General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Will be interesting when first Model 3 with VIN > 10 000 will be delivered.

Right now the thing that eats away at me the most is the delivery numbers for Bolt, not because I hate the car, because I think its a fine vehicle. Just because I know the bolt is inferior to the Model 3 and I cant stand the shorts who compare the two and proclaim the bolt as the winner. If shorts believe the idea that competition will crush Tesla, they have no farther to look then bolt vs Model 3 once they start to deliver 3k+ per month, which hopefully will start in Jan. or at the latest Feb.

 

[scaesare]

me too #3:

Audi Reveals Plans to Develop ‘Smart Energy Network' that Will Rival Tesla Energy

So if the Audi Press Release-to-Actual-Product ratio for EV's is 50:1, I wonder what it will be for energy products?

 

[tinm]

Meanwhile, auto dealerships can rest easy thanks to the rise of electric cars, says Automotive News. Yes, nothing to worry about from the silly non-threat of Tesla on the dealers. Porsche exec in fact points to a rosy future with electrics, a future where business will boom more than ever!

How might this be? Porsche plans to steal business back from independent Porsche repair companies, and have its dealers provide service on hundreds of thousands of “classic” (read: ICE) Porsches.

LOL.

Dealers are vital in electrified, self-driving future

 

[Starno]

I think Tesla should make Amazon alexa voice available.
People should be able to buy stuff while driving with their voice.

Just to clarify why :
Humans value 3 things the most : money, health, time.

Amazon Alexa voice make people save TIME. This is huge.

If people are able to buy some milk while on the road from work to their home, instead of wasting time to the grocery store.... it's going to be a game changer.

I know some people like to go to the grocery shop just for fun, but most of the time when people quit work they're in a hurry to get home, take their shoes off, and relax.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Meanwhile, auto dealerships can rest easy thanks to the rise of electric cars, says Automotive News. Yes, nothing to worry about from the silly non-threat of Tesla on the dealers. Porsche exec in fact points to a rosy future with electrics, a future where business will boom more than ever!

How might this be? Porsche plans to steal business back from independent Porsche repair companies, and have its dealers provide service on hundreds of thousands of “classic” (read: ICE) Porsches.

LOL.

Dealers are vital in electrified, self-driving future

Not so related but I can still see manufacturers purposely making crappy EVs that will need plenty of dealership visits after warranty expiration.

I don’t see the doom and gloom of dealerships just yet. With ICE manufacturers anything can be possible. All the better for Tesla.

 

[Skryll]

Can't help but telling everybody that, as of this weekend, I'm not only an investor in Tesla, but a Model S owner too!

While opportunity cost may seem high, product validation is an important safety check. I bet you are ready to put more money down after living with a model S for a little while

 

[andrewt3000]

The thing that has had me shaking my head for so long is that all the Tesla bear cases are by people who can't count beans. It's a standard economies-of-scale business: the only way to be successful is to be large, so they have to grow as fast as possible. Once they achieve the economies of scale, they are profitable. The same sort of economics applied to the railroads of the 1830s and they knew it.

I have thought about this a lot... because I have thought... "What am I missing?" The most sensible conclusion I have come to is...
these old school car guys and analysts think this way about Tesla because GM shareholders won't tolerate these types of short term losses. Their shareholders are conservative... more like value investors that want a dividend and no risk. They would probably sell off the stock if they made radical changes. Whereas Tesla's stockholders are growth investors and get the story.

I think this is what some people mean when they say Tesla is more like a tech company than an auto company.

 

[DurandalAI]

Just to clarify why :
Humans value 3 things the most : money, health, time.

Amazon Alexa voice make people save TIME. This is huge.

If people are able to buy some milk while on the road from work to their home, instead of wasting time to the grocery store.... it's going to be a game changer.

I know some people like to go to the grocery shop just for fun, but most of the time when people quit work they're in a hurry to get home, take their shoes off, and relax.

I buy as much as possible via Amazon and Walmart online in order to avoid going to the store for staple items. Huge box of bath tissue delivered to my door on Friday because life is too short to be going down aisle 20 to buy TP. The exceptions are fresh goods, where I’m picky with what I buy and won’t trust it to someone else.

 

[Gerardf]

me too #3:

Audi Reveals Plans to Develop ‘Smart Energy Network' that Will Rival Tesla Energy

In other Audi news today :
'Illegale software op 127.000 Audi's aangetroffen' | NU - Het laatste nieuws het eerst op NU.nl

Audi (again) caught using illegal sofware in their diesels.


