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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Porsche has to stop selling cars in Europe because of WLTP. Well I'm sure Tesla will be lending them a hand and sell their customers some really, really fast cars. Only thing is: Maybe the customers never come back ;)
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtscha...stellt-verkauf-von-neuwagen-ein-15617978.html

Gerne möchten wir Ihnen dennoch die Möglichkeit geben, das Modell weiterhin im Car Configurator zu betrachten.

We would like to give you the opportunity to keep watching the model in the car configurator.

That is all they can give you now. Oh gosh you can't make this *sugar* up. For the first time in a longer period I'm really rolling on the floor with laughter
 
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Once production scale is achieved, the cost of Model 3's parts should be comparable to Toyota Camry. Maybe a little more. It adds a motor and a battery pack, but also removes engine, transmission, starter, fuel tank, and many related parts. Most long term Tesla investors already knew this.

For the general public, the cost confirmation from German teardown report should be major news. It confirms several things:

1. Tesla can produce a mass market EV with high performance and good profit margin.
2. Model 3 doesn't use much Cobalt. (and will soon drop to zero)
3. The transition from ICE to EV will happen at a fast pace. Are legacy carmakers ready?

There are other things that cost more than a Camry. Bigger screen, sensors, CPU’s, better suspension, tires, wheels...
 
How dangerous is this? Audi recalls 1.2 million cars a second time due to fire risk. The first software upgrade didn’t work:

Double Down on Recall of 1.2 Million Audi Vehicles over Coolant Pump Fire Risk - Newsome | Melton

“Debris from the cooling system can allegedly block the pump, which may then erupt into a fire. Volkswagen, who owns Audi, believed that a software update could fix the problem. But fires continued happening even with the new software, which has prompted a second recall of 1.2 million vehicles.”

What is even worse for Audi, but good for dealers is that this recall takes three trips to the dealer. Once for the software update that didn't work, then to replace the coolant pump, and then finally this fall to replace the coolant pump again with a new design... Wow! Talk about not getting your engineering done correctly the first time.
 
A question I asked also - I believe a Q is added to the stock symbol if a company goes bankrupt and delisted from the stock market. This is a favourite short hand (no pun intended) of the shorts on Twitter.
this is correct (other than the spelling of favorite)

Mod: correcting a foreign person's spelling is unacceptable behaviour in this forum, especially when his spelling is correct in the other 95% non-USA part of the world. --ggr.
 
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Perception is an issue.

Tesla Autopilot: Model S That Hit 5 Cars Started Itself, Owner Says
Note that autopilot was actually not involved in the linked article.

I didn’t say it wasn’t an issue (it clearly is for those who buy into the media, don’t do due diligence, and all the others I already listed).

I said it was a non-issue in the context of Tesla because the brand is too strong, the product is too good, there are enough people who aren’t fooled by the media etc...

Case in point, had the brother of a good friend message me yesterday. We aren’t close, I’ve only met him a few times, we have no relationship and we’ve never talked via phone, text or message before so this message he sent me was out of the blue and first ever in us knowing of each other for over 20 years.

He currently lives in Oklahoma and messaged to rib me as he’d just heard about the Tesla that hit the cop car. His main take away from it besides the irony was too bad Tesla has to sell cars to dumb people. So he wasn’t fooled.

FYI, OK has very little Tesla presence, he is a tried and true old school performance/track car guy and he wants a Tesla but has never had a chance to even sit in one and only seen a couple in the flesh.

It’s a non-issue.
 

Good info ~ thanks.

From a military (army) point of view, where quick turnover is the norm from career enhancing to ensuring everyone gets a chance to perform in the required card punching jobs. During Vietnam era you were in and out within a year or promoted upwards. In the mid to late seventies company grade officers (Lt to Cpt) were flying out the door primarily due to extremely low pay. My officer year group had several hundred additional soldiers to fill the gap. Because I was like Mikey (sp) in the Life cereal commercial back in the sixties, I think, my battalion commander figured “give to Bruce, he’ll eat it.” First, we did not have any captains, and majors were few and far between. Then Carter approved a 14% pay raise and turnover settled down. But, before things settled down, I was changing jobs within months, with ever increasing responsibility and limited experience. As a newly promoted, within weeks, First Lieutenant, I was slammed into a battalion S-3 Operations job, a majors position, and would have held it longer had the Charlie battery commander not been relieved for hitting one of his officers. The army was in piss poor shape trying to recover from the Vietnam war era and transition from a draft force into an all volunteer army. As I was getting close to my retirement in the nineties, transfers were pushed to four years. That began to push my limits of quickly moving forward or my attention span:)

This certainly is by far not Tesla’s problem ~ period. But turnover is to be expected, especially in a high pressure (pressure cooker) environment. Early on there were not the experts available there are today for Tesla, and the company has/is not large enough to move people latterly like the military. Moving one colonel from a job in California to Germany, as an example in the military, is costly by moving household goods, but causes no management turmoil. Tesla is rapidly growing, technically advancing beyond anyone else, and manufacturing cars unlike any before in my lifetime. So, when managers in Tesla change out, it is hard for the common humans to grasp the fundamentals. While it is easier to attract employees today because of its successes; finding highly qualified people with the right experience is a very narrow pool to select from, since Tesla is on the sharp edge of technology.

