General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Hm, an article about a 'Tesla fire' (no injuries and extinguished in minutes), and at the end they casually mention there was also another 'vehicle fire' nearby. Apparently the details and manufacturer are only important if it's Tesla.

Tesla Fire Closes Santa Monica Blvd. - WEHOville

 

[avoigt]

Hm, an article about a 'Tesla fire' (no injuries and extinguished in minutes), and at the end they casually mention there was also another 'vehicle fire' nearby. Apparently the details and manufacturer are only important if it's Tesla.

Tesla Fire Closes Santa Monica Blvd. - WEHOville

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Good. Boring fire. Much better than fireballs. The more boring the vent, earlier media will give up on covering it...

 

[Intl Professor]

I have Like'd your post for the opportunity it gives me to expand on my reasoning.

First, in Numerical Weather Prediction as it is formally called, one waits for each forecast to elapse after which its accuracy is objectively measured. Thus, everyone using Numerical Weather Prediction knows exactly how accurately it has historically performed. Until stock price prediction based on technical analysis does that, it is not even in the realm of science and cannot and should not be compared to weather forecasting.

Secondly, yes, stock prices are heavily influenced by psychological factors (such as greed and fear), but the underlying nature of what causes stock prices to move is in itself irrelevant when considering the predictive strength of the technical analysis. Except maybe that the predictive strength of psychology based sciences in general is rather weak.

Thirdly, do not mix up the predictive strength of stock price prediction with analysts that may influence the stock price. For the sake of argument, let's assume that it is universally true for any stock that its price will increase by 1% the moment its quarterly results are published. In anticipation of this, the demand for the stock will go up prior to this event exactly to the point where the effect would be canceled. This was a (hypothetical) example of a mechanism illustrating how technical stock price prediction cannot work. This is completely different from someone influential publishing a technical analysis, predicting for example that the stock price of e.g. TSLA will go up tomorrow. While it is correct that this can in fact cause demand for the stock to the point where the prediction becomes self-fulfilling, this has nothing to do with the technical analysis itself. Were such a published analysis to cause a stock price movement to happen, it would merely be the effect of the market placing faith in the assertion, regardless of its actual reliability (established by committing to it, but only publishing it after the fact). Actively influencing the market by publishing a technical analysis is different and more similar to a holder of a short position publicly predicting a stock price reduction due to e.g. executive turnover.

EDIT: The above 1% example should ideally be based on some analysis only of the historic stock price (e.g. 'candles' 'Bollinger bands' etc), but that changes nothing in the reasoning.

I wish I had a brilliant button. Keep up posting on any subject.

 

[NicoV]

Very good information here ~ thanks for the input

I live on the dark underbelly of a flat world

What signs should we be looking for here as tipping points? You mention that you have an ICE vehicle that will be forced out by LEZ. Here long range thinking went the way of the dodo bird Is there a recycling or dumping ground for these older cars that have no resale value? If so, who runs it? Government or private? Since LEZ is a mandate by the state my assumption is the state. What is actually happening to the older inert technology?

Sadly for me I retired from active military duty in 1994 and thus missed the growth of solar energy in Germany Rapid growth of new homes was in the early stages though, and that was cool to see. I first arrived in Germany in 1969, which was on the verge digging itself out of poverty. In those days (1969~1972), one US dollar bought four German Marks I’ll have a chance to see some of the current development in October/November this year as my wife and I take our first ever boat cruise in the Mediterranean.

I was especially excited reading your comment about the noticeable improvement in air quality I am afraid our poor air quality here has dulled our senses

Recapping your comments, a by product of EVs will be better air quality and in tern, better living conditions for all

