General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

You're not helping your cause by arguing about 2 minutes vs. 3. My point is a valid one. Tesla is not making track cars nor is their corporate mission ("Accelerating the world's transition to sustainable transport.") having anything to do with racing.

You are knowingly or not arguing that 2018 Tesla is no better than the 2014 Model S that went into limp mode at Nurburgring in July 2014.

Tesla is about making the best cars in class. If Porsche introduces a better $100k sedan then Tesla must respond. It is that simple.

If Tesla was all about creating cars with the narrow rational interpretation of "Accelerating the world's transition to sustainable to transport" it would make a better LEAF and a better electric Rogue. Emotion, sexiness, bragging rights plus more go into a car purchase decision and getting people to actually transition from ICE to BEV.

Tesla Model S 2.0 will benchmark the competition. Tesla knows Mission E is coming.

BTW Elon commented Tesla will not be chasing Porsche to 800 volt fast charging because such a battery compromises range. In addition to significantly raising cost which Musk believes is not a good trade off for the customer. Whereas Mission E will get ~250 EPA mile range big battery Model S 2.0 will likely get in excess of 350 mile EPA range.

 

[JRP3]

First you assume people are rational. Second you assume range is the most important factor...

Range and cost are literally the first two questions most people ask about an EV. An efficient vehicle shape, (sedan), is the best way to increase range from a smaller battery, (lower cost).

 

[JRP3]

You can't track any Tesla's available for sale

Model 3?

 

[22522]

On a completely different note, I would like to comment on what I feel is a strategic error. I think the model Y, should of come before the 3. I think partly the reason a sedan was chosen was due to geo-centric thinking (California "car" culture). The shift from sedan to small and mid-size SUV's has been happening for over a decade now in Canada. Even when the 3 was announced, most cities in Canada that I lived in were already pushing half SUV's, and at the very least the trend lines were obvious. This has come in the spotlight recently with Ford's announcement to essentially stop making most sedans. A few years back you could not go more than a few pages on this thread without someone mentioning how Gretzky would say 'you have to skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is', and I really feel Tesla did not do that. I mean I will buy a model 3, but if I had the choice, I would take the Y. I also feel most people would make that same choice and hence feel demand would be even greater if it was a mid-size SUV coming out.

The extra frontal area of an SUV pushes the battery size up for a given range at 70 mph.That used to mean weight, cost and volume.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

You are knowingly or not arguing that 2018 Tesla is no better than the 2014 Model S that went into limp mode at Nurburgring in July 2014.

Tesla is about making the best cars in class. If Porsche introduces a better $100k sedan then Tesla must respond. It is that simple.

If Tesla was all about creating cars with the narrow rational interpretation of "Accelerating the world's transition to sustainable to transport" it would make a better LEAF and a better electric Rogue. Emotion, sexiness, bragging rights plus more go into a car purchase decision and getting people to actually transition from ICE to BEV.

Tesla Model S 2.0 will benchmark the competition. Tesla knows Mission E is coming.

BTW Elon commented Tesla will not be chasing Porsche to 800 volt fast charging because such a battery compromises range. In addition to significantly raising cost which Musk believes is not a good trade off for the customer. Whereas Mission E will get ~250 EPA mile range big battery Model S 2.0 will likely get in excess of 350 mile EPA range.

I don't know who you think you are arguing with but I do know what I'm talking about. Tesla has not redesigned the cooling system in S/X since 2014. A P100D has the same restrictions as a 2014 launch S.

Tesla Model S P90D At The Nurburgring (Video)

There is no evidence whatsoever that there will be a new "2.0" Model S and it's clear that Elon isn't interested in doing that just for Porsche. The idea that Tesla would design and market a new Model S just for the Mission-E is silly. Porsche is not a real competitor to Tesla until they prove they have enough batteries to sell any EV in volume and everyone knows it. So no, I'm not expecting a "Model S 2.0" just to compete with Mission-E and I expect to be proven right about that next year.

 

[Thumper]

I am willing to cede all sales of cars that people will actually take to a race track to other brands. This is a minuscule percent of cars sold.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I am willing to cede all sales of cars that people will actually take to a race track to other brands. This is a minuscule percent of cars sold.

You are correct. That's why I'm not expecting a new design Model S/X until after the Semi, Roadster, Y, and maybe even pickup are all launched.

 

[sub]

You can't track any Tesla's available for sale and they aren't planning to have one you can track until the $250k Roadster. If you actually take a Model S/X to a track you'll have fun for about 2 minutes until the battery pack overheats and throttles power output. Also the brakes are not remotely adequate for a track and also overheat quickly when used there. Sporty looking and actual sports cars are completely different things.

One thing I do respect about the Mission-E is that Porsche has absolute respect for their racing heritage and that car will be driveable on the track longer than about 2 minutes.

 

[MartinAustin]

You can't track any Tesla's available for sale <blah blah blah>

There are more people on this forum who care about you (and that is a small number) than people at Tesla who care about tracking cars.