Coming from BMW with eighteen years experience would have been called “homesteading” or never leaving a post like Fort Lewis, yet always being promoted. In this case not a bad thing. But highlights the fact that finding top quality people to fill the demand at Tesla a difficult task at best. I also think Tesla will remain a pressure cooker for years to come until things settle down, I expect that fundamentally not to happen while I am alive and I am aiming for at least another thirty years.

Yes, yes, I know many wish I would “fade away like most good soldiers,” but the GrandPups spank me one more to grow on:) Thank god there are only two of them, and they are only six and eight:)

Oh, here is a thought for you about management. How come Civilian Joe, with no military background, cannot cross pollinate into the army/military as a colonel or general; but a colonel or general can become a Vice President of a major corporation and prevent a highly qualified civilian, even with prior military experience from becoming a Vice President? Just a though.

You need to understand the fundamentals too, not just look for them.
 
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Why is it so important for you that Tesla does not take this risk seriously?

Many have stated that this issue of general perception will create a big issue for Tesla, you seem to be the only one saying that is should be ignored. When has ignoring a growing problem ever led to something good?

Why do you assume Tesla isn’t taking it seriously?

I don’t believe the perception will create a big issue for Tesla. It may seem big to those who are fooled et al... but it’s not for those who aren’t. I’m of the opinion (which I already explained) that there is a large enough population of the latter, that the brand is already too strong, that the snowball is already rolling down the mountain side, that all of *this* ridiculousness going on in the media doesn’t matter - the mission will succeed. And now the media has Elon’s attention. Bad for them because he will be just as relentless and has just as many on his side.

I said nothing about ignoring anything and clearly Tesla/Elon aren’t ignoring anything.
 
He currently lives in Oklahoma and messaged to rib me as he’d just heard about the Tesla that hit the cop car. His main take away from it besides the irony was too bad Tesla has to sell cars to dumb people. So he wasn’t fooled.
Right, but there are a lot of people who will be fooled. I'd bet everyone on this forum has run into people completely misinformed about Tesla, i.e. "fooled". As negative headlines keep increasing a larger number of people will be misled. Tesla is in a race to engineer a fix for human stupidity before maximum negativity takes hold.
 
There are other things that cost more than a Camry. Bigger screen, sensors, CPU’s, better suspension, tires, wheels...
True. Most parts don't cost much at scale. The large "iPad" probably cost around $250, but it also eliminated a radio and bunch of buttons. The AI computer is a significant cost, Tesla is designing a new one with much better performance and much less cost.
 
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Right, but there are a lot of people who will be fooled. I'd bet everyone on this forum has run into people completely misinformed about Tesla, i.e. "fooled". As negative headlines keep increasing a larger number of people will be misled. Tesla is in a race to engineer a fix for human stupidity before maximum negativity takes hold.
Yep, most of my office loves to tell me how the just "read" another horrific story about Tesla.....it got old fast, but none of them keep up with the company on a daily basis like I do, so after awhile I just smile and go on with my day. Can't wait to get my Model 3 and let them see.
 
Right, but there are a lot of people who will be fooled. I'd bet everyone on this forum has run into people completely misinformed about Tesla, i.e. "fooled". As negative headlines keep increasing a larger number of people will be misled. Tesla is in a race to engineer a fix for human stupidity before maximum negativity takes hold.
I suspect that the 20% of people who will buy EV are likely much better informed about AP, then those who are completely not interested in Tesla/EV.
 
I didn’t say it wasn’t an issue (it clearly is for those who buy into the media, don’t do due diligence, and all the others I already listed).

I said it was a non-issue in the context of Tesla because the brand is too strong, the product is too good, there are enough people who aren’t fooled by the media etc...

Case in point, had the brother of a good friend message me yesterday. We aren’t close, I’ve only met him a few times, we have no relationship and we’ve never talked via phone, text or message before so this message he sent me was out of the blue and first ever in us knowing of each other for over 20 years.

He currently lives in Oklahoma and messaged to rib me as he’d just heard about the Tesla that hit the cop car. His main take away from it besides the irony was too bad Tesla has to sell cars to dumb people. So he wasn’t fooled.

FYI, OK has very little Tesla presence, he is a tried and true old school performance/track car guy and he wants a Tesla but has never had a chance to even sit in one and only seen a couple in the flesh.

It’s a non-issue.

You got 2 data points saying its no issue and a lot of data points saying it is a huge issue.
 
InsideEVs estimates 6,250 Model 3s in the US in May, plus a couplefew hundred in Canadia.

[Edit: these are just estimates at this point, of course, but if accurate-ish, that's a 61% jump April-to-May in the US, or more like 70% jump if you include Canada. And it's enough to be #1 by a > 2:1 margin over #2.
"While we don’t have estimates for Canadian Model 3 sales, we can confidently say that those units upped the total monthly ante by hundreds, if not more."
 
What is even worse for Audi, but good for dealers is that this recall takes three trips to the dealer. Once for the software update that didn't work, then to replace the coolant pump, and then finally this fall to replace the coolant pump again with a new design... Wow! Talk about not getting your engineering done correctly the first time.
The good software designers were busy working on the cheat devices.
 
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