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FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)

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Yes, but you can't use this process when you change the product constantly. The FDA doesn't allow you to completely reformulate your drug and then say all the data from V9 applies to V10, and then the V10 data gives you rationale to release the reformulated V10.1.

You only do that when what you have is stable. "FSD" is not going to be stable for years. The only thing they can really find out is if humans are a good backup to very unstable systems. I keep hearing the FSD beta has no accidents, so apparently it is? But we also have all that data from the L2 Highway code- and Tesla claims this is safer than a human alone. How can an L2 system be unsafe?

I mean, the next release is supposed to completely change the highway stack- the one that has been stable for years, and that we have actual statistics on. It's getting less stable, not more stable. This is the exact moment in time where you are furthest away from knowing how safe it will be in public, which you would think means we're not about to go wider if they are safety first, yet Elon is saying we're still close.

So again, why are they waiting? Could it be a non-safety issue, like they know people won't be impressed at what they get after 3 years of waiting for $10K? That the PR is actually better letting 10 people make videos and everyone just see those, rather than having people experience it themselves? Or that the system only works in narrow geofenced areas, and the NDA doesn't allow people to discuss that? I mean, not releasing it makes all these questions valid.

This is not a company that has taken stability and safety with AP seriously in the past. Tesla has $1B+ of customer money for this feature. It's L2 and safety is not an issue, we'll blame the driver in all cases. What's the holdup?
We know Tesla doesn't rollout Autopilot changes to everyone all at once and I'm sure they also have internal regression testing. A L2 system can be unsafe if there are more collisions with it enabled than with it not enabled under identical conditions.
I don't think it could be a non-safety issue. This is a company that released Smart Summon, there's no way FSD Beta is even close to as embarrassing as that.
I wonder if it's a situation where there is a lot of internal conflict about whether to release it or not.
 
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If Tesla spent a single week fine-tuning the lane semantics / parking lots specifically for the routes that Waymo takes in Chandler, I think V10 would be comparable to Waymo's disengagement rate (which is around 1 in 500 miles in JJRick's videos). This is how much of a joke Waymo is becoming. In the coming months, it'll become clearer and clearer as we look back at JJRick's Waymo videos.

That number is made up. Not a single one of JJRick's driverless video contains a safety disengagement. Getting stuck in a parking lot is NOT a safety disengagement, neither is stopping on the road. I don't know how many times this has to be explained to you.

Find me a driverless video of waymo driving off a cliff.
Find me a video of a driverless waymo running into cars, walls, objects, climbing curbs, poles, bollards, columns, barriers, construction/road closure signs, driving on the opposite lane, driving into merging traffic, etc.
That is a safety disengagement. Getting stuck is NOT. Unless you have a reliable and safe L5 car, there will always be a situation where the car gets stuck.

But guess what, i can find you a dozen videos from FSD Beta 10 alone of the car trying to do all of the above.

@ZeApelido how can you like this post and yet claim to be objective?
 
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Elon has been confident about a lot of things that are not true. He was confident HW2 would be good enough too. FSD was "definitely" only 6 months away in 2017. He's surprised "the button" is later than June. He talked about radar as important until he didn't. Why would we take his "confidence" as any worthwhile data point?

When Elon quotes safety targets, he usually quotes 1:1B miles (via "nines"), which is >10X as safe as a human overall, although only about 3X as safe on the highway.

So because Elon's estimates were off in the past means he's going to be forever wrong?

I said it before, but some of the environments we're seeing V10 handle right now has yet been demonstrated by any other fsd developer. Show us interior the videos (which I still can't trust because the other developers can have remote links to the car to change pathing or prompt to proceed).
 
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So because Elon's estimates were off in the past means he's going to be forever wrong?
This is literally how humans relate to one another. Past behavior informs our estimate of their capabilities.
I mean, I've never been able to set a world record in the 100M sprint. Does that mean I never will?
I've never successfully done heart surgery, does that mean I never will?
Elon's never successfully estimated a FSD timeline, does that mean he never will?

Just like you won't let me do heart surgery on you until I prove I can do it at least a few times with no failures, I don't trust Elon's timeframes or "confidence in what HW is needed" until he proves it a few times with no failures. And I don't mean telling me V10 will come out in 4 days as if that is some amazing foresight after 11 months of claiming it was just two weeks away.

I mean, he literally told us he'd be "surprised" if the button didn't hit in June. It's September. He told us he used his expertise to estimate something, and he was massively wrong. Why should we trust him at all with any timeline or technical specifics?
 
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During AI Day, I remember Elon saying he's confident hw3 will get to 2-3x human safety. To me, that's not enough to enable L4+.

When has he "promised" anything about FSD lately lol?

Pick a lane. You say Elon saying something is good enough for you, then you immediately pivot to being pedantic about him "promising" things as if people listening to his tweets are just idiots for believing anything he says as a way to defend him.
 
So because Elon's estimates were off in the past means he's going to be forever wrong?