Tesla doesn't care at all about the track. Their mission is to replace all combustion-engined cars with electric cars. 99.9999% of all the cars in the world have never been on a track and never will. Tesla has its work cut out replacing those.

There are a lot of Porsche owners who never take their cars on tracks... but they like buying Porsches because it gives them that option... even if they never do it. Tesla will replace most of the Porsche sales that go to people in this latter category. Especially the wealthy parent types who buy Cayennes.

You may say that this won't hurt the domination of the 911 GT3 on the track, and directly, that is true. However, if Porsche's sales hurt so bad that the only cars they are selling are the kind that definitely do get taken onto the track, well, they will have to stop making those. There are like 20 variations of 911... all propped up financially by the Macan and Cayenne. Macan and Cayenne are doomed by Tesla at this point.

By the time Tesla has achieved worldwide market dominance via their directive to replace those millions of cars around the globe that never get taken to the track, there won't be a serious ICE-based competitor that is on the track. Track cars will be electric by then... the problems with electric track racing will have been solved by someone else, e.g. Porsche/Ferrari/McLaren et. al. Good luck to those guys, and thanks. By then, Tesla can proclaim "mission accomplished."

 

[MartinAustin]

The extra frontal area of an SUV pushes the battery size up for a given range at 70 mph.That used to mean weight, cost and volume.

Exactly. This is why sedans (and the Roadster) have taken precedence at Tesla.

It's an indictment to the USA's disregard for energy efficiency that SUVs became so popular. Gasoline is relatively untaxed, and cheap enough to power large brick-shaped SUVs and trucks along the road, even if they are very wasteful of energy.

 

[dhrivnak]

I am willing to cede all sales of cars that people will actually take to a race track to other brands. This is a minuscule percent of cars sold.

And not all tracks as a Tesla does very well on autocross courses and drag strips which I would wager are the bulk of amateur racing.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

There are more people on this forum who care about you (and that is a small number) than people at Tesla who care about tracking cars.

Tesla doesn't care at all about the track. Their mission is to replace all combustion-engined cars with electric cars. 99.9999% of all the cars in the world have never been on a track and never will. Tesla has its work cut out replacing those.

There are a lot of Porsche owners who never take their cars on tracks... but they like buying Porsches because it gives them that option... even if they never do it. Tesla will replace most of the Porsche sales that go to people in this latter category. Especially the wealthy parent types who buy Cayennes.

You may say that this won't hurt the domination of the 911 GT3 on the track, and directly, that is true. However, if Porsche's sales hurt so bad that the only cars they are selling are the kind that definitely do get taken onto the track, well, they will have to stop making those. There are like 20 variations of 911... all propped up financially by the Macan and Cayenne. Macan and Cayenne are doomed by Tesla at this point.

By the time Tesla has achieved worldwide market dominance via their directive to replace those millions of cars around the globe that never get taken to the track, there won't be a serious ICE-based competitor that is on the track. Track cars will be electric by then... the problems with electric track racing will have been solved by someone else, e.g. Porsche/Ferrari/McLaren et. al. Good luck to those guys, and thanks. By then, Tesla can proclaim "mission accomplished."

You're right and that's what I was telling the other guy. There wasn't any need to attack me with the first line of your post when we are agreeing here.

The track thing has been solved by the likes of NIO with the EP9 and Rimac with the Concept One. And yes, the new Roadster is also expected to solve that problem. I just don't see Tesla caring about it on the S/X and it seems we agree about that.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just putting this out there... the current Model S 75D gets 4% more range than current RWD S75's. (well, "new inventory" S75's)

If the new AWD non-perf Model 3 gets 4% more range than the current LR variant, that would be 322 EPA Combined miles.

That's almost the same as the 335 of the Model S 100D. I wonder if they are going to do anything to defend the range of the flagship, which otherwise, might have only 4% more range than the AWD LR Model 3.

Like...
1) a 110kWh single battery pack for Model S ? (using 18650 or 21700?)
2) an altogether-refreshed Model S with dual battery packs? (as seen in the recent video IMO)

When the AWD Model 3 begins deliveries, it'll have been 18 months since Tesla introduced Ludicrous Plus mode, and 2 years since the P100D w/ Ludicrous mode. There haven't been any serious upgrades to the Model S for going on 2 years. The elephant in the room is that they have been finishing off the Model 3 and getting it on the road. But if they were able to design and prototype Roadster 2.0 and Semi during all this, perhaps somewhere there is an inside group Tesla working on a new Model S.

Since the new Roadster appears to have two battery packs, one on top of the other, and gets 600+ miles range when not racing, we can presume they could do the same thing with the relatively-much-taller Model S. 2x335 is 670 miles of EPA range. A dual battery could be an option.... they could sell a base Model S with just one battery pack, and allow enhanced Model 3's to overlap with that.