Google translate :
The Federal Transport Authority of Germany (KBA) has instructed Audi to recall 127,000 models to the dealer due to illegal software on V6 diesel engines.
Software has been found on the cars which ensures that the emissions are less harmful during a check in the garage than during normal use outside on the road.

The news was brought by Bild Am Sonntag and has since been confirmed by the Ministry of Transport. According to the newspaper, the CBA threatened to withdraw the type approval for the new Audi A8.

The recall also involves the A4, A5, A6 and A7, as well as the Q5 and Q7 crossovers of the brand equipped with the latest generation V6 diesel engines. On paper, these engines meet the Euro 6 emission standard.

According to the CBA, 77,600 copies have to be returned to the workshop in Germany. In a reaction, Audi said that it had already counted the models in the recall campaign announced in July 2017.

The manufacturer added that the software used will be revised and that the models will be presented to the CBA for inspection.

Edit : also on other presss channels :
Audi ordered to recall 127,000 vehicles over emissions: paper
Audi recalls 125,000 cars over diesel emissions ‘cheating’

 

[Starno]

I buy as much as possible via Amazon and Walmart online in order to avoid going to the store for staple items. Huge box of bath tissue delivered to my door on Friday because life is too short to be going down aisle 20 to buy TP. The exceptions are fresh goods, where I’m picky with what I buy and won’t trust it to someone else.

Agreed. That's why I think it would be a smart strategy from Tesla. Now it doesn't need to be Alexa voice from Amazon, it can be a system made by Tesla that connects to your Amazon app.

But the fact that people can be in their car, from work, on their way to home, and remember that something misses at home and can just buy it without having to derive from the original plan of getting home is pretty great.

 

[sub]

Right now the thing that eats away at me the most is the delivery numbers for Bolt, not because I hate the car, because I think its a fine vehicle. Just because I know the bolt is inferior to the Model 3 and I cant stand the shorts who compare the two and proclaim the bolt as the winner. If shorts believe the idea that competition will crush Tesla, they have no farther to look then bolt vs Model 3 once they start to deliver 3k+ per month, which hopefully will start in Jan. or at the latest Feb.

You should do yourself a favor and ignore the Bears. Nothing will shut them up, once they lose on one point they just fabricate another.

I had a friend over this past weekend and he wanted to check out our new X. Not surprisingly he immediately starts parroting all the FUD (cash burn!) he reads and has no original thoughts on EV's or Tesla. I wasn't surprised by his opinion, he is a creationist Christian after all so it's a political ideology.

I use to think I could convince people using logic and facts, I don't bother anymore. I simply said "whatever, EV's are the future and that's where my money is, good luck" then moved on.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Meanwhile, auto dealerships can rest easy thanks to the rise of electric cars, says Automotive News. Yes, nothing to worry about from the silly non-threat of Tesla on the dealers. Porsche exec in fact points to a rosy future with electrics, a future where business will boom more than ever!
How might this be? Porsche plans to steal business back from independent Porsche repair companies, and have its dealers provide service on hundreds of thousands of “classic” (read: ICE) Porsches. LOL.
Dealers are vital in electrified, self-driving future

Not disputing this post, but it occurs to me that ICE manufacturers and dealerships are symbiotic (or maybe mutually parasitic?) and need one another. It's too expensive for ICE companies to open their own sales and service centers for their EVs as Tesla has done.
If car sales remain break even for dealers while changing mix of ICE and EVs slowly erodes their business due to EVs needing less maintenance and repairs, they will over time degrade and eventually that hurts the manufacturers.

Once both sides realize EVs will replace ICE and they are between a rock and a hard place, they will have to jointly adapt their business model no matter how each may hate doing so. One possible compromise adjustment I can imagine is them agreeing to build in necessary dealer sales profit margin on the EV portion of sales to offset what they will miss from servicing those. Their ICE sales could continue to be sold as now with no or little profit as they will generate service income for the lifetime of the ICE vehicles. I'm sure there are many problems with such a compromise, but at least it smooths the 10 - 15 year transition period where EVs year by year are a higher % of sales vs ICE.

 

[Reciprocity]

You should do yourself a favor and ignore the Bears. Nothing will shut them up, once they lose on one point they just fabricate another.

I had a friend over this past weekend and he wanted to check out our new X. Not surprisingly he immediately starts parroting all the FUD (cash burn!) he reads and has no original thoughts on EV's or Tesla. I wasn't surprised by his opinion, he is a creationist Christian after all so it's a political ideology.

