 second intervals.
Where do you get 42 an hour? If they get to 5000 cars per month working 16 hours a day 20 days a month, that's 15.6 cars per hour for two lines running in parallel. They are currently only around 2000 a month. 16 hours a day, 20 days per month is 320 hours of production time a month. At 2000 per month, each production line is rolling a car off the line about every 20 minutes. At 5000 production, the rate is 2 1/2 times that or about one car every 8 minutes. Because there are two lines, the time per car per line is twice that or one car per 16 minutes.
They are running two shifts a day, one is 10 hours (probably 9 with lunch break) and the other 9 hours. There is a 3 hour gap between the end of shift 1 and the start of shift 2, and I suspect a lot of shift 1 people work overtime during that time. Shceduled production time is 17 hours a day.
This details where the factory is today (as per late last year) and the expansion plans:
https://fremont.gov/TeslaMasterPlan
S/X is 2k/ wk on their line. Model 3 is on its own line. Rates are per week, not month, so 5k 3s per week on one line is one every 2 minutes if plant runs 24/7. At 17 hours per day 7 days a week: 3k/wk is 2.4 minutes per car.
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