 

[MartinAustin]

There wasn't any need to attack me with the first line of your post

I did not attack you deliberately, I apologise for that accidental delivery of my point. I was simply saying that there aren't a lot of people inside Tesla thinking about the track applications, but it isn't hurting sales one bit - which kinda proves the point about how superficial the "trackability" thing is.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

nue

Just putting this out there... the current Model S 75D gets 4% more range than current RWD S75's. (well, "new inventory" S75's)

If the new AWD non-perf Model 3 gets 4% more range than the current LR variant, that would be 322 EPA Combined miles.

That's almost the same as the 335 of the Model S 100D. I wonder if they are going to do anything to defend the range of the flagship, which otherwise, might have only 4% more range than the AWD LR Model 3.

Like...
1) a 110kWh single battery pack for Model S ? (using 18650 or 21700?)
2) an altogether-refreshed Model S with dual battery packs? (as seen in the recent video IMO)

When the AWD Model 3 begins deliveries, it'll have been 18 months since Tesla introduced Ludicrous Plus mode, and 2 years since the P100D w/ Ludicrous mode. There haven't been any serious upgrades to the Model S for going on 2 years. The elephant in the room is that they have been finishing off the Model 3 and getting it on the road. But if they were able to design and prototype Roadster 2.0 and Semi during all this, perhaps somewhere there is an inside group Tesla working on a new Model S.

Since the new Roadster appears to have two battery packs, one on top of the other, and gets 600+ miles range when not racing, we can presume they could do the same thing with the relatively-much-taller Model S. 2x335 is 670 miles of EPA range. A dual battery could be an option.... they could sell a base Model S with just one battery pack, and allow enhanced Model 3's to overlap with that.

The switched reluctance motor in the model 3 is both more energy efficient than the induction motor of the model S and model X AND it is easier to cool and thus is more trackable than the big sedans as well. So that change should yield more range from the same battery for the S & X. Where it seems to perform worse is in peak power. My 3 is fast, but It's not brutally so.

 

[MacRocket]

I've gotta be honest, I tried to be a counter to the FUD over on twitter. It's just too much of a time suck given my day job. I thought moderating was bad...

Yes ggr, some of the FUD is depressing and many who work don’t have much spare time for twitter or Facebook.

I do however feel that the least we working busy people from TMC can do is to go on Twitter every now and again and “like” good posts.
These posts come from a multitude of ordinary TMC folk who are spending a lot of their free time on social media fighting the FUDsters with facts.

If nothing else they deserve our support.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

For S/X refresh, I'd suggest to 3-style motors (but upsized) for S/X non-P models, and the P models perhaps keep the big power inefficient motors (unless they can simply scale up the 3-style motors even more). That way they get a similar range boost from more efficient powertrain, for the non-Ludicrous vehicles, and Ludicrous vehicles either have no real range improvement (but hey, you get Ludicrous) or perhaps they get an improvement but have even bigger 3-style motors.

The giant price increase from non-P to P should easily cover the cost of bespoke motors I think. The price gap itself is Ludicrous.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I did not attack you deliberately, I apologise for that accidental delivery of my point. I was simply saying that there aren't a lot of people inside Tesla thinking about the track applications, but it isn't hurting sales one bit - which kinda proves the point about how superficial the "trackability" thing is.

Thank you for the apology. As an aside, I'm really happy about how this forum is an oasis of politeness in an Internet which is usually a hostile and horrible hellhole. Thanks guys!

 

[AZRI11]

Check out Elon on Twitter. He's having quite the words with a short, who is basically telling him he is a fraud. Reading through the responses to him, there must be a lot of really angry shorts. It's pretty sad really. I don't like reading that crap!

Screw the shorties. Max pain.

 

[RobStark]

I don't know who you think you are arguing with but I do know what I'm talking about. Tesla has not redesigned the cooling system in S/X since 2014. A P100D has the same restrictions as a 2014 launch S.

Tesla Model S P90D At The Nurburgring (Video)

There is no evidence whatsoever that there will be a new "2.0" Model S and it's clear that Elon isn't interested in doing that just for Porsche. The idea that Tesla would design and market a new Model S just for the Mission-E is silly. Porsche is not a real competitor to Tesla until they prove they have enough batteries to sell any EV in volume and everyone knows it. So no, I'm not expecting a "Model S 2.0" just to compete with Mission-E and I expect to be proven right about that next year.

There have been multiple revisions to the battery pack. A series, B series, C series etc as shown on the battery pack serial numbers themselves. That Tesla has made no improvements is silly.

Gen II vehicles are selling at a consistent 100k rate without paid advertisement with near 30% GM. The idea that Tesla will leave that cash on the table is even sillier. That they won't benchmark the competition and make improvements ridiculous .

BTW Sales of sedans for track use is irrelevant. Loss of of high GM PXXXD Ludicrous because of the reputational loss of Tesla not being able to match the performance of a Mission E is significant.