General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Nope. Tesla sold less than 28k cars in Europe in 2017, and well over 10k were to non-EU countries (8k+ Norway, 2k+ Switzerland). So, about 17k to EU countries. If they lose half of that, we’re talking 8500 cars annually.

But much of that supply could be pulled to the US, where there is currently a 3-4 month wait for newly ordered cars. They could likely push a lot of that supply to Asia as well, but I don’t know the current wait times there. So, we’re looking at a worldwide sales hit of maybe 5000 cars, maybe a lot less than that. It would suck, but not a chance it could wipe out Tesla.

The real danger is if this political trade nonsense goes on for more than 6-12 months & triggers a global recession. That would hit sales numbers everywhere, and would put Tesla in a very precarious cash position until Model 3 is in full production with strong margins. And no one knows when that will be.

EU is targeting red state products to hurt Trump and his supporters. Harley Davidson, Kentucky whisky and Levi geans.

Tariffs don't work which is about the only thing everyone agrees, red or blue or even libertarian. It's rare that you get that kind of agreement. That is independent of the retaliation, which also doesn't work and hurts both parties. The smart thing for Europe to do would be to compromise and remove some trade barriers. It would neutralize Trump and actually be the right thing to do while retaliation would be as bad as the original tariffs and are clearly political based on the targets.

 

[RobStark]

Probably not, eu has threatened to Target red state products to hurt Trump. Harley Davidson, Kentucky whisky and Levi geans.

Levi Strauss is headquartered in San Francisco.

3% of Levi jeans are "made in the USA" in North Mariana Islands.

Rest in China.

 

[Reciprocity]

Since Tesla assembles Gen II vehicles in The Netherlands, they escape EU tariffs.

And as said above significant Tesla markets Norway and Switzerland are outside the EU and the UK may soon be there too.

Tariffs on European cars coming to the US would rise from 2.5% to 25%.

In theory, American cars shipped to Europe would see tariffs rise from 10% to 25%. Unless all hell breaks lose and WTO is thrown completely out the window and the EU goes above 25%. Expect Trump to at least match the craziness of the EU too in this scenario.

Tesla can gain significant US market share if A8,A7,S Class CLS, 7 Series 6 Series, et al go up 25% in the US market. These folks aren't buying primarily Cadillacs and Lincolns. Maybe Lexus. But a large portion would go to Tesla.

BMW manufactures all their SUVs in South Carolina so they would escape the tariff.

Mercedes assembles Model X competitors GLS and GLE in Alabama.

Only Audi,Porsche, Jaguar Range Rover, and Alfa Romeo build their Model X competitors in Europe.

I gather it would be easy for FCA to manufacture the Alfa Romeo Stelvio in the USA instead of Milan if need be.

What stops Trump levying some type of pain on cars produced here by foreign companies. An example is China forces car companies to partner and share IP with Chinese auto makers. I mean hell, socialist countries just seize entire industries, for example XOM and Venezuela. Not that I think it's a good idea, but we are dealing with someone who loves winning so much and may not be very rational. Trump is right that having huge trade deficits gives him leverage and he could inflict 10x the pain as anyone who might retaliate. The effects of that would devastate the world economy and probably start world war 3. My guess is that this is all bluster and a negotiating tactic because the l alternative is 100% chance for everyone losing. Some might lose more then others but no one would lose more than Trump in even the best case scenario. He needs these tariffs to bring trade partners to the table in weakened positions or they fail miserably. The idea is that they will be more rational than Trump.

 

[Reciprocity]

Levi Strauss is headquartered in San Francisco.

3% of Levi jeans are "made in the USA" in North Mariana Islands.

Rest in China.

Maybe it was Wrangler geans? Or maybe they are not smart. Either way, they are targeting Republicans.

 

[RobStark]

What stops Trump levying some type of pain on cars produced here by foreign companies. An example is China forces car companies to partner and share IP with Chinese auto makers.

Congress of the US of America and Supreme Court of the United States.

The US is not fascist China( they stopped being Communist long ago). At least not yet.

BTW same goes for Tesla vis-a-vis the EU. In order for the EU to punish Teslas assembled in Europe they would need to abandon their own rule of law. That would scare the bejezus of every company investing in a foreign market. Including intra EU investment.

 

[RobStark]

Maybe it was Wrangler geans? Or maybe they are not smart. Either way, they are targeting Republicans.

It was Levis.

Juncker is just an ignoramus.

 

[Reciprocity]

Congress of the US of America and Supreme Court of the United States.

The US is not fascist China( they stopped being Communist long ago). At least not yet.

Really? Wouldn't be the first time a president signed an exciting order that was not constitutional. Nor the last.

 

[Reciprocity]

Levi Strauss is headquartered in San Francisco.

3% of Levi jeans are "made in the USA" in North Mariana Islands.

Rest in China.

Are you saying Levi's made in China would not be subject to tariffs because they were not base in the US?

 

[RobStark]

Really? Wouldn't be the first time a president signed an exciting order that was not constitutional. Nor the last.

Not like this.

Not being held up by SCOTUS.

 

[RobStark]

Are you saying Levi's made in China would not be subject to tariffs because they were not base in the US?

I am saying they would not be subject to the anti-Trump tariffs on American good.

The Chinese would be threatening all those automotive JVs in China if they did.

 

[Reciprocity]

I am saying they would not be subject to the anti-Trump tariffs on American good.

The Chinese would be threatening all those automotive JVs in China if they did.

