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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I am a little concerned that they supposedly are building one of the GA lines in a giant tent outside. Even assuming it's a walled in, temperature controlled, etc environment ... I hope it gets a real home before I place my order.

Also, is this the first mention we have of GA4? I think they talked about GA3 most recently and that it only took two weeks to get installed...

No reason to be concerned. Its improvement and that is what counts.

Part of the line(s) are at almost 5k/w already all parts above 3500/w. Those parts still need adjustments. Its a all hands on deck call for those parts. Nothing unusual.

They have two full weeks to make it happen or if you say they want to be the last week on a steady state with 5k/w its just one week left which is of course tight. We don't know the complexity.

I like the call for workers/managers on the line to give thoughts what can be done better. There is knowbody who knows the issues better than the people who work there one shift after the other. This guys have often the best ideas. I talk from experience: As a consultant they have been the first ones I talked to to get ideas for improvement.

Also his letter sound confident. If he would know about severe issues that cannot be fixed his tone would be very different. He sounds like they are on the way to make it.

In any case my view is that it does not matter if they have last week of June 5k/w or 1 or 2 weeks later. The only part that counts is that they achieve it very soon and with that likely CFP and Profitability.

I would not be surprised once he announce 5k/w ready state he announce too that this was a first week of CFP and Profit.

We can imagine the market reaction on that message.
 
Shorts are going to be all over this. Short term I think this is bad. It’s likely that the underbelly was punctured without the driver knowing, but if there is some sort of wiring that’s off, then Tesla will need to address it. I hope they get to the bottom of this soon, within the next 3-5 days so we can swiftly get over this news. Otherwise shorters and the media will cream them. How bad will this be taken out of context?
Apparently the fire was extinguished in a couple of minutes by the fire department. That probably means the firewalls in the battery worked properly.
 
I am a little concerned that they supposedly are building one of the GA lines in a giant tent outside. Even assuming it's a walled in, temperature controlled, etc environment ... I hope it gets a real home before I place my order.

Also, is this the first mention we have of GA4? I think they talked about GA3 most recently and that it only took two weeks to get installed...
I believe that parts for the line are in that tent.
 
Shorts are going to be all over this. Short term I think this is bad. It’s likely that the underbelly was punctured without the driver knowing, but if there is some sort of wiring that’s off, then Tesla will need to address it. I hope they get to the bottom of this soon, within the next 3-5 days so we can swiftly get over this news. Otherwise shorters and the media will cream them. How bad will this be taken out of context?
If NTSB becomes involved then media will play this up big time.
 
Shorts are going to be all over this. Short term I think this is bad. It’s likely that the underbelly was punctured without the driver knowing, but if there is some sort of wiring that’s off, then Tesla will need to address it. I hope they get to the bottom of this soon, within the next 3-5 days so we can swiftly get over this news. Otherwise shorters and the media will cream them. How bad will this be taken out of context?

Allow me to have a slightly different opinion on that one.

The obvious:

A gas car burning likely will kill you or at least you are severely injured. A Tesla car burning is actually not that bad because given the way they designed it you can leave the car still not injured if you are conscience and not trapped. If you can escape the car you are safe. True for gas and EV but in an EV flames will not that fast enter the driver cabin.

The market:

Of course Fudsters will try to spin a negative story but their traction on weak longs and the market as such is these days smaller given the overall more positive sentiment about Tesla achieving 5k/w with a high likelihood.
 
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While I agree with the general sentiment of your argument here I do have a small bone to pick. Tesla does have some unique tech, at least in car industry. And it doesn't seem like others can catch up in a couple of years.

Andrew Ng said if you're a retailer, adding a website doesn't make you a e-commerce company. The real time usage data collection, data oriented decision making and fast iteration make you an e-commerce company. Similarly, a couple of neurual network in your product does not make you an AI company, it takes much more than that.

Although we saw in the last decade large retailers taking big strides towards user usage data collection, analytics and decision making, same can not be said about the car industry at all. Tesla is the only one with a fleet of fully connected cars with onboard diagnosis system. They are the only one that has an IoT robotic car fleet. We have already seen a tiny bit of that in the works as model 3 UI evolve over time. And even when Tesla's operations leave a lot to be desired, this network allows them to constantly improve.

agreed and also agreed with most of reciprocity
the batteries and what’s behind them are an adv now, but others can do in time. (5-7 years??) possibly some can catch up more quickly...
CATL just ipos at 50bb valuation, what’s their production capacity?
another thing, how can these other car companies (gm, VW, etc) claim they’re going to be competitive or best in cost per KW/h when they have no production facility? if they buy from a CATL or panasonic or Lg how can they achieve that? they are full of it too, no?

the alien dreadnaught has potential be a an adv..remains to be seen as of yet obviously. i wouldn’t bet against that not being successful.

it’s been quiet on the solar/buffalo front. it’d be surprising if something came out of the solar front, which wasn’t easily copied by competitors.

and anyone can collect tons of data, but doing something with it is the art.

tesla AI/AP maybe best,

the endless amount of data collection, categorization, and ability to respond, is best.
no other car company has that, and that has nothing to do with being EV. we’ll see how well they can do it, but they well eventually.

lutz is a sock puppet. he’s been irrelevant for decades. if i didn’t know any better i would kinda feel sorry for him when i watch him talk on cnbc
 
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Perhaps AP is interpreting this wrong?

