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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Things seem weird to me lately.

While that video Elon tweeted was neat, it was professionally done, and for all intents and purposes is a commercial. Why?
Also is he warning shorts to have a clear conscious? Or is he warning shorts, in an effort to try to alleviate some of the downward pressure on the stock? Based on the past, I tend to believe Elon, and hence that is why I continue to be 'all in' but for some reason have been questioning things more lately.

On a completely different note, I would like to comment on what I feel is a strategic error. I think the model Y, should of come before the 3. I think partly the reason a sedan was chosen was due to geo-centric thinking (California "car" culture). The shift from sedan to small and mid-size SUV's has been happening for over a decade now in Canada. Even when the 3 was announced, most cities in Canada that I lived in were already pushing half SUV's, and at the very least the trend lines were obvious. This has come in the spotlight recently with Ford's announcement to essentially stop making most sedans. A few years back you could not go more than a few pages on this thread without someone mentioning how Gretzky would say 'you have to skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is', and I really feel Tesla did not do that. I mean I will buy a model 3, but if I had the choice, I would take the Y. I also feel most people would make that same choice and hence feel demand would be even greater if it was a mid-size SUV coming out.

Unfortunately I feel the slow ramp is hurting more than just in short term share price. It is diverting resources from within the company to get the semi/Y out quicker. While the other car companies have "cried Wolf" in the past, it seems more and more evident to me that their cries are going to ring true soon enough. Good for the planet, not so good for share price (just so you know I would choose the former every time, but why not both?).

Anyhow that is my 0.02 cents, and since I am Canadian, it gets rounded to zero anyhow.
 
Now that AWD and P are coming, what
And also this is the most brilliant way to (slightly) dampen demand between now and July and then make it explode from then onwards. I can see a lot of deferring folks jump to click "order" as soon as AWD is available. Brilliant management of the 200k car limit anyone?!?

In the good old days of the Model S shorts were constantly saying "if Tesla didn't do A, B or C - demand would have collapsed" ("Demand levers FTW!!). I wonder when we will see the first Seeking Alpha posts about Tesla being in real trouble because they are forced to now sell the AWD version of the Model3...
Why would it dampen demand until July if the AWD order will open in ~ 1wk? Also there are lots of people (like me) who still have to decide between taking the RWD which is available now, vs AWD in late 2018. AWD order opens, but it's only opening to the people ahead in the line 1st, I'm guessing.
 
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Tesla would not be taking dual motor Model 3 orders unless Elon was absolutely convinced they will hit the 5,000 per week manufacturing level. Basically Elon just said that the ramp to 5,000 is confirmed. The market should figure this out pretty quick.

RT
It ain't necessarily so... Nothing in Elon's current tweet says they'll be producing 5k/wk.

It could simply mean that they want to sell the highest-margin versions possible to have improved cash flow. This idea is even more valid if they can't produce in high volume.
 
And also this is the most brilliant way to (slightly) dampen demand between now and July and then make it explode from then onwards. I can see a lot of deferring folks jump to click "order" as soon as AWD is available. Brilliant management of the 200k car limit anyone?!?

In the good old days of the Model S shorts were constantly saying "if Tesla didn't do A, B or C - demand would have collapsed" ("Demand levers FTW!!). I wonder when we will see the first Seeking Alpha posts about Tesla being in real trouble because they are forced to now sell the AWD version of the Model3...

Generally agree with you, but remember they are absolutely production constrained for Model 3 at this point. They will sell any car they make, no matter what setup. So only the production changes the pace at which they sell cars and reach the 200k limit. The only ways to delay that would be:
  • Slow production (maybe be a bit more relaxed with shutdowns) - very unlikely because of cash flow
  • Deliver cars outside of the US (happening, deliveries to Canada are starting)
  • Build but don´t deliver (question is where and it would be a logistical/delivery nightmare later on)
As far as I remember our numbers expert @Troy said a while ago they won´t be able to time the 200,000 limit to the end of Q2 but will go through it earlier. Maybe you can give us an update ;)?!

Edit: It must be the beginning of Q3 instead of end of Q2 to reach 200,000 - otherwise they´d waste one quarter worth of tax credits.
 
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It ain't necessarily so... Nothing in Elon's current tweet says they'll be producing 5k/wk.

