FSD - Level 2

[EVNow]

It is really pretty sad that Tesla doesn't transfer it to a new order for current customers when the features paid for are FAR from being released...

Yes - if they did, they'll generate more upgrades. Probably the only thing holding me from upgrading my 3 yr old Model 3.

I guess once they are no longer supply constrained ... or may be at the end of some quarter as a one off incentive.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Probably the only thing holding me from upgrading my 3 yr old Model 3.

You can think of buying FSD as a money-saving strategy, if that is the case.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Yes, features are identical, but the following paragraph and caveats are laid on top of this set of features, in both cases.

Yes, and those caveats have been there since day one.
My point is that - the changes in the wording do not change the deliverable promised.
Your point is that it does -- or rather that it gives Tesla an "out" from delivering L4+.

I think the text, as a whole, has enough data/info to show that I am correct.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

those caveats have been there since day one.

Yes, but they are different in 2016 vs. 2019/2021. They are simply not the same caveats. If you want to argue that they're equivalent somehow (lots of validation needed in both cases, validation will ensure it is very safe, etc., etc.), obviously that is up to you. But that's not how I read them; the verbiage changed for a reason and it is quite different now.

Your point is that it does -- or rather that it gives Tesla and "out" from delivering L4+.

I don't think it gives Tesla an "out." They are free to sell what they wish. To me it seems pretty clear that "L4+ in most circumstances" is promised to 2016 buyers.

Tesla is also obligated to provide what they described in the 2019 verbiage change in a reasonable timeframe, which I interpret to mean L2 (because it may require supervision indefinitely) or better, performing all the advertised operations. There's no out.

I think the text, as a whole, has enough data/info to show that I am correct.

We can agree to disagree. I think I understand your interpretation now. Obviously each of us are entitled to our own opinions and interpretations, and eventually, if Tesla does not deliver L4+ "soon," it will be litigated in court, probably - which is all that matters. That's where what was promised, and when, will be determined.

 

[shrineofchance]

Oh I am not surprised by the DMV emails. We all knew FSD Beta would be released as L2. The question is what will happen after release? I don't believe Elon's timeline of L5 happening later this year. I think it is very likely that FSD Beta will stay L2 for awhile.

Whether Elon’s latest timeline for autonomy will turn out to be accurate (something I’m always skeptical about — he’s been wrong X many times, but a broken clock is right twice a day) is a completely separate issue from the DMV emails.

Some people have misinterpreted the wording in the DMV emails, in some cases as just an innocent mistake, in other cases apparently in bad faith or willful ignorance, as containing some novel information about when or whether Tesla will achieve Level 5.

Conflating general skepticism about Elon’s timelines, which has nothing to do with the DMV emails, with misinterpretations of the DMV emails, muddies the waters.

There are legitimate reasons to be sceptical of Elon’s timelines, but the DMV emails are not one of them, and conflating well-grounded skepticism with an uncareful misreading of the emails will only mislead and confuse people even further.

 

[Cheburashka]

Yeah we know that. It's just that the marketing for FSD was misleading because Tesla made it sound like FSD would be L5 relatively soon. Heck, the CEO is saying that L5 will happen this year.

I see videos of people riding in their backseat, sleeping, etc popping up way more frequently now. Example:

Scary stuff. With FSD being hyped up even more front and center it's only a matter of time before someone kills someone and ruins it for the rest of us.

 

[shrineofchance]

Maybe. But there is a strong sentiment that they can't do Level 3+ with the sensor suite they have now. No side-looking front camera and zero redundancy for a start. If they ever get going on Level 3+ deployment testing they will never pass regulation.

At best they will have to keep these HW2.5 & HW3 cars at Level 2, and if there continue to be problems with detecting crossing traffic I would bet they will be made to remove those features from FSD. Sure, Tesla will just blame "the regulators", naturally.

That is why the reality IMO is very different from their plans and intentions.

These arguments have been around since 2016. Tesla has given its responses, including on Autonomy Day. This has nothing whatsoever to do with the California DMV emails that were released this month.

