FSD Beta may take actions that make you almost *sugar* your pants, so it's probably best to hover over the seat as well.
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FSD price increase on Jan 17
- Thread starter EVRider-FL
- Start date
I did, Tesla promised a full refund for FSD purchase. (Still waiting for the refund check)
When purchased the car, my expectation (based on Tesla FSD marketing materials) was quite different from the outcome. Today, after 4 years they have delivered nothing* for the money... With that, I do not any more believe that Tesla will ever deliver FSD to early buyers.
*) With the minute exception of "stop at traffic lights" feature
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Of course they will, “eventually”, in some gimped but legally defensible capacity. They sure as sugar aren’t giving all the money back.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
3k or 4k would be the correct price for the feature set as it stand today.
It's definitely not worth 12k
I sold my 2018 Model 3 just before Thanksgiving, simply because I don't drive more than 10 miles a week & we had 2 other old gas cars that are also not being driven that much & were already paid off.
We were looking at a Model Y in late 2022 once the prices come down to a sane level.
But, if this price increase insanity continues then while the next car is likely to be a Tesla (we already have the wall charger installed since 2018)
we may just use regular EAP & thats ok for our use case. I don't see the value in spending another $12k on an already expensive car.
($70k is nuts for a car with no air suspension etc Model 3/Y)
I still have a CT dual motor config reservation & if they start messing with that then they will loose a customer.
The service centers have been exceptionally nice to deal with while I had the car for 3 years, Tesla needs to fix their sales channel as it's not a good experience & at some point people may sour on them.
It is possible that per above posts, Tesla is pricing this high to discourage new buyers & also probably to hedge against any backlash if they are not able to deliver a feature complete FSD stack & will have to deal with a smaller pool of potential litigants
They could jack up the price & deliver FSD in a few months if they are so confident, but then they still have to deal with the existing laws & certification which could take a while.
ie states have to have something is place thats not Tesla specific & is equally applicable to any other car maker
It's definitely not worth 12k
I sold my 2018 Model 3 just before Thanksgiving, simply because I don't drive more than 10 miles a week & we had 2 other old gas cars that are also not being driven that much & were already paid off.
We were looking at a Model Y in late 2022 once the prices come down to a sane level.
But, if this price increase insanity continues then while the next car is likely to be a Tesla (we already have the wall charger installed since 2018)
we may just use regular EAP & thats ok for our use case. I don't see the value in spending another $12k on an already expensive car.
($70k is nuts for a car with no air suspension etc Model 3/Y)
I still have a CT dual motor config reservation & if they start messing with that then they will loose a customer.
The service centers have been exceptionally nice to deal with while I had the car for 3 years, Tesla needs to fix their sales channel as it's not a good experience & at some point people may sour on them.
It is possible that per above posts, Tesla is pricing this high to discourage new buyers & also probably to hedge against any backlash if they are not able to deliver a feature complete FSD stack & will have to deal with a smaller pool of potential litigants
They could jack up the price & deliver FSD in a few months if they are so confident, but then they still have to deal with the existing laws & certification which could take a while.
ie states have to have something is place thats not Tesla specific & is equally applicable to any other car maker
sperkin
Active Member
Same here, but I'm not sure which year a 100% reliable FSD will come to market that allows us to watch TV or go to sleep. Right now, I don't think Tesla is quite there yet with the hardware. Around early mornings and late afternoons FSD beta will stop because a B-piller camera is blocked. There's still logic it needs to fix like shifting between lanes to allow other cars space. Right now the car hard brakes when another car drifts close to my lane. A human would just shift left or or right a couple if inches.
It's pretty frustrating when the car keeps a hard MPH. I like to speed but I know when to spend and when not to. Right now, the car will keep the set speed while going around a blind sweeper. There are intersections that are busy where I wouldn't even go at the speed limit because I know this is a confusing section and people will go straight front left turning lane. It's a left sweeper and the car in the left lane will not see me when I come around from the right. FSD doesn't anticipate this and will go at it at 45mph. It's an accident waiting to happen if I allow FSD to handle this.
SilverString
Member
Yes, I do not disagree, I was simply stating the existing requirements.