It could simply mean that they want to sell the highest-margin versions possible to have improved cash flow. This idea is even more valid if they can't produce in high volume.
This particular Elon tweet doesn't directly say 5k/wk. But Tesla's official Q1 update letter to investors does:

"After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack."​

Are you suggesting that 9 days after sending that letter, somehow Tesla has decided to scrap that plan, without telling investors, risking all kinds of legal issue?
 
Production in Q3 may be primarily top ASP AWD and/or P Model 3s because of all the people waiting for those configs.
Combine that with ramping to sustained 5K/week, and Q3 will be ‘interesting’ financially.
This may push some people to pull the trigger on the RWD model in Q2, otherwise they could get bumped off in build priority in Q3. I'm thinking specially those people (including me) who are eligible to configure the RWD model now, but still has "Late 2018" availability date for AWD. When Tesla starts building AWD, the wait time (from configure to VIN) on RWD may get longer.

Edit:

looks like AWD backlog will be huge and take a while to clear.
upload_2018-5-11_14-8-57.png
 

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It ain't necessarily so... Nothing in Elon's current tweet says they'll be producing 5k/wk.

From the Q1 Investor letter:

After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack.

If they start delivering the dual motor model 3 in July, per the above guidance they will also be producing 5,000 cars per week.

RT

Cool, Waiting4M3 beat me to it ;)
 
Generally agree with you, but remember they are absolutely production constrained for Model 3 at this point. They will sell any car they make, no matter what setup. So only the production changes the pace at which they sell cars and reach the 200k limit. The only ways to delay that would be:
  • Slow production (maybe be a bit more relaxed with shutdowns) - very unlikely because of cash flow
  • Deliver cars outside of the US (happening, deliveries to Canada are starting)
  • Build but don´t deliver (question is where and it would be a logistical/delivery nightmare later on)
As far as I remember our numbers expert @Troy said a while ago they won´t be able to time the 200,000 limit to the end of Q2 but will go through it earlier. Maybe you can give us an update ;)?!

I fully admit that the F9 launch had me all happy and enthusiastic - so my language got sloppy. Of course, demand is not the issue - the question is the US-based deliveries.

Secondly, how could I ever contradict @Troy when we are talking numbers?

So my naive thinking was a mix of a) easing the (very short-term) pressure on US orders/deliveries without AWD (by announcing AWD 1 week "early" - assuming we have the usual 5-6 week delivery time-frame), b) thus providing more volume for the Canadian market and c) managing the otherwise angry crowd of folks that would say something like "if I had only known AWD was this close"... So, I'm all for 2) from your list without annoying too many US-based folks that they didn't get their vehicle before Canada.
 
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While that video Elon tweeted was neat, it was professionally done, and for all intents and purposes is a commercial. Why?
Also is he warning shorts to have a clear conscious? Or is he warning shorts, in an effort to try to alleviate some of the downward pressure on the stock? Based on the past, I tend to believe Elon, and hence that is why I continue to be 'all in' but for some reason have been questioning things more lately.

I think a large part of it was building team spirit within Tesla and attracting new employees - this video showed much more people working at Tesla than previous videos.
 
This particular Elon tweet doesn't directly say 5k/wk. But Tesla's official Q1 update letter to investors does:

"After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack."​

Are you suggesting that 9 days after sending that letter, somehow Tesla has decided to scrap that plan, without telling investors, risking all kinds of legal issue?
Apparently, I am.

It would be different if Elon started his tweet with: "Since we'll be making 5k/week in July...", but he didn't. He simply said they'd be offering the higher-cost versions.

What investors would be motivated to complain about a change to increase the margin/car? (Shorts, maybe)

We'll know in July if the 5k number is achieved
 
On a completely different note, I would like to comment on what I feel is a strategic error. I think the model Y, should of come before the 3. I think partly the reason a sedan was chosen was due to geo-centric thinking (California "car" culture). The shift from sedan to small and mid-size SUV's has been happening for over a decade now in Canada.

100% disagree. The shift to CUV/SUV has been happening all over the industrialized world including California. The most popular vehicles outside full sized pickups in North America are compact CUVs. Honda CRV,Toyota RAV and Nissan Rogue.

Making a 220 mile CUV would be a lot more than $35k. Worse aerodynamics, heavier weight requiring more kWh.

Elon really wanted to hit the $35k "long range EV for the masses" the CUV with 220 miles of range would be at least $38k and probably north of $40k.

If Tesla had made the Model Y first it would not have been able to deliver more vehicles than they have delivered Model 3s so far. Not a strategic mistake.
 
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