Sales of diesel cars have declined sharply in Belgium over the last 2 years: the Dieselgate scandal coincided with the first decisions to introduce LEZ rules (the individual cities apparently have the authority to set these rules) while at the same time the federal government increased the taxes on diesel as they were lower than the taxes on gasoline.
Around 2000, our government promoted diesel to achieve lower CO2 emissions, and on paper new diesel technology was a lot cleaner than previous generations. The result was a very high diesel percentage. Theoretically this should have improved air quality, but it didn’t. Since dieselgate we know why. The governmeng is now reversing and tries to lower the diesel penetration with higher taxes.
There is no compensation whatsoever for people owning banned cars. The social impact is mitigated by a stepwise tightening of the rules e.g. For the Ghent LEZ (the closest city near me) as of 2020 all Euro 3 diesels are banned, euro 4 diesels are allowed after paying a compensation, and euro 5 and 6 are still allowed. As of 2025, the rules tighten: euro 4 is not allowed anymore, euro 5 is allowed after paying a compensation, and euro 6 diesel will still be allowed.
My corolla is 18 years old and would be junked anyway soon. But euro 4 is fairly recent, and euro 6 is only a couple of years old, so these LEZ rules are fairly aggressive. In Belgium, all cars need to pass a yearly technical inspection. This time I got a leaflet explaining the impact of the LEZ in Ghent, with a message on my certification that my car is not allowed inside Low emission zones. The leaflet warns people that if they buy a second hand car that they have to be carefull with the euronorm of the vehicle as it will impact their ability to use the car anywhere.
So the question is: is this already impacting the resale value? I think yes. I’m not in the market for a second hand diesel, but I have the following anecdotal evidence: My collegues all drive nice BMW or Mercedes leased company cars (in Belgium this is for a lot of people part of their income). All of these cars are diesels, since they do a lot of kilometers. Even though these are fairly expensive cars, the lease cost is fairly low due to the high resale value after the 4 year lease. I now hear that the lease price for new cars has gone up significantly, I would assume that this is caused by rapidly decreasing resale value, as the lease companies are probably already impacted by this on end-of-lease cars. Current end-of-lease cars are 4 years old but euro 4 or 5, so those cars may be banned from the cities by the time they’re 10 years old.
We have a lez since 2017 in Antwerp, since 2018 in Brussels and from 2020 in Ghent and 3 other smaller cities. Antwerp, Ghent and Brussels are only 40 to 50 km apart, so a high percentage of the population in Belgium is impacted.

 

[kbM3]

I'm not sure the catalyst for a short squeeze will be the 5k/week milestone or the China announcement. These are both pretty well known, and I don't believe Elon would have counted on these starting a squeeze.

Supercharger V3 and the first FSD features are coming later this summer.

Could the catalyst be the automated Supercharging with possibly autonomous valet charging (as the first FSD feature)?

 

[Paracelsus]

Excellent article on China's cleaner energy revolution. While China may be the world's largest individual Greenhouse Gas Emitter at this point in time, it would be very interesting to see how they ranked if they were given 'Carbon Credits' for all of the renewable energy projects they supplied components for around the globe (solar panels, wind generators, EV's, hydro, etc.), and were thus credited for the reduction of fossil fuel use in other countries for their manufacturing efforts (perhaps some of the brilliant people on TMC can take a closer look and share their results?). I do believe China will surprise the world how quickly it cleans up its 'energy-act' at home, too. In the first quarter of 2018 China installed more solar power capacity than ALL of the of the US federal Northwest Hydro System (about 10,000 megawatts).

China and sustainability: The giant stirs by Scott Nyquist

China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world. Napoleon Bonaparte

"Electric vehicles (EVs): China is the pre-eminent global power in both making and using EVs. It accounted for more than 40 percent of global production in 2016, according to McKinsey estimates, and it has more EVs on the road than any other country. Consumers have more models to choose from than anywhere else, and the charging infrastructure is expanding fast. All this is just the beginning. “In China, [EVs] are going to happen, and faster than anywhere else,” said one conference participant. Another: “Electric mobility is being pushed more in China than any other place in the world.” No doubt a great deal of money is going to be wasted. There are some 300 companies in or getting into the EV market, which is way too many, and a number are dependent on government investment. But the direction could not be clearer. Subsidies cut the cost for consumers; and policies such as exempting EVs from license-plate lotteries in major cities are also helpful. More than a million EVs are likely to be sold this year, three times as many as in 2015. The goal is for EVs to have a market share of 12 percent by 2020, triple that of today.

Energy investment: China is spending more than $100 billion a year on renewable energy ($360 billion through 2020); it also accounts for more than 40 percent of global employment in the industry............."