I wouldn't necessarily say that it's for people who don't know how to drive, or that they're bad/scared driver. I definitely agree with the screaming part though.
For the sake of argument lets say FSD worked really well, but due to regulatory issues it still has to be supervised.
Who does it benefit in this case?
I think it comes down to special use cases.
Whether they admit or not a lot of drivers are intimidated by stop sign controlled intersections that have a lot of cars arriving at the same time, and people going all sorts of directions. It's just too many cars for the human brain to keep track of. Heck half the time that I arrive I don't even know when the other cars to one side of me arrived as my vision is blocked by a car in the lane next to mine. I'd love for FSD to work as well as could be expected here.
The other case is areas where the driver isn't familiar with. There are a lot of intersections that aren't well thought out, and its not always clear about what lane goes where. It would be nice if FSD had pre-mapped knowledge of the intersection, and knew exactly how to handle it.
There are also other cases where I simply don't have the patience for an intersection. Like I tend to avoid unprotected lefts across multilanes of traffic because there is too much traffic. So I simply take a right and I go around. The total time is probably about equal.
I'm not particularly keen on roundabouts either. I enjoy the singe lane ones, but beyond that I start to get nervous quick.
Where I hope to use an FSD component the most is parking. I wish I could just exit my car and have the car go park itself. I'm the kind that will park blocks from where I want to go just so I don't have to deal with people/parking.
Even Tesla had a good reverse summon I might even go to Costco.
Obviously once they get to automated driving the use cases go up considerably. I'd love to have an autonomous camper van that would autonomous drive to the next camping spot as I hiked/biked down the coast. Now I know other people get these things called spouses and/or they pop out a kid. But, can't a robot do this? I don't really have much to say and spouses generally want someone to talk to.
To me the most important element to autonomous driving is reoccurring revenue. I don't know if MobileEye is in a position where they can structure their license in such a way to capitalize on subscription models.
With anything L3 or higher a subscription model is going to be really important for liability, SW improvements, and potentially regulatory reasons.
Even Tesla will likely capitalize on reoccurring revenue either through structing Tesla insurance to cover autonomous driving (and having part of the insurance going to it) or using the Tesla fleet money to go to those expenses, and other expenses with having an autonomous fleet.
If you purchased 4 years ago you paid $3K for FSD, and $5K for EAP. Right?
For the $3K you got FSD Beta and Vision autopark 4 years after you bought the car.
I don't think that deal is all the unpopular. I did the same thing as $3K for the HW3 upgrade, and having FSD related updates seemed like a good idea at the time.
But, it's going to be an entirely different story if you buy in a month or two.
You'll pay $12K for FSD on a vehicle that already has basic AP standard with the car, and HW3.
For that chunk of change you really need to be a believer in that will deliver either a fairly stellar L2 experience or actual autonomous driving. You can't exactly have tempered expectations with that chunk of change unless you're rich.
bo3bdar
Member
I understand what you are saying. My last car was 23 years old when I sold it, I drive them forever.
However, I think Teslas probably require a different perspective, because these are more tech than car. Imagine using a 23 year old computer today, or a 23 year old camera. For Tesla I feel like it's necessary to keep a newer car just to get the inevitable hardware updates.
Four already- larger 70kwh battery, heat pump, self dimming mirrors, AMD CPU. In my two years of ownership.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Yeah, reoccurring revenue is usually a good model for a lot of businesses, not just autonomous driving. It's why streaming services charge per month. rather than just charge once when you first activate the service.
If the automaker is using a subscription model, I think it would make sense for Mobileye to simply ask for a percentage of that subscription. That would give Mobileye reoccurring revenue from the automakers who charge a subscription for using Mobileye's ADS.
If the automaker is not using a subscription model, it might be trickier. I don't think it would make sense for automakers to pay a monthly subscription to Mobileye if they are not charging a monthly subscription to their customers. Mobileye could ask for a percentage of every FSD purchase. It would not be as predictable as a monthly subscription but it would give Mobileye a steady stream of income as new owners buy a car with FSD or add FSD later.
