Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Except someone trading a HW3 Model 3 for...a newer HW3 model 3... does not move that progress forward.
At all.
Hence why your story makes no sense in light of the Sept 30 cutoff date.
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FSD Transfer
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Except someone trading a HW3 Model 3 for...a newer HW3 model 3... does not move that progress forward.
At all.
Hence why your story makes no sense in light of the Sept 30 cutoff date.
For me the big draw is moving from a m3 to a mY. Always wanted one but FSD cost was a concern. I paid $6k for mine so it would be worth it. Even if HW3 was in the Y I would get.
Yesterday they gave me a version of the contract with the poison pill in it:
"4. The Full Self Driving capability can only be transferred once and so cannot be transferred to
another vehicle or another person even if the vehicle is privately sold. This offer cannot be combined with any other promotion and is not redeemable for cash."
I rather toss $250 then move FSD to a car that won't own FSD.
Any idea on how to get this corrected?
But someone trading ANY Tesla for an FSD HW4 vehicle does move progress forward. And they also don't want too many people to switch because they still need beta testers for HW3. And they also don't want to lose too much future revenue from too many people taking the deal.
The Sept 30 cutoff date can always be extended if needed.
I suspect that the take rate for FSD at $15K is near zero. Without this offer they would have very few FSD beta testers on HW4. Tesla doesn't want to wait for that to change. FSD has too much at stake.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I would link this page to your Sales Advisor Full Self-Driving Capability Transfers | Tesla Support
It's pretty explicit in the terms:
Then why not leave the offer open until Highland with HW4 ships for those wanting a 3. Thanks more beta testers of HW4 as you mention. However they are o my doing Q3 and Highland will most likely not drop till Q4 at soonest. So no HW4 M3 testers.
They will want a balance of HW3 and HW4 testers. If they don't get enough HW4 testers in Q3 then I expect them to extend the offer.
I don't think they need beta testers for M3+HW4 specifically. Just HW4 is all that matters.
Or to put it another way, I think it's likely that they have two builds of FSD beta. One is for HW3 and the other is for HW4.
They need beta testers for both builds. They will want to track stats like disengagements. For instance, Tesla will want to know disengagements per mile for HW3 versus HW4.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Why do you think something we know to be untrue is likely?
The same firmware runs on both currently.
That will change eventually, but for HW2.x-3 for example that took most of a year before there was any difference in the firmwares.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Because there's whole threads on what firmware various owners are on- and multiple websites dedicated to tracking it?
And we have folks like Green (and even Elon) commenting that, just like in the 2-3 transition, the code is currently better on the old HW, which last time was specifically due to the fact they were still running the old code on the new HW.
I already addressed that-- it's the last sentence you quoted. They will eventually. Historical info tells us it was ~March/April 2019 HW3 began being used in new cars, and it was roughly 1 year later before the HW2.x and HW3 features diverged... (you can argue either for 9 months or 1 year depending--- at 9 months the "fsd preview" feature rolled out, which only gave you a different visualization on the screen, there was no functional difference... and at ~1 year you got stop sign/light recognition which was a functional difference).
The premise that this is to get more testers on HW4 doesn't track.
1. FSD that works on HW4 has been and continues to be locked behind older software. All of the cars that have been purchased since around May cannot access FSD and Tesla is intentionally doing this.
2. This is an incentive to drive demand. Elon basically said this in the Q2 call...why assign a different narrative when we know the real one. Just like with 3 years of super charging and rebates have been used to drive demand in other quarters.
So you don't know when. It could be tomorrow. One historical data point tells us nothing.
I think it's hard to argue that Tesla does not need a good number of beta testers for both HW3 and HW4. The FSD transfer offer fills that need efficiently.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I know it's not today, which seems to be more than you knew when you began this rabbit hole of overly-complex reasoning for the terms of the transfer offer
I don't think that's hard at all.
Sales remain excellent and growing, take rate of FSD remains pretty similar to what it was under HW3, and we already know they can do a lot of the foundational work needed even on cars without the paid FSD option.
That's on top of the other flaws in your theory already pointed out (like the fact Model 3 owners using this offer to get a newer Model 3 will be trading up to... also HW3....)
How do you know the take rate? What is the take rate today?I know it's not today, which seems to be more than you knew when you began this rabbit hole of overly-complex reasoning for the terms of the transfer offer
I don't think that's hard at all.
Sales remain excellent and growing, take rate of FSD remains pretty similar to what it was under HW3, and we already know they can do a lot of the foundational work needed even on cars without the paid FSD option.
That's on top of the other flaws in your theory already pointed out (like the fact Model 3 owners using this offer to get a newer Model 3 will be trading up to... also HW3....)
They just sent me an e-signature form that corrected #4.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Honestly I think a better question is how you got so sure of your theory when it seems every element of it you're surprised to discover there's data and info available about it.
Troy tracked FSD take rate for years via his new owner survey data- and while it's not as perfect as from-Tesla data it has, historically, tracked very similar to the few times "from Tesla" data has been made public....Last I checked it had been pretty much flat around 14-15% in North America for like 5 or 6 straight quarters and even Tesla itself admitted take rate hasn't changed much even with subscription offerings having no real impact...
Take rate outside NA is quite low, but it always has been.
I'm not sure of my theory. It's only a theory. But you have not presented anything to make me doubt that theory.
It's been awhile since Troy updated us on his findings, right? Was Troy's last update before or after the price change from $10K to $15K? I believe it was before the price increase? And his findings were never very scientific. His survey almost certainly suffers from self-selection bias.
I'm quite sure that the take rate has gone down since the price increase and rising interest rates made it a lot more expensive.
But even if you knew the take rate Tesla expects this quarter, you also would need to know the number of FSD miles Tesla expects to be driven with HW4 with and without the offer. If you knew those things then you might be able to convince me that my theory is wrong.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
And yet you keep declaring your utter confidence in it without the slightest bit of evidence, and while dismissing all the significant evidence against.
I have of course- you just choose to dismiss those many reasons.
Last public post from him on this was end of 2022- and has data from after the 15k price was set. You also appear to have skipped entirely over the period it was 12k (which was from January 2022).
The data shows the take rate didn't move significantly as the price kept increasing from 10k to 12k to finally 15k.
Why do you keep insisting you are "quite sure" of things you have literally no evidence for- and what evidence does exist says otherwise?
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