General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Skryll]

Yes. As long as Teslas in AP keep running into stationary objects, the bad press will continue.

Fix the friggin' problem!

How about teslas without autopilot running into stationary things?

Or other car brands for that matter.

Isnt the percentage of those higher and therefore the more attractive goal?

Can't 100% foolproof anything without taking away benefits from 99% of the people

 

[DragonWatch]

Fear sells and fear commits us to wars Allowing a car to drive itself scares the poo out of even some us from time to time that are beta testing the program. But the guy next to us driving his/her fossil fuel car is even more scared that AP might swerve into them.

That fear was communicated to me by my part-time neighbor, an active duty air force colonel, when he told me their focus was "how to take back control of an autonomous car and run the other guy off the road." If your eyes cross and then focus on the missing hair on the back of your head, well I am with you

Solar power was attacked and defeated twice before in our history, if I am not mistaken. It was defeated by fossil fuel and few noticed.

Tesla is attacking full frontal/Monte (sp) the fossil fuel industry and all that it touches. At every turn Tesla has been attacked by its enemies, and they are enemies. The enemy has attacked Tesla's business model, Tesla's Model S initial car fires, Tesla's cash burn, Tesla's Model X Falcon wings, and some even hated the look of the Model X (its a car for god sake) ~ just to name a few too many.

Tesla has successfully combined both Solar and Cars into one business with fierce competition to change the world; not just for the hell of it.

Tesla put into motion real competition, called Autopilot. Autopilot for those of us with four tires on the ground are just learning to walk in reality.

Bottom line Tesla is fighting the good fight on at least three major fronts Solar/EVs against fossil fuel. Then add to the fuel (get it) autopilot and we have the current FUD environment.

Unfortunately, none of us know for sure on the current autopilot accused issues what is actually happening (pro or con). Again fear sells ~ click bate. None of us with Tesla autopilot will know if there is any real noticeable changes until the next version is released, and to the best of my knowledge, it has not yet come out. Will we even notice a difference?

FWIW ~ GM during my lifetime has never led the charge on anything but ditzing (sp) GM employees. Designing a cool sports car is not new technology.

When someone accuses autopilot and admits to texting/using a phone while driving ~ you need to question "head-space and timing." That was military jargon in my day ~ in other words not real bright.

If you think for a minute that Tesla SP is going to $1,567.96 in a New York minute, then you have not been to Alabama. Do not worry, when I was stationed in Oklahoma, they called it the armpit of the US. Also when I went through basic at Fort Ord back in 1969, you should hear what they said about California and Florida. And, I was born and raised at that point in California.

Without all the insider knowledge, I still say look at the fundamentals ~ Tesla is leading the charge and there will always be jealous ankle bitters.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

From what I read (at Electrek), it sounded like the 28k number was based on 10k/week production rate, which would be some time next year. There may be some lower material and labor costs per vehicle at the higher production rate which might account for that number. So both Munro and this mystery company might be in the ballpark, just at different points along the curve (very near start of production for Munro, and when production is totally sorted out at 10k/week for the mystery report).

 

[Waiting4M3]

From what I read (at Electrek), it sounded like the 28k number was based on 10k/week production rate, which would be some time next year. There may be some lower material and labor costs per vehicle at the higher production rate which might account for that number. So both Munro and this mystery company might be in the ballpark, just at different points along the curve (very near start of production for Munro, and when production is totally sorted out at 10k/week for the mystery report).

I can't imagine that the difference between 5k/wk vs 10k/wk production volume can produce a material cost difference as dramatic as $38k vs $28k. Also I think both of these estimates are material only, not including labor, or did I misread?

 

[mrdoubleb]

I can't imagine that the difference between 5k/wk vs 10k/wk production volume can produce a material cost difference as dramatic as $38k vs $28k. Also I think both of these estimates are material only, not including labor, or did I misread?

The 28k estimate included 18k material costs and 10k labor "based on similar sized cars in the industry".

 

[Menifeer]

How about teslas without autopilot running into stationary things?

Or other car brands for that matter.

Isnt the percentage of those higher and therefore the more attractive goal?

Can't 100% foolproof anything without taking away benefits from 99% of the people

Do you believe that AP accidents will continue to attract headlines that work against the Tesla story? I do.

The fact that "it's the driver's fault" won't stop the stories. Fixing the software so that AP prevents the car from driving into stationary objects is the solution.

 

[Yuri_G]

Do you believe that AP accidents will continue to attract headlines that work against the Tesla story? I do.

The fact that "it's the driver's fault" won't stop the stories. Fixing the software so that AP prevents the car from driving into stationary objects is the solution.

If it was that easy, wouldn't it be done by now?

I'd guess avoiding false positives is one of the most difficult aspects of autonomous driving and if autopilot could stop for 100% of obstructions in the road it would have been implemented a long time ago.

 

[dandurston]

Elon retweeted that German M3 cost analysis saying the M3 will cost $28g at full production (10K). Then Fred Lambert (Electrek) tweeted asking him if he agrees costs will be that, and Elon said "definitely".

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[bambam4171]

Elon retweeted that German M3 cost analysis saying the M3 will cost $28g at full production (10K). Then Fred Lambert (Electrek) tweeted asking him if he agrees costs will be that, and Elon said "definitely".

Elon Musk on Twitter

Of course no short will believe this but geeeez is this big!

 

[avoigt]

Great analysis on Reddit from the user _Tesla_. Likely someone who is active here as well?

