FSD increasing by $1K 11/1/19

[Uncle Paul]

Biggest bonus of buying a Tesla is that the company includes all the autopilot hardware standard.

This gives owners the opportunity to add the software at a later date, when it becomes "worth it" to them.

Hard to see owners complaining about Tesla offering a software package at a later date. All other cars would be incapable of installing FSD hardware after purchase at a reasonable price.

 

[cucubits]

So that's why to skip it on your first or second generation car. Why buy before it starts working?

Because Elon is great car salesman.

 

[Hank42]

A ‘1’? What kind of scale is this? LOL

??? I’m unclear what you’re talking about here? “2.5 hardware FSD” is EAP, and if you bought FSD (rather than just EAP) you’re moving to 3.0 hardware. The 3.5 part seems out of left field? You seem really confused and/or throwing up nonsense FUD statements about how it’s all, well hard to make heads or tales of exactly what other than you’re really confused.

Ok, I can see the confusion of taking my example too literally. No FUD intended. The point being is this: When will it end? i.e. We were promised FSD with 2.5 Hardware, but now "oh, wait, 2.5 is EAP, you really need 3.0 hardware for FSD". When when we all upgrade (or buy new with prepaying for FSD) 3.0 Hardware, who's to say the story won't change yet again and we'll need HW 3.5 to get FSD(FOR EXAMPLE, not LITERALLY!)?

 

[tvad]

Hard to see owners complaining about Tesla offering a software package at a later date.

I don't think offering a software upgrade at a later date is the primary complaint.

 

[SammichLover]

Ok, I can see the confusion of taking my example too literally

So I should take it as a vapid rant? Well I've got good news for you there.....

The point being is this: When will it end?

Given that Tesla still sends out improvements to 7 year old Model S's, perhaps I'll stop having a better car than the month prior is about a decade? Since I should have around 400K-500K miles on the car by then I find that fairly acceptable.

We were promised FSD with 2.5 Hardware, but now "oh, wait, 2.5 is EAP, you really need 3.0 hardware for FSD".

My distinct recollection is Musk promised they'd upgrade my car if it was required (by the time I purchase they were saying firmly that they would require it). Given Tesla has already started on MCU hardware upgrades, how about we can talk when there is even a remote indication that they follow through on that?

When when we all upgrade (or buy new with prepaying for FSD) 3.0 Hardware, who's to say the story won't change yet again and we'll need HW 3.5 to get FSD(FOR EXAMPLE, not LITERALLY!)?

If they follow through on Musk's promise to cover any hardware update that's required, that's their problem. Not our concern. Seriously, what does it really matter to you if they spend hardware money twice to get there?

 

[jedi2b]

as much as I dislike the idea of vaporware, and I think it's even detrimental to the brand name (and stock) I would most probably buy today the FSD option if it were transferable to new Tesla in the future.

On the Tesla side, not only they would receive 6k$ from me today, but they will also keep me semi-captive for future car buys. I would need a VERY strong motivation to switch brands in the future and loose the 6k$ i spent on the FSD license.

 

[mreynolds767]

as much as I dislike the idea of vaporware, and I think it's even detrimental to the brand name (and stock) I would most probably buy today the FSD option if it were transferable to new Tesla in the future.

On the Tesla side, not only they would receive 6k$ from me today, but they will also keep me semi-captive for future car buys. I would need a VERY strong motivation to switch brands in the future and loose the 6k$ i spent on the FSD license.

I fully agree, my 3 has a shelf life and so the more time passes the less likely will I want to put a $5 - $10K premium feature into it.
Not to mention I think resale will not recoup much of the added cost and a little unclear how insurance handles this after purchase add-on's if it came down to the car being lost that way but imagine that is bad for me as well.
But they could sell me it and gain my brand loyalty at the same time, sounds like a win-win.

The counter to that is all of the people who already paid for FSD in their car would either need to get the same perk for free of it staying with the owner (Telsa costing themselves possible future revenue) or be very pissed off.

 

[SammichLover]

as much as I dislike the idea of vaporware, and I think it's even detrimental to the brand name (and stock) I would most probably buy today the FSD option if it were transferable to new Tesla in the future.

On the Tesla side, not only they would receive 6k$ from me today, but they will also keep me semi-captive for future car buys. I would need a VERY strong motivation to switch brands in the future and loose the 6k$ i spent on the FSD license.

That might work with a modest transfer fee? But I think you'd also be pulling value out of your old vehicle assuming you didn't write it off or it was otherwise no longer going to be operable.

 

[jedi2b]

That might work with a modest transfer fee? But I think you'd also be pulling value out of your old vehicle assuming you didn't write it off or it was otherwise no longer going to be operable.

well, the thing is that Tesla is not really so much a car company company as a software and car company.

as software becomes more and more important in terms of purchase decision factor, the cars are going to be seen more and more as tablets on wheels.