BEIJING (AP) — China fired back Saturday in a spiraling trade dispute with President Donald Trump by raising import duties on a $34 billion list of American goods including soybeans, electric cars and whiskey.

China hikes tariffs on US soybeans, electric cars, fish
This will hurt if not resolved. No Shanghai plant and double tariffs. Perhaps we are all discounting this from being a long term issue, but even medium term it could take a quarter to resolve. Hopefully resolved very quickly, but some in trumps inner circle think we have nothing to lose and everything to win.

I think there is much to gain with improved trade and legal agreements and maybe high stakes poker is the only way to get it done. I thought most of this was covered by TPP, but maybe a better deal is possible.

Interested in others assessment of the risk.
 
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This will hurt if not resolved. No Shanghai plant and double tariffs. Perhaps we are all discounting this from being a long term issue, but even medium term it could take a quarter to resolve. Hopefully resolved very quickly, but some in trumps inner circle think we have nothing to lose and everything to win.

I think there is much to gain with improved trade and legal agreements and maybe high stakes poker is the only way to get it done. I thought most of this was covered by TPP, but maybe a better deal is possible.

Interested in others assessment of the risk.
the shanghai plant is off the table now???
i didn’t read that anywhere
 
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The bigger problem with this f!re is that a Hollywood actress is involved.

Mary McCormack
mary-mccormack.jpg
 
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My take is that President Trump is approaching foreign policy like a businessman, not a politician. He is used to high stakes negotiations. Bluff, call, raise, threat, praise, etc. I think this will all play out in the positive...eventually. slight dip in stock price next week ($10-15) then back up.

The real news will be the Q2 and Q3 financials. Just my opinion which is worth less that $.02! LOL!

Dan
 
This will hurt if not resolved. No Shanghai plant and double tariffs. Perhaps we are all discounting this from being a long term issue, but even medium term it could take a quarter to resolve. Hopefully resolved very quickly, but some in trumps inner circle think we have nothing to lose and everything to win.

I think there is much to gain with improved trade and legal agreements and maybe high stakes poker is the only way to get it done. I thought most of this was covered by TPP, but maybe a better deal is possible.

Interested in others assessment of the risk.

I think this will only accelerate the Shanghai GF with greater support from China and Tencent. Certainly they don't see Tesla in the same lens as they see Washington DC.

As far as the soybeans? If I were king for a day in any other country on earth I would put a very 'healthy' (pun intended) tariff on Monstanto-laden US soybeans..........and Monstanto-laden US corn.........and Monstanto-laden US wheat....etc. That is a free pass to a win-win. A healthier population and a healthier workforce while promoting local agriculture ( am well aware that China also uses pesticides and herbicides in their ag production - I have seen it in my travels, but the world is waking up to this issue as well).
 
the shanghai plant is off the table now???
i didn’t read that anywhere
Retaliation for Trump tariffs. They are doubling tariffs on electric cars, which were going to be cut. The plant is long term, but ownership was part of the agreement with trade and intellectual property.
Short term Tesla already cut prices in anticipation of the tariff cuts, now they have to eat that are raise prices.

China hikes tariffs on US soybeans, electric cars, fish
 
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I think this will only accelerate the Shanghai GF with greater support from China and Tencent. Certainly they don't see Tesla in the same lens as they see Washington DC.

As far as the soybeans? If I were king for a day in any other country on earth I would put a very 'healthy' (pun intended) tariff on Monstanto-laden US soybeans..........and Monstanto-laden US corn.........and Monstanto-laden US wheat....etc. That is a free pass to a win-win. A healthier population and a healthier workforce while promoting local agriculture ( am well aware that China also uses pesticides and herbicides in their ag production - I have seen it in my travels, but the world is waking up to this issue as well).
And ag states have about 5% of the population and 50% of the senate. If China could target ag and rural alone, I think they’d go that route. It puts the most direct pressure on trump.
California has little to no clout with the administration.
 
As far as the soybeans? If I were king for a day in any other country on earth I would put a very 'healthy' (pun intended) tariff on Monstanto-laden US soybeans..........and Monstanto-laden US corn.........and Monstanto-laden US wheat....etc. That is a free pass to a win-win. A healthier population and a healthier workforce while promoting local agriculture ( am well aware that China also uses pesticides and herbicides in their ag production - I have seen it in my travels, but the world is waking up to this issue as well).

US AG production will be replaced with Monstanto-laden Brazilian soybeans Mondanto-laden Australian wheat etc

China can't afford to shop at Whole Foods.
 
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