In conclusion, I think a logical model for Mobileye would be for Mobileye to first, sell the FSD hardware to automakers. That would give Mobileye an upfront revenue. I believe Mobileye is already doing this with their eyeQ chips but they could do it as well with their in-house radar and lidar. And then second, to negotiate a licensing agreement with automakers where the automaker must charge a subscription to their customers for using the FSD and Mobileye gets a percentage. The automaker would have some upfront cost for purchasing the hardware but would be guaranteed reoccurring revenue from the subscriptions. Mobileye gets both some revenue up front for selling the hardware and additional reoccurring revenue for using the software.
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And Wall Street places a higher value on reoccurring service income over one time "hardware" income.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Yes because reoccurring service revenue means steady, dependable, long term revenue which is a better investment. One time income is nice but there is uncertainty if the company can make the same income again. The company may make less income next quarter. So it is a less stable investment.
TresLA
Member
Again, I think the disconnect is how we view the bigger picture of FSD endeavors (not just Tesla’s). Yes, we were the EAP $5k + FSD Capability $3k group, but like I said the $12k (on top of the included/“free” basic AP) still seems worth it to us. We aren’t saying it’s the same prospect as the past (AP improvements, introduction of NoAP, included HW3 upgrade, etc.), but we also couldn’t have predicted where we would be now with our old Model 3. We don’t see it as paying for what it can do now, just like 4 years ago we didn’t see it as paying for what it could do then. FSD beta has been a great experience for me. I use it everyday on almost every drive, except when I’m in a rush to drive faster or just want to have some fun on California’s rarely wet roads. Every time I’m driving our old gas car or rental cars, I miss AP/FSD beta. I don’t think we’ve been fooled by Elon marketing, because we’ve never been convinced level 5 is possible soon. We have tempered expectations by imagining what steps are in between current capabilities and be-driven-while-asleep-in-the-backseat.
There’s actually a lot in between and it’s not a linear progression/path. Tesla is taking one (sometimes meandering) path, and I’m also interested in seeing the progress of the other players. But for now, Tesla is the easiest to acquire (as in, what you can actually purchase and use now). FWIW, GM Supercruise doesn’t add any value over Tesla’s current offering in my opinion Slightly torquing the wheel isn’t any worse than having to look straight ahead. Heck, with FSD beta we now do have to keep eyes up mostly and Supercruise being limited to a small percentage of my time diving makes Tesla’s hand-on-wheel requirement a small cost.
TresLA
Member
TresLA
Member
Our 2018 Model 3 is missing some hardware of the newer Model 3, but not enough to justify “upgrading” like we do our phones. (And we did get some minor things that people don’t get anymore like the NEMA 14-50 charging adapter, HomeLink hardware, premium connectivity, $10k cash back, frunk liner carpet, frunk shopping bag hooks, haha.)
As with some tech (and cars), a certain generation is a leap ahead enough that it’s not obsolete in as short a time frame as the model/generation just before. I really feel that way about our Model 3. We just happened to buy during a sweet spot (seats had just been changed from Model 3’s a month before, $10k cash back), as I’m someone that’s never really wanted the pre-refresh Model S/X. They were too “traditional car” for us and the Model 3 interior was a leap ahead.
So no, despite often upgrading our in-home/personal tech to the latest and greatest, we are approaching 4 years of Tesla Model 3 ownership and not feeling like we need to trade-in/upgrade. When we first purchased, we actually did plan to trade-in/upgrade at some point (dual motor and performance Model 3 weren’t available yet), but now we’ve changed plans and will keep this 2018 and add either a Performance 3 or CT (I’d jump at the Model S Plaid if we could afford it).
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Apple also offer subscription services like Apple TV+, Apple Music, iCloud storage and Apple care, plus iOS developers need a yearly subscription to access the SDK. They also generate steady ongoing revenue through their take on their App Store.
TresLA
Member
They’re starting to make more revenue from that, but it’s still a small percentage and not what got them to the “most valuable company in the world according to the stock market”. One-time purchase iPhone sales is what got them there and what Wall Street liked/recognized, and along with other hardware (one-time purchases like Macs, Apple Watches, iPads, etc.) still makes up the vast majority of their revenue.
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