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FSD is Now $7,000

I know there was some skepticism on the change happening. Just checked, FSD is now $7,000 for new cars and as an upgrade from Autopilot.
01C03D3C-0BA8-4C82-9C21-3FBFC3F12328.jpeg
 
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ratsbew

Active Member
Mar 3, 2012
1,293
1,043
O'Fallon, IL
They must have the most advanced version running on their test cars and likely able to do all the things listed - just waiting for approvals and evaluation on Level 3/4 designation.

100% agree. Tesla definitely has stop signs and stop lights with intersection navigation already working to some level on internal engineering builds. I'm sure it has bugs and will require intervention, but the point is that they are way farther along than what we see in public releases. I wouldn't be surprised if FSD is $10,000 by next June.

Part of me is tempted to buy a SR+ with FSD for my wife to drive until the Tesla Network comes to life.

Edit: to be clear, Tesla has DEMONSTRATED FSD at the autonomy investors day back in April. So we know that they are at least that far. It's been 6 months since them for them to refine the system.
 
If/when it works so that robotaxis are real, it would be cool for just plain owners to not have to pay such a cost and only robotaxi fleet members. More cars to keep the system learning, "safer" cars (Tesla says) for every day folk and those wanting to get their car to pay back it's costs, they let them be robots..
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
9,290
13,234
Terre Haute, IN USA
7k for what is essentially vaporware?

NOA, Smart Summon, Auto Park and Auto Lane Change are not vaporware. Those features are out now. The only features in the FSD package that we are waiting on now are traffic light response and automatic city driving.
 

ratsbew

Active Member
Mar 3, 2012
1,293
1,043
O'Fallon, IL
I'm worried about stop lights and stop signs. If a Tesla on FSD runs a red light once every million intersections....then that is multiple red lights per day across the fleet. It needs to be so reliable that a Telsa runs a red on FSD less than once per year across the whole fleet. Even that will look horrible on the news even if it is 10x safer than human drivers.
 

WilliamG

Hinge Fanatic
Apr 20, 2019
5,752
9,262
Seattle, WA
I'm worried about stop lights and stop signs. If a Tesla on FSD runs a red light once every million intersections....then that is multiple red lights per day across the fleet. It needs to be so reliable that a Telsa runs a red on FSD less than once per year across the whole fleet. Even that will look horrible on the news even if it is 10x safer than human drivers.

Not only that, I’m interested to see how it handles a tall vehicle right in front of it, blocking the traffic light completely as said vehicle moves through on a yellow or just-turned red.
 

ratsbew

Active Member
Mar 3, 2012
1,293
1,043
O'Fallon, IL
Not only that, I’m interested to see how it handles a tall vehicle right in front of it, blocking the traffic light completely as said vehicle moves through on a yellow or just-turned red.

Yes. "Corner cases" like this are quite common. A human driver can use other cues to know the color of an obscured light. A safe following distance of 7 will help give the car time. One benefit is that the forward cameras are almost 12" higher than your eyes which gives them an extra few meters of being able to see the light than a driver.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
9,290
13,234
Terre Haute, IN USA
I remember Elon saying FSD could drive you cross country all by itself; that's what I want..

It's coming. Be patient. Once Tesla releases traffic light and automatic city driving and enables NOA on all roads, then that will be possible. Probably early next year if I had to guess.

I'm worried about stop lights and stop signs. If a Tesla on FSD runs a red light once every million intersections....then that is multiple red lights per day across the fleet. It needs to be so reliable that a Telsa runs a red on FSD less than once per year across the whole fleet. Even that will look horrible on the news even if it is 10x safer than human drivers.

Tesla knows this. That is why they are waiting until it is so good that that will never happen.
 

ratsbew

Active Member
Mar 3, 2012
1,293
1,043
O'Fallon, IL
I'm betting that we will have driveway to parking lot FSD out in beta by June 2020 that will be able to complete a trip 50% of the time without intervention. 50% doesn't sound great, but when you think about it, it is AMAZING. I was a kid in the 1990s, watching this tech develop before my very eyes is INSANE.

My bet also extends to 90% of trips not requiring intervention by 31 Dec 2020. 99% by 31 Dec 2021. And 1 trip in 10,000 by 31 Dec 2022. The 1 trip in 10,000 will be a "graceful" failure.
 
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