Fremont Factory Should be Operating at Full Speed in late 2017.......

[californiaman]

Think about it for a second....Tesla's battery factory in Nevada is close to completion already....You would imagine that Tesla would be able to fully equip their production factory in Fremont by the end of 2017.

I believe Tesla will be deliver 30,000-50,000 model 3's in 2017.... 150,00- 200,000 model 3's in 2018

 

[FirstSea]

It does seem like Tesla's planning is paying off, but I'm still expecting actual deliveries to start in early 2018; I would be extremely thrilled to be shown otherwise.

 

[geoffreak]

I've seen some ambitious numbers, but yours takes the cake. Most current estimates for production are <100k Model 3's in 2018 and <200k in 2019.

Here's the estimated production capacity over the next few years for Tesla in graph form:

Source: Model 3: How Ambitious Are Tesla Motors Inc.'s Production Plans?

 

[StraightDave]

Looks like I'm in the 2019 delivery year. Unfortunately I can't wait that long. PM me if anybody is interested in my reservation and well work something out.

 

[melindav]

Looks like I'm in the 2019 delivery year. Unfortunately I can't wait that long. PM me if anybody is interested in my reservation and well work something out.

actually not so much.
From the Model 3 Reservation Terms & Conditions email:

"4. Acknowledgements; Non-Transferable.
You understand that we will not hold your Reservation Payments separately or in an escrow or trust fund or pay any interest on your Reservation Payment. Your Reservation is not transferable or assignable to another party without the prior written approval of Tesla"​

 

[SCW-Greg]

Think about it for a second....Tesla's battery factory in Nevada is close to completion already....You would imagine that Tesla would be able to fully equip their production factory in Fremont by the end of 2017.

I believe Tesla will be deliver 30,000-50,000 model 3's in 2017.... 150,00- 200,000 model 3's in 2018

The Giga factory is no where close to complete. I think at last check is only 14% complete. Have a long way to go. 800,000 sqft. now.

Reference is made a bit more than halfway down the page...
Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 Photo Shoot at the Gigafactory

 

[Xaff]

Looks like I'm in the 2019 delivery year. Unfortunately I can't wait that long. PM me if anybody is interested in my reservation and well work something out.

Not sure if serious.

I believe Tesla will rapidly increase production plans considering the current amount of Model 3's reserved is over 3x their original expected amount. After Part 2 and early deliveries start taking place, I would not be surprised if that number is closer to 1 million. This is something they HAVE to do in order to prevent a large number of people canceling their reservations due to wait times and to keep on track with future vehicles (i.e. Y and Roadster).

 

[Bounou]

Not sure if serious.

I believe Tesla will rapidly increase production plans considering the current amount of Model 3's reserved is over 3x their original expected amount. After Part 2 and early deliveries start taking place, I would not be surprised if that number is closer to 1 million. This is something they HAVE to do in order to prevent a large number of people canceling their reservations due to wait times and to keep on track with future vehicles (i.e. Y and Roadster).

I don't think they have a choice, I really think Tesla can't afford to make 500000+ of their customers angry because they have to wait 4+ years after they ordered a product to finally take delivery on it.

I really don't envy them, the ramp up to model 3 production would of been hard enough with 100k pre-orders...

 

[TaoJones]

Looks like I'm in the 2019 delivery year. Unfortunately I can't wait that long. PM me if anybody is interested in my reservation and well work something out.

actually not so much.
From the Model 3 Reservation Terms & Conditions email:

"4. Acknowledgements; Non-Transferable.
You understand that we will not hold your Reservation Payments separately or in an escrow or trust fund or pay any interest on your Reservation Payment. Your Reservation is not transferable or assignable to another party without the prior written approval of Tesla"​

It's not a big deal - just work out whatever with whomever you want to transfer the reservation to, and then approach Tesla for written approval. Their approving the transfer means that they'll update their records accordingly. In the event that they say no, you're no worse off than you were before.

Point being that Tesla doesn't want the reservations showing up on eBay getting sold for $5K each. Not that the thought had ever crossed my mind. But if you have a family member or in-law that wants yours, it's at least worth asking if they'll approve the change. Again, worst case is they say no, and you're no worse off than you were.

 

[Lunarx]

You can always let someone pay for your car and then they take posession of it after delivery.

 

[BBryson]

The Giga factory is no where close to complete. I think at last check is only 14% complete. Have a long way to go. 800,000 sqft. now.