 

[NicoV]

I was especially excited reading your comment about the noticeable improvement in air quality I am afraid our poor air quality here has dulled our senses

Don’t expect too much of that, it is mainly NOx that has lowered untill just above the european air quality norm (see Privacy settings edit: link title is not ok). We still have a long way to go.
Since you were in Germany in the seventies: I remember the main environmental concerns back then were acid rain. I remember seeing,big brown layers of dirty air just above the horizon. EU environmental rules have improved that dramatically, if you visit Germany again I guess you will notice the difference with the seventies.

 

[AZRI11]

Hm, an article about a 'Tesla fire' (no injuries and extinguished in minutes), and at the end they casually mention there was also another 'vehicle fire' nearby. Apparently the details and manufacturer are only important if it's Tesla.

Tesla Fire Closes Santa Monica Blvd. - WEHOville

Exactly, I still can't comprehend the hate for tesla, if your shorting that would help to explain. Reporters, dana and lora who are liberal pro environment and such they think this is another Theranos. If they did there own research instead of reading the shorts thesis they could see the light. What happened to journalism?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What happened to journalism?

Commercial media is all driven by clicks/page views now. Everything from CNBC to BGR is insufferable clickbait and/or fake news.

I still trust Public media like PBS, but following Tesla for the past 5 years has really shown me how much media outfit lie, lie, and lie just to make more money.

 

[mutle]

I still trust Public media like PBS, but following Tesla for the past 5 years has really shown me how much media outfit lie, lie, and lie just to make more money.

I wouldn't put too much trust into them either. Even public media needs sponsorships (including the Koch brothers and other fossil fuel money). I linked these articles a while back in General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable but it bears repeating:

The Wolf of Sesame Street: Revealing the secret corruption inside PBS's news division
The Corporate Dictatorship of PBS and NPR

Edit: Just noticed that I responded to you with my original post too.

 

[Remus]

I agree with Lutz that Tesla does not have some crazy unique tech. It will be copied with ease. Tesla doesn't care about that and they can't really stop it nor do they really want to stop it. Tesla's tech advantage is much simpler than that. Tesla has the will and the balls to invest billions in scale battery manufacturing. That simple thing. The will to do it and the balls to risk everything are what Tesla had that no one else does. It's actually a bigger advantage then some battery tech lead.

The reason Tesla can't and won't partner in China is that the factory is their only real valuable IP. The code not the robots so much. Anyone can buy a bunch of robots, not many can make those one armed, dumb and blind machines smart and ultimately useful. It's very hard for a spy to copy the brains of the machine that builds the machine.

There is zero doubt in my mind that Daimler and BMW and VW could build millions of EVs. Their problem is that they don't want to and it will be excessively painful to the bottom line. Tesla investors are paying for growth, GM investors are paying for dividends. They don't want GM to lose money ever. They won't tolerate it. Every EV those companies sell is a lost, profitable ICEv sale at a loss, so they will never fully commit until it's too late. But don't you fret, the government will step in and bail some of them out and force them to make EVs at a loss.

The tech advantage is real the will to do things at massive scale which is hyper risky and brains in the machine that makes the machine.

They other advantage Tesla has that is easily copied and you're started to see it. Tesla knew they had to make the EV sexy. It had drive people to pay more then the vehicles were worth. That worked for the S, but the model 3 is actually worth what you pay and still will pull people up market from Camry and Accord and even Hyundai and kia. This brand value is very hard to copy, but autos can make sexier EVs. Again, it will hurt their profitable ICEv business, but that is their problem.

Last, Tesla doesn't have all the legacy chart and bankruptcy is the only way around those issues for traditional autos. In many cases the government's will not allow that and will bail then out, which doesn't really fix the problem. They are basically doomed, because they lose either way and may never be able to catch up. My guess is VW and Toyota will survive with help, the rest will be subsidiaries like Audi and Porsche are today.

While I agree with the general sentiment of your argument here I do have a small bone to pick. Tesla does have some unique tech, at least in car industry. And it doesn't seem like others can catch up in a couple of years.

Andrew Ng said if you're a retailer, adding a website doesn't make you a e-commerce company. The real time usage data collection, data oriented decision making and fast iteration make you an e-commerce company. Similarly, a couple of neurual network in your product does not make you an AI company, it takes much more than that.