Rather than y’all wasting your time with this ginned up non-story, why not focus on the latest technical update on FSD?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

it's only a matter of time before someone kills someone and ruins it for the rest of us.

Seems likely. It's a shame really. Most likely an accident will be in some sort of situation like this or someone being equally irresponsible even if they're in the driver's seat. And then it will probably all be over. Just has to injure someone else, rather than just killing the driver.
This doesn't have the video camera icon, so I guess it's not the beta, and I assume he cut out the times when he had to satisfy the nags or has some other device to do so? I guess Tesla doesn't have any sort of higher nag frequency for lack of seat occupancy? Pretty extreme trolling, in any case. Why is there a sheepskin rug or faux sheepskin rug in the footwell? So many questions.

 

[diplomat33]

Whether Elon’s latest timeline for autonomy will turn out to be accurate (something I’m always skeptical about — he’s been wrong X many times, but a broken clock is right twice a day) is a completely separate issue from the DMV emails.

Some people have misinterpreted the wording in the DMV emails, in some cases as just an innocent mistake, in other cases apparently in bad faith or willful ignorance, as containing some novel information about when or whether Tesla will achieve Level 5.

Conflating general skepticism about Elon’s timelines, which has nothing to do with the DMV emails, with misinterpretations of the DMV emails, muddies the waters.

There are legitimate reasons to be sceptical of Elon’s timelines, but the DMV emails are not one of them, and conflating well-grounded skepticism with an uncareful misreading of the emails will only mislead and confuse people even further.

I think what bothers some people about the DMV emails is that they don't say anything about FSD Beta eventually becoming L5 after release. For example, the emails don't say "FSD Beta will be initially released as L2 but Tesla will continue to add OEDR until FSD Beta becomes L5." The emails just say "FSD Beta will be L2 on release". It makes people wonder what Tesla plans for FSD Beta after release.

And the emails clearly state that the FSD Beta that is released to the public will be the same as what we see now in the FSD Beta videos. So anyone watching the videos and unhappy by what they see and hoping that maybe Tesla would make FSD Beta more autonomous when it is released to the public, just got a major disappointment.

 

[Dan D.]

I see videos of people riding in their backseat, sleeping, etc popping up way more frequently now. Example:

Scary stuff. With FSD being hyped up even more front and center it's only a matter of time before someone kills someone and ruins it for the rest of u

LoL, SMH, or just scream, this is my new favourite idiot. I hope he enjoys sitting in the back seat of a car, I'm sure he's gonna get picked up for this video or the inevitable crash soon.

 

[GZDongles]

Yes, but they are different in 2016 vs. 2019/2021. They are simply not the same caveats. If you want to argue that they're equivalent somehow (lots of validation needed in both cases, validation will ensure it is very safe, etc., etc.), obviously that is up to you. But that's not how I read them; the verbiage changed for a reason and it is quite different now.



I don't think it gives Tesla an "out." They are free to sell what they wish. To me it seems pretty clear that "L4+ in most circumstances" is promised to 2016 buyers.

Tesla is also obligated to provide what they described in the 2019 verbiage change in a reasonable timeframe, which I interpret to mean L2 (because it may require supervision indefinitely) or better, performing all the advertised operations. There's no out.



We can agree to disagree. I think I understand your interpretation now. Obviously each of us are entitled to our own opinions and interpretations, and eventually, if Tesla does not deliver L4+ "soon," it will be litigated in court, probably - which is all that matters. That's where what was promised, and when, will be determined.

I agree, it's clear that additional caveats were added to the FSD page in 2019. Additionally, I think there is gray area between the descriptions on this FSD page (not connected to the ordering page) and what you see when your actually order a car.

To me, Tesla promised me a specific set of features when I paid for FSD. They never made any promises about anything above Level 2. The only feature as yet undelivered is "autosteer on city streets". For anyone who bought FSD after early 2019, you were not promised a Level 5 system.