Reference is made a bit more than halfway down the page...
Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 Photo Shoot at the Gigafactory

But the Gigafactory is being built is phases. The 14% referenced in the article is for the entire project. My understanding is battery production will start well before the entire building is 100% complete.

That being said, even if the phase one facility is ready, it will still take time to get the manufacturing infrastructure installed and operational.

Has Tesla posted any expected dates that battery manufacturing will begin?

 

[ElectricTundra]

It sounds as if they're already close to done with lines 3 & 4 that will be used for Model 3's. Given their X experience I'd guess they'll begin ramping up personnel on these lines and running tests through them much earlier than they did with the X. They may be able to ramp up quite quickly, especially given the level of automation.

 

[plankeye]

I just hope that they don't overly stress their employees, and a bunch of them quit.

The pressure has to be exponentially higher now with 400K reservations.

 

[SCW-Greg]

But the Gigafactory is being built is phases. The 14% referenced in the article is for the entire project. My understanding is battery production will start well before the entire building is 100% complete.

That being said, even if the phase one facility is ready, it will still take time to get the manufacturing infrastructure installed and operational.

Has Tesla posted any expected dates that battery manufacturing will begin?

"Close to complete" is not an accurate statement. But "operational" is.
Yes the building is being built out in stages as they test and grow through production phases. Battery production is already underway there. What projects and to what degree it's fully there (as opposed to Femont), I'm not sure any of us know.

 

[MostlyStock]

I believe Tesla will be deliver 30,000-50,000 model 3's in 2017.... 150,00- 200,000 model 3's in 2018

I think that is way too high. I would say 10,000 max with 5,000 being more likely for 2017.

It sounds as if they're already close to done with lines 3 & 4 that will be used for Model 3's.

Where did you see this? Everything I've seen says they are good for metal stamping and the paint shop but everything else (a new body line and final assembly) doesn't exist yet. The current Model S/X line (2,500+ units a week) could be upgraded to make the Model 3 also because of spare capacity (~900 units a week).

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I've seen some ambitious numbers, but yours takes the cake. Most current estimates for production are <100k Model 3's in 2018 and <200k in 2019.

Here's the estimated production capacity over the next few years for Tesla in graph form:

Source: Model 3: How Ambitious Are Tesla Motors Inc.'s Production Plans?

Interesting plot. For my own greedy reasons, I want them to make NO MORE model S/X and focus on M3. Do they have 60,000 sales in the bag for S/X like they do for M3?
Second - similar to production is delivery. EM said he might delay delivery of car 200,000 and increase inventory to maximize $7500 credit. This chart Seems to be on production and not on delivery. As this chart predicts, car 192,393 will be delivered in 2017. Can some of the 190,000 2019 M3 cars be shifted to 2018 delivery? - or delay all 2018 into 2019 [all for the tax credit, the most important thing on earth- snark obvious?]

 

[SCW-Greg]

Behind the scenes now at the Gigafactory...

Behind the Scenes: Panasonic and Tesla open up about the Gigafactory [Video]

 

[TaoJones]

I just hope that they don't overly stress their employees, and a bunch of them quit.

The pressure has to be exponentially higher now with 400K reservations.

Nah - think of it as job security .

All-nighters and ridiculous weeks and unpaid overtime by the bucketload have already been baked in since, oh, day 1. It's just part of working on the bleeding edge.

Although now as they continue to hire more and more people, it may look like folks are dropping like flies over time - but really I bet the *rate* remains the same. It's just that if you lose 3% of a workforce when it is 500 people, it makes less fodder for the press than when the workforce is 10,000 people.

 

[azred]

Think about it for a second....Tesla's battery factory in Nevada is close to completion already....You would imagine that Tesla would be able to fully equip their production factory in Fremont by the end of 2017.

I believe Tesla will be deliver 30,000-50,000 model 3's in 2017.... 150,00- 200,000 model 3's in 2018

I'll think about it for two seconds. The battery factory isn't even close to completion. Where did you get that idea?

 

[ElectricTundra]

The current Model S/X line (2,500+ units a week) could be upgraded to make the Model 3 also because of spare capacity (~900 units a week).

I'd not count on that. The line moves at the pace that it moves and with X's on it that pace is quite slow. Unless they've designed in some bypass capability for X operations that are exceptionally slow I don't see it.