Daniel in SD
(supervised)
We know Tesla doesn't rollout Autopilot changes to everyone all at once and I'm sure they also have internal regression testing. A L2 system can be unsafe if there are more collisions with it enabled than with it not enabled under identical conditions.Yes, but you can't use this process when you change the product constantly. The FDA doesn't allow you to completely reformulate your drug and then say all the data from V9 applies to V10, and then the V10 data gives you rationale to release the reformulated V10.1.
You only do that when what you have is stable. "FSD" is not going to be stable for years. The only thing they can really find out is if humans are a good backup to very unstable systems. I keep hearing the FSD beta has no accidents, so apparently it is? But we also have all that data from the L2 Highway code- and Tesla claims this is safer than a human alone. How can an L2 system be unsafe?
I mean, the next release is supposed to completely change the highway stack- the one that has been stable for years, and that we have actual statistics on. It's getting less stable, not more stable. This is the exact moment in time where you are furthest away from knowing how safe it will be in public, which you would think means we're not about to go wider if they are safety first, yet Elon is saying we're still close.
So again, why are they waiting? Could it be a non-safety issue, like they know people won't be impressed at what they get after 3 years of waiting for $10K? That the PR is actually better letting 10 people make videos and everyone just see those, rather than having people experience it themselves? Or that the system only works in narrow geofenced areas, and the NDA doesn't allow people to discuss that? I mean, not releasing it makes all these questions valid.
This is not a company that has taken stability and safety with AP seriously in the past. Tesla has $1B+ of customer money for this feature. It's L2 and safety is not an issue, we'll blame the driver in all cases. What's the holdup?
I don't think it could be a non-safety issue. This is a company that released Smart Summon, there's no way FSD Beta is even close to as embarrassing as that.
I wonder if it's a situation where there is a lot of internal conflict about whether to release it or not.
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