Everyone understands that America doesn't export much of anything anymore. Levi's is a prime example, they are apparently a Chinese export not an American export. Then again, Levi's probably exports it's made in America jeans to Europe and imports is made in China jeans to America.

Part of the reason we don't make and export things any more is because every levies duties on our imports while we just let stuff flow right in. It's really odd that many foreign companies make things here, Mostly cars. Probably because they are expensive to ship and no one wants to tie up all that capital riding on boat for a month. We probably wouldn't even need to import steel if it wasn't for foreign made cars in the US. So much irony.

Anyway. Trade wars are bad but it takes two to tango. Let's see how petty Europe and Canada are because I know how petty Trump can be.

 

[RobStark]

Everyone understands that America doesn't export much of anything anymore. Levi's is a prime example, they are apparently a Chinese export not an American export. Then again, Levi's probably exports it's made in America jeans to Europe and imports is made in China jeans to America.

3% of Levi Jeans are made inside US territory. Not much of any US Levi jean production is heading anywhere. My guess is these are their most expensive or their iconic 501s.

A better way to target Republicans than putting a European tax on Wisconsin made Harleys, Kentucky Bourbon and Levi Jeans is to put a 25% Tax on VWs made in Tennessee,BMWs made in South Carolina, and Mercedes made in Alabama.

I am sure the Solid South that voted for Trump will be greatfull he destroyed so many high paying blue color jobs and three engines of growth in the South in 2020. And transferred so much wealth to Japanese made Lexus and California made Teslas.

 

[renim]

3% of Levi Jeans are made inside US territory. Not much of any US Levi jean production is heading anywhere. My guess is these are their most expensive or their iconic 501s.

A better way to target Republicans than putting a European tax on Wisconsin made Harleys, Kentucky Bourbon and Levi Jeans is to put a 25% Tax on VWs made in Tennessee,BMWs made in South Carolina, and Mercedes made in Alabama.

I am sure the Solid South that voted for Trump will be greatfull he destroyed so many high paying blue color jobs and three engines of growth in the South in 2020. And transferred so much wealth to Japanese made Lexus and California made Teslas.

yeah but how many of those are exported to the EU?

Hypothetically those plants could export 100% of production and still export nothing to EU. I mean there are a lot of Japanese owned factories all around the world that export close to nothing back to Japan, but still create a lot of exports. Wouldn't it be the same for European car manufacturers?

 

[Sparky]

Everyone understands that America doesn't export much of anything anymore. ...

Exports are about $1.5T(US). Second in the world. Not too shabby but exports are down since 2013, up from 2016. Top 2 destinations for US exports are Canada and Mexico.

• 1) Machinery including computers: US$201.7 billion (13% of total exports)

• 2) Electrical machinery, equipment: $174.2 billion (11.3%)

• 3) Mineral fuels including oil: $138 billion (8.9%)

• 4) Aircraft, spacecraft: $131.2 billion (8.5%)

• 5) Vehicles: $130.1 billion (8.4%)

• 6) Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $83.6 billion (5.4%)

• 7) Plastics, plastic articles: $61.5 billion (4%)

• 8) Gems, precious metals: $60.4 billion (3.9%)

• 9) Pharmaceuticals: $45.1 billion (2.9%)

• 10) Organic chemicals: $36.2 billion (2.3%)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Everyone understands that America doesn't export much of anything anymore.

$2.2 trillion. $1.5 trillion (as Sparky beat me to the punch) of goods, and another $700 billion of services.

What America Sells To The World

Edit: $700 billion, not $7 billion.

 

[Tenable]

Tariffs on EU cars to US.

Trump threatens to slap retaliatory tariff on European cars as trade war talks heats up

No wonder the BMW i3 price was slashed as reported by electrek. I think there’s a huge benefit for TSLA, but TSLA is not restricted by demand as we all know, but the supply. What do you guys think about this potential tariffs? Would it benefit or harm TSLA?

You're the future TSLA CEO, you tell us.

 

[aronth5]

We have VIN 80xx assigned! (Closer to 8100). Configed 2/14.

I just got assigned a 94xx VIN today.

Hopefully this is a good sign for the ramp up which everyone has been waiting for.

 

[Reciprocity]

$2.2 trillion. $1.5 trillion (as Sparky beat me to the punch) of goods, and another $700 billion of services.

What America Sells To The World

Edit: $700 billion, not $7 billion.

Total value of U.S. trade worldwide 2004-2016 | Statistic
Of course I exaggerate. 2016 shows 3.6T in imports and 1.5T in exports. The fact is we have the largest economy in the world and that kind of imbalance cannot go in forever. The other fact is that we are the only ones who believe in fair trade, the rest of the world believes in high import duties or taxes for American goods. Tariffs are bad, but reciprocal taxes would be great.

The other problem is that when you have tariffs against one country and free trade with another, they just game the system and moved stuff through the free trade country to avoid the duties.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

It's really odd that many foreign companies make things here, Mostly cars. Probably because they are expensive to ship and no one wants to tie up all that capital riding on boat for a month. We probably wouldn't even need to import steel if it wasn't for foreign made cars in the US. So much irony.

I've read that one reason foreign automakers build cars in the U.S. rather than import from the home country because they want to partially insulate themselves from currency exchange rate fluctuations.

 

[jhm]

It's amazing to me how quickly the GOP dumped the principle of free trade and free markets at just the moment renewables start to undercut fossil fuels.

Just to be clear what conservatives used to give lip service to, here's classic Milton Friedman.