General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

For those of you who are interested in growth rates of cars with electric powertrain 2016 to 2017....



As that discussion came up lately. Germany for instance does not do that bad last year considering 1/3 of the population of the US and doubling numbers.

 

[Words of HABIT]

If you Google it you will find the blogs from Tesla from when they were released. Model S was August 2013 but the Model X wasn't until June of last year. Getting the car might be a problem because NHTSA has someone buy it like any other customer since they don't want carmakers knowing which car is for them. If they didn't reserve it could be a while before they get one to test.

Perhaps you are referring specific to NE. For USA, MS sales commenced June 2012, MX on September 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

 

[Reciprocity]

I wouldn't think so since that would be counter to what they are showing in their web site. Sure they could change direction but would certainly take a lot of heat for it. It appears there are alot of employees who are anxious for the smaller battery and I suspect they reallly want to take care of their own.. I think an interesting question is whether they will offer the standard interior with the standard battery or whether they will continue with the premium interior for a brief period. That would at least drop the cost by $9k.

Your right, had my dates wrong, tough I wonder if there dual and P come out in close succession. I agree that the smaller battery first is better for image and delivering on the original promise.

 

[Reciprocity]

For those of you who are interested in growth rates of cars with electric powertrain 2016 to 2017....



As that discussion came up lately. Germany for instance does not do that bad last year considering 1/3 of the population of the US and doubling numbers.

Just to be clear, the reasons I raised the German EV question is because if how big the S-class is in Germany. With upwards of 80,000 units per year and we'll over 60% of total units sold worldwide. Considering Tesla model S out sells the S class in the use by 3:1 or more. Just seems like a tremendous opportunity. Does all if Europe production go through tilburg? Is there a chance to increase total production by offloading more to tilburg?

 

[Zaxxon]

Perhaps you are referring specific to NE. For USA, MS sales commenced June 2012, MX on September 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

We're talking about when the safety ratings came out, not when the vehicles first went on sale. The ratings for S and X were *not* available when they first went on sale.

 

[Words of HABIT]

We're talking about when the safety ratings came out, not when the vehicles first went on sale. The ratings for S and X were *not* available when they first went on sale.

OK, but I still question the dates stated by uselesslogin for safety ratings need to be confirmed. I would be very surprised if it took 12 months and 21 months respectively for the MS/MX ratings to be published. I would think a few months tops for each new model.

 

[Gerardf]

For those of you who are interested in growth rates of cars with electric powertrain 2016 to 2017....



As that discussion came up lately. Germany for instance does not do that bad last year considering 1/3 of the population of the US and doubling numbers.

The reason The Netherlands went down is that tax incentives are now only given for BEV’s, no longer for PHEV’s.

 

[mongo]

OK, but I still question the dates stated by uselesslogin for safety ratings need to be confirmed. I would be very surprised if it took 12 months and 21 months respectively for the MS/MX ratings to be published. I would think a few months tops for each new model.

There are (at least) two different sets of test data: the internal testing done by Tesla during pre-sale certification, and the independent testing done by IIHS once in production. It is the latter that is published as "top safety pick".

Edit: Also NHTSA and their 5 star rating system.
Edit: Comparision of the two

 

[mutle]

As that discussion came up lately. Germany for instance does not do that bad last year considering 1/3 of the population of the US and doubling numbers.

To add to that, in December the market share was at 2.5% for PEVs. Up from a little bit above 1% a year ago. 4% at the end of 2018 seems possible.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/2018/01/germany-december-2017.html

 

[Reciprocity]

To add to that, in December the market share was at 2.5% for PEVs. Up from a little bit above 1% a year ago. 4% at the end of 2018 seems possible.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/2018/01/germany-december-2017.html

These are very odd numbers to me:
Tesla Model S & Others

Model

Dec. Sales
Mercedes S-Class
525

BMW 7-Series
371

Porsche Panamera
287

BMW 6-Series
234

Tesla Model S
213

As the Tesla Sports Sedan reaches historic high levels, it is time to see if it can make a dent on the German flagship models, if the top two positions seem out of range, the remaining places could be reached, will it reach Third during 2018?

But back to December, the Model S from Tesla was Fifth, with 213 units, a 33% increase over the 160 deliveries of December '16.

The article seems to be EV focused, are the above numbers for EV versions of those cars because the S class sells like 9x that in a month in Germany?

The rest of the article makes sense and seems inline with recent acceleration if growth. Are the tax incentives issues there going to impact this demand. Has that been resolved? Germany should be a huge market for Tesla.

 

[Zaxxon]

OK, but I still question the dates stated by uselesslogin for safety ratings need to be confirmed. I would be very surprised if it took 12 months and 21 months respectively for the MS/MX ratings to be published. I would think a few months tops for each new model.

I don't recall the exact timing, but it was a very long time after each went on sale. Far more than a few months.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't recall the exact timing, but it was a very long time after each went on sale. Far more than a few months.

Agreed. A year or more after first customers got their vehicles.

 

[AudubonB]

For those of you who are interested in growth rates ...
Germany for instance does not do that bad last year considering 1/3 of the population of the US and doubling numbers.

In fact, at 82.3mm vs 324.3mm, Germany's population is 1/4 that of the US.

 

[Starno]

I'm surprised there isn't more celebrities driving Teslas though.
Especially as they're often times " social issues driven ".

 

[Curt Renz]

Although unmentioned in the article, autonomous electric semi trucks may solve the problem.

Wall Street Journal - Saturday: Trucking Companies Race to Add Capacity, Drivers as Market Heats Up

 

[mutle]

The article seems to be EV focused, are the above numbers for EV versions of those cars because the S class sells like 9x that in a month in Germany?

The rest of the article makes sense and seems inline with recent acceleration if growth. Are the tax incentives issues there going to impact this demand. Has that been resolved? Germany should be a huge market for Tesla.

No, this is a comparison with ICE cars as those are the real competitors for the Model S (no other EVs in that range). Not sure where you read that the S class sells thousands per month, because I don’t think that is true.

 

[Bobfitz1]

A public service for any TMC members holding Mazda stock:

“Think about these negative consequences for consumers when you have more electric cars,” Hitomi (Mitsua Hitomi, Mazda head of technical research) said. “I personally don’t think the age for electric vehicles will ever come.”

Mazda Says Improved Gasoline Cars Cut Need for Electric Vehicles

 

[Reciprocity]

No, this is a comparison with ICE cars as those are the real competitors for the Model S (no other EVs in that range). Not sure where you read that the S class sells thousands per month, because I don’t think that is true.

There are a ton of different numbers, it's hard to determine what is real. Find this link that shows EU sales and had model S and s class almost identical for jan-nov on the bottom table:

http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-analysis-november-2017-models/

Though I read somewhere else that s class sold like 100,000 ww and 60,000 on Germany which is clearly wrong based on the above link and what we know if US sales. I posted that link earlier in this thread.

 

[Starno]

I think Tesla should make Amazon alexa voice available.
People should be able to buy stuff while driving with their voice.

 

[Curt Renz]

A public service for any TMC members holding Mazda stock:

“Think about these negative consequences for consumers when you have more electric cars,” Hitomi (Mitsua Hitomi, Mazda head of technical research) said. “I personally don’t think the age for electric vehicles will ever come.”

Mazda Says Improved Gasoline Cars Cut Need for Electric Vehicles

Most people believe only what they "want" to believe. - Julius Caesar