FSD Transfer

[MP3Mike]

Really the Y vs S/X have different HW4 computers that odd. Different MCU makes sense but the camera module just seems like an off choice.

The MCU and AP computer are part of a single module. The S/X do have a different MCU with a GPU and extra screen outputs. That may be shared with the Cybertruck and Semi.

If that is the case they would only have two SKUs for the computer module. One for 3 and Y, and one for S, X, Cybertruck, and Semi.

 

[Usain]

Just put my order in for a new Silver Model Y Long Range with FSD transfer. The cool thing is that nowadays they assign your VIN almost immediately. The sales advisor was able to use the VIN to determine that I am definitely getting Hardware 4.

I'm getting the exact same specs I purchased 2.5 years ago, and the base price is only $500 more than when I bought it in 2021.

But this time I'm getting:

• $15,000 FSD which I paid $10,000 for originally
• Silver paint color for free.
• $500 referral bonus.
• $7500 tax credit.
• New $360 credit from my power company.
• Hardware 4
• Faster, AMD Ryzen video chip
• Softer suspension
• Brand new warranty (old car was over 60,000 miles)

I'm only losing:

• Passenger lumbar support
• Ultrasonic sensors
• Radar

Seemed like a pretty good deal to me.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm only losing:

• Passenger lumbar support
• Radar

And:

• Ultrasonic, i.e. parking, sensors
  • Which means no Summon, Smart Summon, or Autopark features are available at this time.

 

[Usain]

And:

• Ultrasonic, i.e. parking, sensors
  • Which means no Summon, Smart Summon, or Autopark features are available at this time.

Yea, I realized that I left out ultrasonics right after I posted. When I got the original car, summon/smart summon/autopark didn't really work anyway. Autopark is the only one of those three that is very useful right now. I don't mind losing that for awhile.

 

[Dhankx]

Tesla to allow FSD owners to transfer to new car, but only for next 2 months
Impact on Q3 and Q4 demand?

I'm now in the horrible situation of going to Y for this or waiting for Cybertruck. I need a hitch. My gut tells me they will offer something similar for cybertruck when they get production going. Thoughts?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685138153353416704

 

[jeremymc7]

I finally got my letter from Tesla today.

After running the numbers and with them not having Highland out yet either I’m not likely to be participating.

 

[Usain]

My theory about why Tesla is offering FSD transfer has to do with FSD development needs.

They need more FSD beta testers running on hardware 4. With the price at 15K, there will be very few takers. But by offering transfers, everyone who transfers to S/X/Y will get FSD on hardware 4.

Tesla will do whatever it takes to move FSD along. If that means spending a billion dollars on Dojo, that's what they will do. If it means free FSD transfers, they will do that too.

 

[JSolar]

I am considering trading my 16k mile 2019 M3 all wheel long range for a Model Y. A hitch on the rear would be a nice addition

 

[Knightshade]

My theory about why Tesla is offering FSD transfer has to do with FSD development needs.

They need more FSD beta testers running on hardware 4. With the price at 15K, there will be very few takers. But by offering transfers, everyone who transfers to S/X/Y will get FSD on hardware 4.

Tesla will do whatever it takes to move FSD along. If that means spending a billion dollars on Dojo, that's what they will do. If it means free FSD transfers, they will do that too.

If that theory were correct why would they limit it to ONLY ending Sept 30- meaning 3 owners who want a new 3 are shut out? There's VASTLY more 3 owners than S/X owners for example.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm now in the horrible situation of going to Y for this or waiting for Cybertruck. I need a hitch. My gut tells me they will offer something similar for cybertruck when they get production going. Thoughts?

Unlikely they will offer this for the Cybertruck. Demand for it is already "off-the-hook" and the early people that placed reservations for the Cybertruck were able to lock FSD prices in at $7k.

 

[Usain]

If that theory were correct why would they limit it to ONLY ending Sept 30- meaning 3 owners who want a new 3 are shut out? There's VASTLY more 3 owners than S/X owners for example.

Tesla is not shutting out owners who want a new M3. They can still do the transfer, but they won't get HW4. Tesla may not need HW4 beta testers who are specifically driving an M3.

If my theory is correct, Tesla will want to limit the number of customers who accept the offer. So they are making it for a limited time.

If I am correct and they don't get enough hardware 4 beta testers then they will extend the offer. I kind of expect them to at least extend it to any buyers who placed an order in Q3.

I see this as a way to get a lot of HW4 beta testers on the road. Otherwise, there would be very few of them.

 

[Usain]

And wow. I'm amazed at how quick delivery is these days. I just ordered yesterday and my car is expected between August 2nd and August 11th.

 

[jeremymc7]

Tesla is not shutting out owners who want a new M3. They can still do the transfer, but they won't get HW4. Tesla may not need HW4 beta testers who are specifically driving an M3.

If my theory is correct, Tesla will want to limit the number of customers who accept the offer. So they are making it for a limited time.

If I am correct and they don't get enough hardware 4 beta testers then they will extend the offer. I kind of expect them to at least extend it to any buyers who placed an order in Q3.

I see this as a way to get a lot of HW4 beta testers on the road. Otherwise, there would be very few of them.

It’s not just about getting a current 3. Not getting HW4 is a downside since it’s current on every other car. Also that Highland is coming soon and is supposed to be a significant redesign over the current 3.

I would expect most people who want to transfer to a new 3 are not going to want the current one and likewise do feel locked out due to above.

You can have a 3 but you have to take last years model is basically the vibe on this for 3 people.