I use to think I could convince people using logic and facts, I don't bother anymore. I simply said "whatever, EV's are the future and that's where my money is, good luck" then moved on.

I have no issue sifting through the FUD to differentiate fact from fiction. The Bolt thing is more of a personal thing. Its almost like checking polls every day before the elections. You want to see movement in your direction and its frustrating waiting for that moment when the numbers turn in your favor. I get that its silly, but it grinds on me ever time I see the monthly us scorecard from inside evs. I just have to take a deep breath and not care to much at this point. In a different world where there was no model 3 or S/X, the bold would be a decent car and much better then the Leaf, pre 2018. No one is going to see a bolt rolling down the road and think to themselves that just must have it. I just cant to see model 3s more often then I do S/X, which is pretty often lately.

 

[Off Shore]

E

Once both sides realize EVs will replace ICE and they are between a rock and a hard place, they will have to jointly adapt their business model no matter how each may hate doing so.

Exactly one buggy manufacturer, Studebaker, transitioned into the auto era. Buggy manufacturer CEOs weren't stupid men, they were caught in a new reality which their structure couldn't accommodate. The current CEOs' cognitive inability to imagine an EV future is delaying their response, but the structure of their business will make any response they attempt very painful.

Edit: crappy proofreading

 

[sub]

I have no issue sifting through the FUD to differentiate fact from fiction. The Bolt thing is more of a personal thing. Its almost like checking polls every day before the elections. You want to see movement in your direction and its frustrating waiting for that moment when the numbers turn in your favor. I get that its silly, but it grinds on me ever time I see the monthly us scorecard from inside evs. I just have to take a deep breath and not care to much at this point. In a different world where there was no model 3 or S/X, the bold would be a decent car and much better then the Leaf, pre 2018. No one is going to see a bolt rolling down the road and think to themselves that just must have it. I just cant to see model 3s more often then I do S/X, which is pretty often lately.

Not hating on you, I enjoy reading your posts and you contribute significantly more to the discussion than I ever do.

I was just looking out for your mental health. Let them "dance on failure" while they feel they still can, I'll retire early on their BK.

He who laughs last as they say.

 

[Curt Renz]

...One possible compromise adjustment I can imagine is them agreeing to build in necessary dealer sales profit margin on the EV portion of sales to offset what they will miss from servicing those...

Interesting proposal. However the dealerships of a particular manufacturer would still compete with each. Competition in a free market should again drive prices down to minimal margins above the dealers' wholesale cost for a car.

It seems that the dealership model may be doomed. We could get a ruling in February from a US federal court in Michigan regarding Tesla's lawsuit against state officials. If it's favorable toward Tesla, that may mark the beginning of the end for the dealership model.

 

[dc_h]

Interesting proposal. However the dealerships of a particular manufacturer would still compete with each. Competition in a free market should again drive prices down to minimal margins above the dealers' wholesale cost for a car.

It seems that the dealership model may be doomed. We could get a ruling in February from a US federal court in Michigan regarding Tesla's lawsuit against state officials. If it's favorable toward Tesla, that may mark the beginning of the end for the dealership model.

The challenge the dealers have is the legacy cost of maintenance. Tesla in the long run should get a fraction of support cost that a dealer will, but dealers can't just scrub their shop and write the cost down, they need to transition and support both ecosystems for a decade or more. A sunken cost is just that, but it doesn't mean you can always recognize a sunken cost and move on, sometimes that cost is there and has a long tail that must be maintained, even through bankruptcy. Dealer models and profit ratio from sales vs vehicle support is going to have to change and that is easier said than done. If I were a dealer, I would be looking to separate my dealership from my shop now and break out the financials. If the shop needs to go bankrupt, my inventory of cars and the dealership as a whole is protected and my decision making about supporting EV's and more reliable cars in general, becomes much easier to think about long term.

MOD: All - please see Moderator's post, below

 

[Curt Renz]

NY Times - 14 minutes ago: Trump Slaps Steep Tariffs on Imported Washing Machines and Solar Products

 

[JRP3]

This could generate some negative noise tomorrow, probably nothing significant though:
Model S hits truck

 

[sundaymorning]

This could generate some negative noise tomorrow, probably nothing significant though:
Model S hits truck

That’s what they all say after an accident “it wasn’t me, autopilot did it”. Drivers need to know Tesla has a log that tracks your vehicle. SMH thanks for the link anyway.