They will HAVE to price it such that it is "obviously better" to pay for it up front, and this option only works for people who plan to use the feature very sparingly, or dont have the money to pay for it up front.
if there is any question that "paying for it up front" is "significantly" better, they are shooting themselves in the foot on the revenue. It has to be priced such that when someone is looking at their new car, there isnt a "question" that buying it up front is the financially "better" alternative.
Translation; I think those prices of $100 to $150 that people are throwing around are wishful thinking, especially if its a "start and stop when you wish" type subscription.
I agree to certain extent. We would need access to data that only, maybe, Tesla has.
Right now Tesla gets $7000 for each car with the upgrade. If Tesla gets the car back (leases or trade-in), they can re-charge the $7000 for that car.
We also know that some number of buyers are hesitant or will never pay the $7000, but they
would pay some smaller number each month.
All of this money for FSD is basically free money for Tesla, either way (except for the cost of upgrading HW).
Which one of these tactics makes more money is dependent upon how many people sign up for each. Tesla's accounting team has probably projected this. It is easy to guess that more people will subscribe for $150/month than will pay $7000, with a small pool, the $7000 will bring in more money; but as the pool grows larger, eventually it is likely that the $150 subscriptions will bring in money overall. That's especially true, if you factor in, that in all likelihood, subscriptions would probably make you pay for your own HW upgrades, when you want the new features.
Tesla does know one thing: Tesla fans will pay $7000 for promise. I doubt that they short sell themselves on a subscription model. I would be really surprised if they only charged $100-$150/month. That's just the number that would make sense to me, long term.
The people whose revenue they are trying to capture are not willing to pay a lot. If they price it too high, Tesla will be in the same boat they are in now, but probably worse, because some of the people who would have been willing to pay $7000 up front might decide to skip that and just pay $250/month sporadically. That would be the worst-case, if they were to lose both markets.
I assume that Tesla is smarter than me and has access to more data, so they will do what they project will be most beneficial. I just hope whatever that it is doesn't make it so I skip FSD, because I do want to be a part of that adventure.