Although we saw in the last decade large retailers taking big strides towards user usage data collection, analytics and decision making, same can not be said about the car industry at all. Tesla is the only one with a fleet of fully connected cars with onboard diagnosis system. They are the only one that has an IoT robotic car fleet. We have already seen a tiny bit of that in the works as model 3 UI evolve over time. And even when Tesla's operations leave a lot to be desired, this network allows them to constantly improve.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I wouldn't put too much trust into them either. Even public media needs sponsorships (including the Koch brothers and other fossil fuel money). I linked these articles a while back in General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable but it bears repeating:

The Wolf of Sesame Street: Revealing the secret corruption inside PBS's news division
The Corporate Dictatorship of PBS and NPR

Edit: Just noticed that I responded to you with my original post too.

This really doesn’t address the issue of clickbait. PBS and NPR don’t sensationalize. Their news shows are serious, unlike the frivolous garbage I occasionally see on broadcast or cable tv (the lounge at my workplace is sometimes tuned into mainstream media)

I do recall that NPR disclosed on air that they received funding from the Koch Foundation at some point.

That hasn’t stopped Terry Gross from skewering the Kochs at every opportunity on her obviously Liberally biased daily talk show, which I listen to often. If the Koch’s influence was so great, NPR would have stopped beating the drum on Climate Change and air pollution issues long ago.

 

[avoigt]

CEO Elon Musk gave a status update to employees. He said that all parts of the production process are now operating at over 3,500 units per week and he will stay “almost 24/7” at the Fremont factory to help fix the last few bottlenecks to bring the production to ~700 units per day.
In a new email to employees, Musk wrote this week:

“It’s getting very exciting! All parts of the Model 3 production system are now above 500 and some are almost at 700 cars already. Congratulations to all on making so much progress!”

The CEO said that “paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga” all need “radical improvements.

Jerome Guillen, the head of Tesla Semi, is now overseeing the new general assembly line and Tesla CTO JB Straubel is working on the ‘Module Zone 4’ at Gigafactory 1 to increase Model 3 battery pack production.

The CEO invited anyone in the company who “feel can help out in any of those areas” to reach out to those execs and others in charge of the previously mentioned bottlenecks areas.

He added:

“I will be at our Fremont factory almost 24/7 for the next several days checking in with those groups to make sure they have as many resources as they can handle.”

Tesla Model 3 production update: Elon Musk will be ‘almost 24/7’ at factory to help fix a few bottlenecks

 

[lunitiks]

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I am a little concerned that they supposedly are building one of the GA lines in a giant tent outside. Even assuming it's a walled in, temperature controlled, etc environment ... I hope it gets a real home before I place my order.

Also, is this the first mention we have of GA4? I think they talked about GA3 most recently and that it only took two weeks to get installed...

 

[ggr]

I am a little concerned that they supposedly are building one of the GA lines in a giant tent outside. Even assuming it's a walled in, temperature controlled, etc environment ... I hope it gets a real home before I place my order.

Also, is this the first mention we have of GA4? I think they talked about GA3 most recently and that it only took two weeks to get installed...

That was the third battery assembly line at the Gigafactory, I think.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Since car cannot do 60-0 in one millisecond, that does not matter.

However you handwave it, driving deals with incomplete information. Get over it.

Not sure why you are avoiding the actual issue. Perhaps it's a definition problem? 60-0 does not matter. What matters is whether in that millisecond the vehicle can take whatever action is needed that might cause problems in the future that can be extrapolated from all known information. I assert that it is effectively a complete information game because there is no unknown information that can reasonable affect what actions need to be taken.

Yes, technically there is unknown information: it is possible that a plane can drop from the sky; some idiot could toss a brick off a bridge; a deer could suddenly run in front. But all these things are outside the task of driving 10x better than a human. Humans can't detect these things until it's too late, so within the parameters of a reasonable goal they really aren't part of the game. They're bonus points.

So please, if you're going to disagree, please point to something useful that provides a basis for that disagreement. Simply asserting that I'm wrong isn't very useful.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Supercharger V3 and the first FSD features are coming later this summer.

Last mention from Elon had V3 supercharging not coming until the end of this year.

 

[sundaymorning]

Shorts are going to be all over this. Short term I think this is bad. It’s likely that the underbelly was punctured without the driver knowing, but if there is some sort of wiring that’s off, then Tesla will need to address it. I hope they get to the bottom of this soon, within the next 3-5 days so we can swiftly get over this news. Otherwise shorters and the media will cream them. How bad will this be taken out of context?