"Both Elon and the Germans are right, because in the final cost there's also these items included:

• factory equipment depreciation costs, which is a fancy word for the huge one-time cost of 500+ robots installed in big buildings, distributed amongst many years. I don't think the Germans were able to (or even wanted to) estimate this factor, as it depends exactly on how Tesla financed the equipment and the depreciation schedule they are on.
• extra costs of a 600% expansion not present in factory equipment: a much larger overall organization supporting 600,000 cars/year instead of 100,000 cars/year
• ongoing R&D costs, distributed amongst a smaller number of cars
• misc other costs related to the expansion: interest rates on loans, etc.

Here's a quick estimate of the various other costs that the $50K Model 3 includes:

component per car cost profit margin on $50K variant profit margin on $35K variant
raw materials $18,000
manufacturing (mostly labor) $10,000
depreciation+other at 2K/week $10,000
depreciation+other at 5K/week $4,000
depreciation+other at 10K/week $2,000
total cost at 2K/week $40,000 $10,000 -$5,000
total cost at 5K/week $32,000 $18,000 $3,000
total cost at 10K/week $30,000 $20,000 $5,000


As you can see it the fixed costs of manufacturing distribute much better amongst a higher rate 10K/week output than amongst cars of the current 2-3K/week manufacturing rate.

Note: the variable costs are estimates but not completely out of thin air, Tesla's CFO mentioned it during the last teleconference that they expect them to fall below $2,000/car at a 10K/week rate - so $2,000 is what I used for a baseline to extrapolate the costs and margins at the various manufacturing rates.

At 10K/week they could probably make the standard battery $35,000 version profitably - but right now they'd be losing $5,000 per car on it.

So Tesla's best strategy is to cherry-pick customers from the $20 billion dollars worth of pre-order queue and to first ship to those who buy higher value variants, because that makes the fixed costs distribute in a more favourable fashion.

But one thing is pretty clear from this German tear-down: the Model 3 manufactured at the economies of scale of other carmakers is a goldmine, and the Model 3 will probably be wildly profitable at a 10K cars/week manufacturing rate."

Model 3 teardown in Germany finds that Tesla's cost of materials is $18k, cost of production $10k (and that's w/ a $50k+ early production Model 3) • r/teslamotors

 

[Reciprocity]

Munro, a far more respected name in the automobile sector, came to the result that the parts of the model 3 alone are around 38.000$. Thats a huge ass difference, one of them is extremely wrong, and i doubt that its Munro, but rather the unknown company...

Second, the article says that they can now reap a huge proft because the model 3 can be sold for 100-130k $ on the "grey market". Thats absolute bull, you can buy one on ebay immediately for 50-54k, most model 3s offered on ebay dont even get a bid. Makes you question the quality of the article.

Elon verified on Twitter, munro is wrong apparently.

 

[bambam4171]

Elon verified on Twitter, munro is wrong apparently.

Not too sure. The german magazine estimated the cost at 10k/week production. Munro did no such thing. As Avoigt lists above this is a critical difference.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Not too sure. The german magazine estimated the cost at 10k/week production. Munro did no such thing. As Avoigt lists above this is a critical difference.

If Munro was quoting a price without clarifying at what volume, that seems like an incomplete analysis. Either way, it's not looking great for him.

 

[Dennisj00]

Munro, a far more respected name in the automobile sector, came to the result that the parts of the model 3 alone are around 38.000$. Thats a huge ass difference, one of them is extremely wrong, and i doubt that its Munro, but rather the unknown company...

Second, the article says that they can now reap a huge proft because the model 3 can be sold for 100-130k $ on the "grey market". Thats absolute bull, you can buy one on ebay immediately for 50-54k, most model 3s offered on ebay dont even get a bid. Makes you question the quality of the article.

Munro’s analysis was pretty much, “They didn’t do it the way I would have 20 years ago so it must be wrong and very expensive!”

 

[Teslie]

If Tesla were able to produce cars for 28,000 $ why do they only have 25% margin on their 100,000 $ cars (equates 80,000$ cost)...?

 

[kbM3]

At 10K/week they could probably make the standard battery $35,000 version profitably - but right now they'd be losing $5,000 per car on it.

So Tesla's best strategy is to cherry-pick customers from the $20 billion dollars worth of pre-order queue and to first ship to those who buy higher value variants, because that makes the fixed costs distribute in a more favourable fashion.

But one thing is pretty clear from this German tear-down: the Model 3 manufactured at the economies of scale of other carmakers is a goldmine, and the Model 3 will probably be wildly profitable at a 10K cars/week manufacturing rate."

Model 3 teardown in Germany finds that Tesla's cost of materials is $18k, cost of production $10k (and that's w/ a $50k+ early production Model 3) • r/teslamotors

Why would they be losing $5k? Since the tear down was on the LR model with premium package, presumably the SR would be cheaper yet.

 

[kbM3]

If Tesla were able to produce cars for 28,000 $ why do they only have 25% margin on their 100,000 $ cars (equates 80,000$ cost)...?

As longs have been trying to tell you all along:
1) Higher volume.
2) Smaller vehicle
3) No instrument panel.
4) Gigafactory.
5) More Advanced chemistry.
6) and more.

In summary, when you set one of the brightest CEOs on the planet with some of the top hi-tech talent in the world against the traditional auto/heavy manufacturing industry, you get...

A crocodile let loose amongst a lot of baby chicks.

 

[MP3Mike]

If Tesla were able to produce cars for 28,000 $ why do they only have 25% margin on their 100,000 $ cars (equates 80,000$ cost)...?

Because the Model S wasn't designed to be easily manufacturable in large quantities like the Model 3 was. (They were planning to top out at ~20k/year, but demand was way higher than they expected.)

 

[DragonWatch]

Okay, get your mind out of the gutter This pic may be of semi interest to you

Not a recommendation for consumption or stock investment, just a pic of things to come semi around the corner

 

[Curt Renz]