In a sense, Tesla only has themselves to blame for the poor marketing choice of calling their driver assistance package "Full Self Driving". It's great to have an aspirational goal of a consumer Level 4/5 system, but now there is a lot of confusion with someone who buys FSD today and actually expects that they will get a robotaxi at some point in the future. Don't get me wrong, I'm extremely excited about the Level 2 FSD beta, but I also know what I paid for and don't have unrealistic expectations of getting a Level 4/5 system at any point.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That is all they are prepared to give us. That is what they consider is the end point to satisfy the requirements of FSD. Yes, they may/will develop further, but they could stop here. Level 2.

The emails are pretty clear that they regard City Streets as a level 2 system, yes. That will satisfy the requirements of their FSD product (which is not the same as full self-driving without supervision).

They say that right in the email, so I don't think anyone is debating that.

But they are definitely not going to stop there - and they say that in the emails as well. How and when that will happen, we don't know yet.

Nobody has called their bluff, and at this point I think they have laid their cards down.

I don't think there is any bluff. At least since 2019 (it's a different ballgame for earlier buyers), it was very clear at the time of purchase that FSD and Autosteer on City Streets is a level 2 system - it says right there on the order page that the system does not make the vehicle autonomous. And the other caveats discussed above (not the order page, as mentioned there is slightly different verbiage on each page but neither implies anything beyond level 2) also make it very clear it's level 2.

It's just level 2. There is no laying the cards down. That's just what it is and has been promised since 2019. I imagine they're pretty happy at this point they made the change to the verbiage in 2019 - it takes a lot of pressure off! It's not an "out;" it's just a different product.

But none of this prevents the system at some point in the future being L4+, Tesla continuing such development, and if it's possible with the existing hardware, undoubtedly they will roll it out to every FSD owner they can. If it's not possible with the hardware, presumably only owners who purchased prior to the 2019 change will be eligible for upgrades that make the L4+ possible (assuming that is technically possible). Obviously Tesla is not going to stop at the L2 driver assist of Autosteer on City Streets! They clearly need to get L4+ going ASAP and they're going to keep trying. At the moment, it doesn't seem that Tesla thinks the development of the L2 system is slowing their development of L4 (right now there is no branch on those development paths).

 

[Dan D.]

I agree, it's clear that additional caveats were added to the FSD page in 2019. Additionally, I think there is gray area between the descriptions on this FSD page (not connected to the ordering page) and what you see when your actually order a car.

To me, Tesla promised me a specific set of features when I paid for FSD. They never made any promises about anything above Level 2. The only feature as yet undelivered is "autosteer on city streets". For anyone who bought FSD after early 2019, you were not promised a Level 5 system.

In a sense, Tesla only has themselves to blame for the poor marketing choice of calling their driver assistance package "Full Self Driving". It's great to have an aspirational goal of a consumer Level 4/5 system, but now there is a lot of confusion with someone who buys FSD today and actually expects that they will get a robotaxi at some point in the future. Don't get me wrong, I'm extremely excited about the Level 2 FSD beta, but I also know what I paid for and don't have unrealistic expectations of getting a Level 4/5 system at any point.

That seems reasonable. Do we suppose everyone who ordered FSD from 2019 is not expecting anything above Level 2 also?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Do we suppose everyone who ordered FSD from 2019 is not expecting anything above Level 2 also

Undoubtedly there are many people from early 2019 and onwards who did not read and absorb the verbiage that says FSD does not make the vehicle autonomous. "The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. " Note the "currently enabled" makes this statement a bit ambiguous (there has been a variety of wording on this order page verbiage over the years, and that history is not exciting), which is why the Autopilot page referenced above is good for the prospective buyer to read more about the exact capabilities & promise of the system. But anyway, on the order page, they also don't say that Autosteer on City Streets will be autonomous - and the emails show that it's not planned to be, which in my opinion should be a surprise to no one. In a way, the emails clear up that remaining ambiguity, once and for all. (Until such time that a new L4+ product is promised by Tesla, which undoubtedly it will be, at some point.)

