They could say that if the customer doesn't get their financing/travel/etc. in order by a week then the car goes to the next in line with the same configuration. You can see that all the cars (about 20 of them) in aisles 24 and 25 haven't been delivered for a week.
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Sorry for being slightly OT, but wanted to confirm the production count from IEVs.
I followed up with Jay Cole on this. He did clarify that they have gone back and adjusted old numbers to separate US from North America sales.
So you are right. It is accurate within 100s of vehicles through November.
In the early days of Model S production NA was not broken out. I missed the correction point.
I still stand by my prediction of very early April for US production number. 200,001. It just might take a bit more creativity from Tesla to show full ramp of 3 and stay under the 200,000 bar in Q1.
EV credit phase out is tied to sales. So if Tesla starts reporting production numbers along with delivery, this investor would be happy
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In their quarterly reports, they report cars produced, cars delivered, and cars in transit. Most investors focus on the number of cars delivered.
The rail network is so heavily loaded, the railroad company would probably be happy if a train didn't move when it was scheduled to. I believe Tesla owns their own fleet of trucks which is how all the west coast US deliveries are done.
I believe the early production for NA wasn't broken out because 100% went to the US. Even when deliveries in Canada started, they were only selling them at a trickle rate, so the difference between overall and US sales was negligible.
In any case, Tesla might be able to hold back hitting the 200K dinger until April 1, 2018. A lot depends on how fast they can ramp up M3 production. Because of Tesla's sales model, they have more control when they hit the target. If they are getting close at the end of a quarter, they can slow deliveries a little so they don't go over until the next quarter. Other car makers don't have that flexibility. Most of their stock are already on lots around the US and when they sell is unpredictable.
GM is going to hit 200K right about the same time as Tesla, but they might end up hitting it a quarter earlier, even if it's only a few days on the calendar.
jstoneman
Member
Yes, that first row in the buffer zone didn't used to be a model x. Also, there were two white model threes in the #3 and #4 position on the drone videos shot last week by dark soldier. They seem to be going out! Now all of the seeking alpha naysayers (montanaSkeptic) can't claim that there's anything wrong with the cars! YAY! Another win for the Tesla Team!
Now they will claim they are shuffling the car around to disguise the defective cars!!
Now they will claim they are shuffling the car around to disguise the defective cars!!
That Musk guy is one sneaky dude.
ElecFan
Member
The buffer doesn't seem to diminish quickly. Production looks to have really ramped up structurally.
ElecFan
Member
Just a big thank you for doing this! It's helpful to know there is movement. I wonder if the lot can no longer be full simply because so many locations are configuring and delivering.
My old boss got his M3 last Saturday, VIN 3xxx - he swapped his reservation with his relative who had a Model S and wanted the dual motor version. You could see from the previous pictures that aisle 25 totally cleared out and two "new" M3s are there now.
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sweter
Member
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