It’s also kind of shady for them to say if you don’t receive the car within the timeline you don’t get the transfer. Really shady actually. Should be order date at the least. Maybe offer the courtesy extended for receipt beyond the cutoff.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla is not shutting out owners who want a new M3. They can still do the transfer, but they won't get HW4

But your premise was they're doing this to get more people on HW4.

Which you can't get if you're getting a 3.

Tesla may not need HW4 beta testers who are specifically driving an M3.

If my theory is correct, Tesla will want to limit the number of customers who accept the offer. So they are making it for a limited time.

...what?

How do you reconcile over just 2 posts claiming BOTH the above AND:

They need more FSD beta testers running on hardware 4. With the price at 15K, there will be very few takers. But by offering transfers, everyone who transfers to S/X/Y will get FSD on hardware 4.

Tesla will do whatever it takes to move FSD along.

Because those seem exactly the opposite claims of each other.

I see this as a way to get a lot of HW4 beta testers on the road. Otherwise, there would be very few of them.

Every new S/X/Y comes with HW4.... and they can collect the same data regardless of if you have FSD purchased or not-- and they can run the same software in shadow mode regardless of if you paid for FSD or not.


The only "theory" that fits how limited the timeframe here is is they want 2 things:

People to buy up all the remaining pre-highland inventory and they need to encourage them to do it without further price cuts.
and
The more of the old pre 3/19 FSD buyers who take the deal, the fewer they will owe something to when they admit they can't deliver what they promised to on those cars.

 

[Usain]

But your premise was they're doing this to get more people on HW4.

Which you can't get if you're getting a 3.




...what?

How do you reconcile over just 2 posts claiming BOTH the above AND:




Because those seem exactly the opposite claims of each other.





Every new S/X/Y comes with HW4.... and they can collect the same data regardless of if you have FSD purchased or not-- and they can run the same software in shadow mode regardless of if you paid for FSD or not.


The only "theory" that fits how limited the timeframe here is is they want 2 things:

People to buy up all the remaining pre-highland inventory and they need to encourage them to do it without further price cuts.
and
The more of the old pre 3/19 FSD buyers who take the deal, the fewer they will owe something to when they admit they can't deliver what they promised to on those cars.

My theory is totally sound.

Tesla needs beta testers on hardware 4. Shadow mode won't cut it. You don't get the disengagement feedback with shadow mode.

They need a certain number of beta testers on hardware 4. But they only need a certain number. They don't want to give away the store by letting every M3 owner who got FSD on the cheap to be able to transfer it to a Highland.

Tesla believes that they will get FSD to work on HW3. So they aren't worried about that.

I also expect Tesla to raise the price on FSD as soon as version 12 comes out. Probably to $25K.

 

[Knightshade]

My theory is totally sound.

Tesla needs beta testers on hardware 4. Shadow mode won't cut it. You don't get the disengagement feedback with shadow mode.

They need a certain number of beta testers on hardware 4. But they only need a certain number

Then why wouldn't the current massive # of Ys being sold suffice?

And why would letting owners transfer FSD from a HW3 Model 3 to a HW3 Model 3 help them in any way- since there's no indication any HW4 model 3s will be delivered before the window closes on this offer?


The ONLY "extra" testers you'd get would be specifically:

People who take the offer, but take it to trade a HW3 Model 3 for a HW4 Model Y, and only the number of THOSE that wouldn't otherwise have gone to people buying FSD anyway since Tesla continues to have more Y buyers than they do cars being made.


So not only does your theory require a ton of mental gymnastics, the math doesn't even make sense.

While the two, much simpler, reasons for the offer I gave both check out pretty cleanly without requiring any of that.

Occams razor.

 

[Usain]

Then why wouldn't the current massive # of Ys being sold suffice?

And why would letting owners transfer FSD from a HW3 Model 3 to a HW3 Model 3 help them in any way- since there's no indication any HW4 model 3s will be delivered before the window closes on this offer?


The ONLY "extra" testers you'd get would be specifically:

People who take the offer, but take it to trade a HW3 Model 3 for a HW4 Model Y, and only the number of THOSE that wouldn't otherwise have gone to people buying FSD anyway since Tesla continues to have more Y buyers than they do cars being made.


So not only does your theory require a ton of mental gymnastics, the math doesn't even make sense.

While the two, much simpler, reasons for the offer I gave both check out pretty cleanly without requiring any of that.

Occams razor.

I think my theory is much simpler.

Tesla cares about FSD development more than anything else. They need FSD beta testers on HW4 as soon as possible. Offering a transfer is the only way to do that without lowering the price of FSD.

This accomplishes the goals you set out in your reasons as well. Both of us can be right. But I believe the primary driver is FSD development. That's Tesla's number one priority.

 

[Knightshade]

I think my theory is much simpler.

Tesla cares about FSD development more than anything else. They need FSD beta testers on HW4 as soon as possible. Offering a transfer is the only way to do that without lowering the price of FSD.

This accomplishes the goals you set out in your reasons as well. Both of us can be right. But I believe the primary driver is FSD development. That's Tesla's number one priority.

Again this makes no actual sense because folks trading in an FSD Model 3 for a new model 3 will...still be on HW3.

If your theory was true they wouldn't cut off the trade in date before HW4 Model 3s were available.

 

[Usain]

Again this makes no actual sense because folks trading in an FSD Model 3 for a new model 3 will...still be on HW3.

If your theory was true they wouldn't cut off the trade in date before HW4 Model 3s were available.

It makes perfect sense. They don't want to wait and they don't want too many people to take the deal.

FSD progress is what matters above all else.