I said it before, but some of the environments we're seeing V10 handle right now has yet been demonstrated by any other fsd developer. Show us interior the videos (which I still can't trust because the other developers can have remote links to the car to change pathing or prompt to proceed).
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This is literally how humans relate to one another. Past behavior informs our estimate of their capabilities.
I mean, I've never been able to set a world record in the 100M sprint. Does that mean I never will?
I've never successfully done heart surgery, does that mean I never will?
Elon's never successfully estimated a FSD timeline, does that mean he never will?

Just like you won't let me do heart surgery on you until I prove I can do it at least a few times with no failures, I don't trust Elon's timeframes or "confidence in what HW is needed" until he proves it a few times with no failures.

In the same vein, Elon's failed fsd timelines mean nothing for the majority of Tesla owners or fsd buyers, so since we're in a democracy, the majority rules, and the complainers can join the fsd ride, which Tesla is well ahead in.
 
This is literally how humans relate to one another. Past behavior informs our estimate of their capabilities.
I mean, I've never been able to set a world record in the 100M sprint. Does that mean I never will?
I've never successfully done heart surgery, does that mean I never will?
Elon's never successfully estimated a FSD timeline, does that mean he never will?

Just like you won't let me do heart surgery on you until I prove I can do it at least a few times with no failures, I don't trust Elon's timeframes or "confidence in what HW is needed" until he proves it a few times with no failures.
You're giving examples of known things. You have to admit that Tesla, created by Elon, is pioneering on something often attempted and never accomplished before. Unlike 100m sprints and heart surgeries.

Yes, he's often off. By a lot. Credit where it's due, he's been catching up to some features on his backlog.
Also important to say, people label things as "Elon's Promises" when he agrees that something is a good idea or when he speaks in estimates.

I personally mentioned on another post that I don't believe Elon when he doesn't use a specific date.
"FSD beta 10 will be released in 2 Fridays". Nailed it
"Public access to FSD Beta 10.1 will probably follow 2-4 weeks after that". I doubt it.

And to wrap it all up, I have 2 words:

Weather Forecast
 
Elon's failed fsd timelines mean nothing for the majority of Tesla owners or fsd buyers
What? The majority of FSD owners don't care AT ALL that they have no functionality yet?
Have you seen the Reddit threads lately? Gonna need a source that most people could care less that their $10K for almost nothing is just no big deal, even though the Tesla website itself promised CSA "this year" in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
 
What? The majority of FSD owners don't care AT ALL that they have no functionality yet?
Have you seen the Reddit threads lately? Gonna need a source that most people could care less that their $10K for almost nothing is just no big deal, even though the Tesla website itself promised CSA "this year" in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
I can only speak for myself but having invested $8K in FSD capability to be paid over the course of the car's finance terms is no big deal for me. I'm happy with the features I have today and I'm happy to be part of the journey.
 
I personally mentioned on another post that I don't believe Elon when he doesn't use a specific date.
In other words, you can only trust Elon on something that is already in motion, because the only time he gives a specific date is when it's within a week.

The whole discussion here is why we trust Elon that HW3 is good enough to be 3X as safe as humans. What historically proven expertise do we have to see that he's good at judging that?

He might be good at judging that L3+ will eventually happen. But on the HW we all have on our cars right now? You really trust him on that?
 
It's so funny that Waymo and Cruise literally have thousands of hours of "autonomous" driving video in SF, yet they don't show us much of it, hahaha!

Here's one of two Waymo SF videos for your enjoyment:


Edit: sorry, Cruise has more a lot more SF video than Waymo.
 
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In other words, you can only trust Elon on something that is already in motion, because the only time he gives a specific date is when it's within a week.

The whole discussion here is why we trust Elon that HW3 is good enough to be 3X as safe as humans. What historically proven expertise do we have to see that he's good at judging that?

He might be good at judging that L3+ will eventually happen. But on the HW we all have on our cars right now? You really trust him on that?
It's my own personal take. I'm offering you my perspective and it's up to you to digest it. I'm not going to tell you what to think. I merely believe I recognized a pattern from his communication.

Jim Keller. He is the brain behind the FSD computer. And he has a very successful legacy of projects. And I do believe Elon and Andrej are smarter than you or I, too, so yes, for now, I will take their word on this.
 
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So you're 100% sure that if Tesla said "no more HW3 development" right now, and no HW upgrades, what you have today is all you get, you'll be totally fine?
Cars have a life expectancy and I don't think a Tesla is alien tech. I think it will last longer than most, but it will at some point be replaced. It's just reality.

With that being said, this car is different because it's very modular. HW (FSD/MCU) upgrades are proven to exist so I will not entertain that part of your question. I'd possibly pay for an upgrade (Plaid MCU, looking at you), and I think Tesla owes me a FSD 4 computer if they deliver FSD only with it. And I'd fight for that.

If FSD is never delivered then I'm fine with what I experienced with HW3.