 

[shrineofchance]

I think what bothers some people about the DMV emails is that they don't say anything about FSD Beta eventually becoming L5 after release. For example, the emails don't say "FSD Beta will be initially released as L2 but Tesla will continue to add OEDR until FSD Beta becomes L5." The emails just say "FSD Beta will be L2 on release". It makes people wonder what Tesla plans for FSD Beta after release.

The emails clearly state that Tesla plans to develop SAE Level 3+ software. Tesla’s mention of “SAE Level 2” in the email refers only to the initial full release of the FSD City Streets beta to the customer fleet.

Aside from the emails, Elon has said again and again and again and again and again that the plan is for SAE Level 4 or 5 autonomy. Karparthy has consistently said the same thing, most recently on Pieter Abbeel’s podcast.

There is literally no reason to be confused or concerned about Tesla’s plans for Level 4 or 5 autonomy based on these emails.

And the emails clearly state that the FSD Beta that is released to the public will be the same as what we see now in the FSD Beta videos. So anyone watching the videos and unhappy by what they see and hoping that maybe Tesla would make FSD Beta more autonomous when it is released to the public, just got a major disappointment.

This is an unreasonable hope, though, because Elon has clearly stated many times that would not be the case. The software needs to be tested over billions of miles before they will let the driver stop assuming responsibility for the car.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The emails clearly state that Tesla plans to develop SAE Level 3+ software.

I agree.

Tesla’s mention of “SAE Level 2” in the email refers only to the initial full release of the FSD City Streets beta to the customer fleet.

It doesn't say "initial full," for the record, it says "final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature"

There is literally no reason to be confused or concerned about Tesla’s plans for Level 4 or 5 autonomy based on these emails.

I agree. There's no new information in these emails about where Tesla is in their development of L2 and L3+ systems, and what are their objectives.

 

[Dan D.]

It doesn't say "initial full," for the record, it says "final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature"

"Final". That was my point, my question, and the reason for the thread.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

"Final". That was my point, my question, and the reason for the thread.

Yes, and in future, as in the past, they can change the product definition, leaving the name of the product the same, or they can pick a new product name for future development. We have no idea what they'll choose to do; it will depend on marketing and the value of that particular terminology. So in the future, Autosteer on City Streets could be L4+ for certain (possibly only future) model years. But that wouldn't change the fact that the final release of Autosteer on City Streets is L2, for the current embodiment (but those same vehicles receiving the final Autosteer on City Streets as an L2 system in the future could receive a new final release of the updated definition Autosteer on City Streets as an L4+ system, if the hardware allows it - I don't think Tesla would ask the current FSD buyers for more cash to get the updated definition, unless it requires more hardware, and of course for the pre-2019 buyers they couldn't even do that).

It could understandably be a little confusing to someone without prior knowledge of the history, but all a buyer needs to know is what they're buying at a given point in time. The rest is up to the historians.

 

[shrineofchance]

"Final". That was my point, my question, and the reason for the thread.

This is such a nitpicky misreading of the emails. In context, when the DMV asks about the “final release”, they are clearly asking about the version of FSD City Streets that will be released to the general public, as opposed to the Early Access version. “Final” does not mean “final for all eternity”. There is no such thing as a “final for all eternity” version of FSD software.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is such a nitpicky misreading of the emails. In context, when the DMV asks about the “final release”, they are clearly asking about the version of FSD City Streets that will be released to the general public, as opposed to the Early Access version. “Final” does not mean “final for all eternity”. There is no such thing as a “final for all eternity” version of FSD software.

I'm really not sure why you disagreed with my post, then. We seem to agree. "Final release" in this context means that Tesla will have delivered what was promised to those 2019-onwards buyers, and they will view that product delivery as final. It doesn't mean that that will be literally the "final release," or that the definition of the product cannot be changed subsequently.

I actually kind of like their strategy. I do think there's some obvious danger involved - that's really the only sticking point and I do hope they work hard to minimize abuse of the system. They're able to tiptoe a very fine line with the DMV and get a lot of beneficial information for their ongoing development, even though they're not technically developing a L3+ system at this time.