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FSD beta waiting game

You can say more sensor is more sophisticated, and you might even be right. But that isn’t how I think about it. The more it resembles AGI, the more sophisticated it is to me. I see Tesla edging towards AGI here.
There’s no reason an AGI couldn’t use other sensors. Also I haven’t seen any evidence that Tesla has more sophisticated AI than other players in the market.
Tesla is not edging towards AGI. Tesla is not doing AGI.
I’m withholding judgement until I see Optimus later this week.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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My claim was "no one has figured out this tech" and my claim is right if you want to solve the problem like Tesla wants to solve it.

Sure but that is not what you said. But yes, nobody is trying to solve autonomy the way Tesla is so with that caveat you are correct. But there are many companies who are solving generalized FSD. Waymo uses AI and is solving generalized FSD, they just use different sensors than Tesla. So saying that nobody know how "the tech" works was wrong, without that caveat.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
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I’m withholding judgement until I see Optimus later this week.

Yes, if Tesla can achieve general AI on Optimus, I might agree. But to be clear, the reason I say Tesla is not doing AGI with FSD is because FSD is a very specific application of AI. AGI generally refers to the ability of the AI to handle a wide range of different problems.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
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You can say more sensor is more sophisticated, and you might even be right.

I am not saying Waymo is more sophisticated because it uses more sensors. I am saying Waymo is more sophisticated because it has better AI than Tesla. Waymo uses deep neural nets that are more sophisticated than Tesla's FSD.
 

Yelobird

Active Member
Aug 24, 2020
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I am not saying Waymo is more sophisticated because it uses more sensors. I am saying Waymo is more sophisticated because it has better AI than Tesla. Waymo uses deep neural nets that are more sophisticated than Tesla's FSD.
Never really understand these comparisons personally. Yes Waymo is doing some impressive things and likely the military has some crazy tech also but in the consumer category why does this matter? Not saying it’s easy but programming a car like a train or a slot car is a bit less challenging in my view by comparison in a controlled GPS environment. I’m in when I can buy a Waymo to drive around any city or destination but for now it’s just a transporter like a city trolley. Again their effort is impressive but in the consumer category somewhat useless for a family vacation.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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Terre Haute, IN USA
Never really understand these comparisons personally. Yes Waymo is doing some impressive things and likely the military has some crazy tech also but in the consumer category why does this matter? Not saying it’s easy but programming a car like a train or a slot car is a bit less challenging in my view by comparison in a controlled GPS environment. I’m in when I can buy a Waymo to drive around any city or destination but for now it’s just a transporter like a city trolley. Again their effort is impressive but in the consumer category somewhat useless for a family vacation.

Waymo is not programmed like a train or a slot car. That is a myth. The Waymo Driver is capable of driving itself anywhere. It is only geofenced (for now) for the ride-hailing service. The geofence is a temporary restriction, it is not a limit of the tech. The tech can drive anywhere. It is real FSD. it has general perception to see the environment and general AI to decide how to drive. It is not on rails.

I hear your point about consumer cars. Yes, consumers care about being able to buy the self-driving car. But that is a different question. That is like saying that apple is not an apple because I can't buy it. No. It is still an apple even if I can't buy it. Now, it may not matter if I can't buy it, but it is still an apple. Likewise, Waymo is real FSD even if I can't buy it (yet). You may not care about Waymo since you can't buy one, but it is still real FSD.
 
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Waymo is not programmed like a train or a slot car. That is a myth. The Waymo Driver is capable of driving itself anywhere. It is only geofenced (for now) for the ride-hailing service. The geofence is a temporary restriction, it is not a limit of the tech. The tech can drive anywhere. It is real FSD. it has general perception to see the environment and general AI to decide how to drive. It is not on rails.

I hear your point about consumer cars. Yes, consumers care about being able to buy the self-driving car. But that is a different question. That is like saying that apple is not an apple because I can't buy it. No. It is still an apple even if I can't buy it. Now, it may not matter if I can't buy it, but it is still an apple. Likewise, Waymo is real FSD even if I can't buy it (yet). You may not care about Waymo since you can't buy one, but it is still real FSD.
Have they tried running their tech in other cities with zero training in those cities? Cite?

If so then I relent I was wrong about Tesla’s solution being more sophisticated. I just haven’t seen any evidence of Wayno being generalized to all US cities. Seems hard to prove until they try it like Tesla is, no?
 