Microsoft has been doing the transferable license dance for a while now.

on the opposite end, why buy a license for a work in progress software without a hard commited delivery date? our tablet on wheels may very well loose it's wheels of old age before we get what we paid for.

a trasnferable license is a win win for everybody, I think

 

[cucubits]

a trasnferable license is a win win for everybody, I think

I don't think so. They're probably smarter about this and know that people will gladly pay again for FSD in the next generation cars when they get it working. Instead of paying just once and keep transferring it, you'll pay for it (more and more) for every upcoming car. Not cool but it's a business and makes more sense to squeeze as much profit as they can...

 

[jedi2b]

I don't think so. They're probably smarter about this and know that people will gladly pay again for FSD in the next generation cars when they get it working. Instead of paying just once and keep transferring it, you'll pay for it (more and more) for every upcoming car. Not cool but it's a business and makes more sense to squeeze as much profit as they can...

let's be realistic, in 5 years, when I go out to buy a new car, there will be other Tesla alternatives, either new companies or giant automotive companies that would finally wake up.

when that happens, wouldn't it be nice for Tesla to know that I have a transferable license worth 6k$ or much more at that time, as an incentive to stay with the brand?

Tesla won't have a monopoly on smart, cool, efficient electric cars forever, now would be the time make sure my next car is a Tesla model Y and not a VW, or something else.

In the other hand, imagine VW honoring the FSD Tesla license in one of THEIR cars, for free, to incentivate me to switch brands...

Tesla is a young and relatively small company. Getting too greedy right now might not be very wise.

 

[cucubits]

That's a fair point... in that case they may be a bit more greedy than smart for now. They'll either change a lot about how they do things or will fall behind... This selling air for $6-7k will not last long.

 

[SammichLover]

well, the thing is that Tesla is not really so much a car company company as a software and car company.

as software becomes more and more important in terms of purchase decision factor, the cars are going to be seen more and more as tablets on wheels.

Microsoft has been doing the transferable license dance for a while now.

on the opposite end, why buy a license for a work in progress software without a hard commited delivery date? our tablet on wheels may very well loose it's wheels of old age before we get what we paid for.

a trasnferable license is a win win for everybody, I think

“They are a software company so they should dead-end their software revenue to push more hardware sales.”????

 

[jedi2b]

“They are a software company so they should dead-end their software revenue to push more hardware sales.”????

They wouldn't dead-end their software revenue.
First, they are charging money in any case for AP with all purchases of M3-SR+ and better.

And it seems logical to me that they will start charging a subscription based service for OTA's, for anything else than bug fixes, possibly as soon as next year, if they do declare the product "feature complete" this year, as Musk said.
And if that happens, it sounds plaussible they will charge more for FSD subscriptions than AP subscriptions.

Hence it would be a very good idea to make sure people get onboard with FSD right now, so they pay for their subscription later.

Again, Microsoft knows a thing or two about software business. They have been playing these games for a long time now.

In the other hand, the 6k$ they receive today can't even be declared as revenue on their balance sheet...

 

[RSL2020]

I think Ill wait to get FSD on my 2nd Model 3 in a five years or so.

 

[jedi2b]

I think Ill wait to get FSD on my 2nd Model 3 in a five years or so.

That's also my point of view, so far.

 

[Nocturnal]

let's be realistic, in 5 years, when I go out to buy a new car, there will be other Tesla alternatives, either new companies or giant automotive companies that would finally wake up.

when that happens, wouldn't it be nice for Tesla to know that I have a transferable license worth 6k$ or much more at that time, as an incentive to stay with the brand?

Tesla won't have a monopoly on smart, cool, efficient electric cars forever, now would be the time make sure my next car is a Tesla model Y and not a VW, or something else.

In the other hand, imagine VW honoring the FSD Tesla license in Zero one of THEIR cars, for free, to incentivate me to switch brands...

Tesla is a young and relatively small company. Getting too greedy right now might not be very wise.

Zero chance VW offers a free 6k+ software package for free down the road, and if they did, then that's when Tesla would let those of us who bought it transfer.

 

[jedi2b]

Zero chance VW offers a free 6k+ software package for free down the road, and if they did, then that's when Tesla would let those of us who bought it transfer.

All major manufacturers will be playing catch up for the next 5 years.
As soon as Tesla does it, the competition only needs to copy and/or steal it and try to capture the market
I think we should expect them to do some pretty crazy things, marketing-wize, and many of them have deep enough pockets to do it.

 

[Nocturnal]

All major manufacturers will be playing catch up for the next 5 years.
As soon as Tesla does it, the competition only needs to copy and/or steal it and try to capture the market
I think we should expect them to do some pretty crazy things, marketing-wize, and many of them have deep enough pockets to do it.

If they can catch up, which isn't guaranteed.

 

[Quorky]

They will eventually charge a monthly fee for this service once it is mainstream ready. 100 bucks a month, which would equate to 6k over the 5yr period. Worth it for ppl that pick up new car frequently but not as much for ppl who keep their cars longer. I would def pay a monthly and not worry about the FSD traveling with me into the new car. I need it great, pay the monthly, I don't need it in the new car, then don't turn it on. Easy peasy and I am sure the price point can be experimented at which the revenue stream is stable and lucrative enough for both parties.