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sreams
Member
From your pictures over the past several weeks, it does appear that only a trickle of Model 3s are moving through the system. However, a recent post from a soon-to-be owner mentioned getting a VIN near 6000. The VIN progression over the past couple weeks doesn't seem to line up with what your images suggest. I wonder if we aren't seeing the whole "picture", so to speak. Perhaps Model 3s are being moved out of Fremont in a way that these pictures don't capture.
Satellite images show that there are a lot of vehicles stored inside of the Freemont complex in addition to more vehicles at the port in Richmond. I think there is a lot of movement that is just out of sight unless you’re specifically looking for it.
It would be interesting for some retired folks to post up around the factory for a few days and count car carriers. Since the Fremont rail loading platform was recently bulldozed, the only way out is by truck unless Elon has bored some secret tunnels.
There is a big dirt pile and excavation going on behind the automated storage building...
But more likely, they have the car haulers contracted on a regular basis now.
Here is a satellite image of the north side of the Fremont factory. I’ve highlighted stored cars in green and car carriers (tractor trailers) in red. You can see that there is quite a lot of activity happening in this picture and there are no fewer than 9 car carriers on-site.
If anyone wants to count cars for real, the intersection below is the place to do it. It appears that all car carriers leave the factory through this gate.
If anyone wants to count cars for real, the intersection below is the place to do it. It appears that all car carriers leave the factory through this gate.
sreams
Member
How old is this satellite image? Looks like Google Maps on an iPad. I can tell you that the Google satellite image of my house is not super current. It looks to me like it is several weeks old from where one of my cars is parked.
Also... the Google satellite image of the south end of the factory is definitely old. The lot you see in several of the images in this thread isn't even paved yet in the satellite view.
EDIT: Oddly... viewing Google Maps in a browser on my PC shows a different satellite image from what you posted here. Hmmm.
EDIT2: My Android phone shows the same satellite view you posted... and the south lot is still not paved. Definitely an old photo.
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@sreams
EarthExplorer image is older, the storage building roof isn't finished.
This is from the December drone flyover.
sreams
Member
Yeah... I think it is a good idea to not rely on satellite imagery to get an idea of production in Fremont. It is almost always quite old.
Oh, there is probably a day 1 line waiter in Langley/ Fort Meade with good imagery
For today's training exercise, count the car carriers leaving 37.4937455,-121.9442616. Bonus points for legible VINs.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Car carriers enter and exit the Fremont property at the north end. The images above with the car carriers are also at the northern end of the property. The lot visible from the road that is the subject of many pictures here is at the south end of the property. The only car carrier tractor trailer action seen there was during the delivery crunch at the end of Q4.
It is my belief that most if not all of the Model 3's being shipped on car carriers are being loaded at the north lot. Some portion of the Model 3's on the south lot are being delivered from the Fremont Delivery Center about a mile away. There is a HD pickup with a 5th wheel trailer that transports 3 cars at a time that has been seen there. It is not clear if all of the cars stored at the south lot are being delivered from the FDC.
I don’t know how old the images around the Fremont factory are. When I was looking around yesterday, I noticed that the parking lots in the Port Richmond facility had been stitched together using a combination of new and old images. It would have gone unnoticed if the parking spaces hadn’t recently been redone to go from perpendicular to diagonal. It’s possible (although I don’t think it’s the case in this particular example) that the north side of the factory and the south side of the factory are different images. Still, the south lot is relatively new based on some of the temporary storm water management solutions in pictures earlier in this thread. The image is still fairly recent because it shows construction in what was a grassy area north of the factory.
Regardless of image age, the north side of the factory appears to be the main car shipping area for Tesla at the moment.
The 12/21/17 drone flyover shows the parking lot to be pretty similar to the satellite images I posted above. The satellite images are perhaps a few weeks earlier.
1/25/18 around 7am - new vantage point to avoid security, and taking some pictures as I drive by. The south end of the lot has some new MX/MS, the middle of the lot still empty.
RTPEV
Active Member
Perhaps but this lot basically shows that there are a bunch of M3's that are sitting and not getting delivered to customers. So either these cars have something wrong with them, waiting for parts, or the buyer dropped out and new buyers need to be found. If their production rate increases dramatically beyond their delivery/transport rate then we would see more and more cars piling up here.
I don't necessarily agree with that assessment. Your assessment is only true if it was the same cars that are held here over the multiple pictures. What you see in the picture is a static snapshot in time. What we don't know is the movement, if the throughput is constant, there will always some cars held in the lot before transport. Plus I would suspect that many of the cars for delivery in the fremont center are held here until the day before delivery.
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