Have they tried running their tech in other cities with zero training in those cities? Cite?

If so then I relent I was wrong about Tesla’s solution being more sophisticated. I just haven’t seen any evidence of Wayno being generalized to all US cities. Seems hard to prove until they try it like Tesla is, no?
Let me phrase it differently: can Waymo read and correctly interpret and correctly react to all road signage in the US like humans can? My impression is that is the tech we need to actually solve FSD, and why it takes near-human levels of AI.

Edit: put a third way, my impression was that it’s geofenced because they had to tell the car brain what the hell all that crazy human signage meant. Is that wrong?
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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Terre Haute, IN USA
Have they tried running their tech in other cities with zero training in those cities? Cite?

If so then I relent I was wrong about Tesla’s solution being more sophisticated. I just haven’t seen any evidence of Wayno being generalized to all US cities. Seems hard to prove until they try it like Tesla is, no?

According to the safety report, Waymo has tested their AVs in 25+ cities in the US.

EmTz6r4.png


Let me phrase it differently: can Waymo read and correctly interpret and correctly react to all road signage in the US like humans can?

Yes, it can. Waymo has trained their camera vision to read all signs.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
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Can it read and interpret non standard road signs

To do L4, it would have to. And I see no reason it couldn't. Waymo has sophisticated vision that can read addresses on the side of buildings, road signs, street names etc... It would be a matter of training the vision to understand the special signs.
 
Breaking news - the race to L5 is over, and VW has won! New fully self-driving Volkswagen allows you to work, eat and SLEEP

"Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicle has level 5 autonomy, meaning it can travel through bad weather and isn’t limited to specific geographical locations, according to the manufacturer."

!!!!

"The all-electric GEN.TRAVEL car operates at the highest self-driving level and acts as an alternative to short-haul flights."

!!!!

And with L5 driving now solved, VW has already turned their attention to designing the interior of this driverless vehicle:

"GEN.TRAVEL’s interior is customizable for each journey, offering configurations for working, eating, and sleeping."
"Illuminating GEN.TRAVEL’S work environment is dynamic lighting that helps passengers avoid motion sickness."
"GEN.TRAVEL riders looking to catch some rest can convert the four chairs into two flat-lying beds."
"The dynamic lighting within this Volkswagen also induces passenger melatonin release to promote better rest."

Amazing! Selling my Model 3 now. Where can I buy a GEN.TRAVEL?!?

"GEN.TRAVEL is not intended to be a production vehicle - but a study that may transfer its features to future cars."
"With GEN.TRAVEL, we can already experience today what will be possible in the near future with innovative technology."

Now THAT is how it's done, Elon - you paying attention?
 

nvx1977

Unknown Member
Nov 25, 2017
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NH, MA
Now THAT is how it's done, Elon - you paying attention?

what do you mean? Elon talked about FSD in this way in 2016. Way ahead of VW :D

wonder if they will release videos on how it performs in cities. Their press release is pretty absent of anything interesting. some animations and images, none of which showcase the L5 aspect. That they spent most of the press release focused on cabin configuration makes me suspicious that they don't have anything of substance on the autonomy front.

It's like what they're really saying is this: "if L5 becomes a reality, here's how we could design the interior of the car."

 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
10,738
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Terre Haute, IN USA
It's like what they're really saying is this: "if L5 becomes a reality, here's how we could design the interior of the car."

That's exactly what they are saying. The vehicle is a concept car to demonstrate how L5 might change the design of a car. For example, a car that does not need a human driver might repurpose the inside to be more like a living room where passengers can face each other instead of facing the front of the car. The GEN.TRAVEL is not intended to ever be a real production vehicle.
 
That's exactly what they are saying. The vehicle is a concept car to demonstrate how L5 might change the design of a car. For example, a car that does not need a human driver might repurpose the inside to be more like a living room where passengers can face each other instead of facing the front of the car. The GEN.TRAVEL is not intended to ever be a real production vehicle.
Yes, and this strikes me as incredibly intellectually lazy. VW is jumping to the 'fun' part of designing the interior of a driverless car, without dealing with the actual HARD problem of building full autonomy. It's like a kid who can't focus on the difficult math test so they just start doodling in the margins.
 

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