General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Not really worth the click, but if you're bored, it's kinda funny in a ridiculous way.
https://jalopnik.com/bob-lutz-thinks-the-model-s-will-be-collectable-after-t-1822267177

It appears that Lutz doesn't understand anything about business finances -- makes me wonder how he made it to Vice Chairman. But then again, his book is called "car guys vs bean counters" and he puts himself on the "car guy" side; apparently he was hired due to being proud of his inability to count beans.

The thing that has had me shaking my head for so long is that all the Tesla bear cases are by people who can't count beans. It's a standard economies-of-scale business: the only way to be successful is to be large, so they have to grow as fast as possible. Once they achieve the economies of scale, they are profitable. The same sort of economics applied to the railroads of the 1830s and they knew it.

The informative part of the article is that "car guy" Lutz thinks the Model S will be highly collectible. Well, I have a VIN under 6000, and that's my hope -- I plan to donate it to a museum when I die!

 

[Gerardf]

These are very odd numbers to me:
Tesla Model S & Others

The article seems to be EV focused, are the above numbers for EV versions of those cars because the S class sells like 9x that in a month in Germany?
The rest of the article makes sense and seems inline with recent acceleration if growth. Are the tax incentives issues there going to impact this demand. Has that been resolved? Germany should be a huge market for Tesla.

Here are all numbers per brand and model in Germany for 2016. All statistics you would want. Have not found 2017 numbers yet, used to be published monthly.
https://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publi...6/fz4_2016_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

 

[Reciprocity]

Here are all numbers per brand and model in Germany for 2016. All statistics you would want. Have not found 2017 numbers yet, used to be published monthly.
https://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publi...6/fz4_2016_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

Thanks for this, I need to track down that article I read and find the site and burn down the server room. It's best for everyone.

Edit: here is an example..
Mercedes-Benz S-Class is a sales hit, more than 100,000 units delivered in a year

So far this year, Mercedes-Benz managed to deliver 75,391 units of the S-Class which is more than double (+105.8 percent) compared to the same period of last year. Last month they sold 9,501 cars which represents a massive 139.3 percent increase compared to September 2013. In the first nine months of the year Mercedes-Benz sold more units of its flagship model than they did in the full years 2012 and 2013.

This is from 2014 and world wide.. This is now recent:

Mercedes-Benz Sells Over 100,000 S-Classes In A Single Year

 

[sundaymorning]

Not really worth the click, but if you're bored, it's kinda funny in a ridiculous way.
https://jalopnik.com/bob-lutz-thinks-the-model-s-will-be-collectable-after-t-1822267177

Bob Lutz has been anti-Tesla since day one. No one around here really takes him seriously. One thing that I do find interesting about Lutz, is that his words are likely representative of how other board members and CEOs from legacy ICE manufacturs also feels about Tesla & EVs. Which has partially contributed to the slow adoption of the obviously superior product.

 

[RobStark]

This is from 2014 and world wide.. This is now recent:

Mercedes-Benz Sells Over 100,000 S-Classes In A Single Year

China is the single biggest market, with almost one out of every two S-Classes ending up there. And China doesn’t only have the most S-Class buyers, it also has the youngest: most of them are in their early 40s, which on average is 15 years younger than in the U.S. Around 35 percent of S-Classes sold in China are ordered as chauffeur vehicles.

The U.S. is the next biggest market for S-Classes, accounting for roughly a quarter of all production.

Recap China is ~45% of S Class sales, USA is ~25% sales, and RoW is ~30%.

Interesting factoid. In 2016 Canadians purchased 1049 S Class or 29 per million people while the USA bought 18,803 or 58 per million people. Americans purchased at twice the rate of Canadians.

 

[avoigt]

In fact, at 82.3mm vs 324.3mm, Germany's population is 1/4 that of the US.

True and thanks for correcting. In fact my argument that Germany is not doing that bad is now even more valid.

 

[Yuri_G]

A public service for any TMC members holding Mazda stock:

“Think about these negative consequences for consumers when you have more electric cars,” Hitomi (Mitsua Hitomi, Mazda head of technical research) said. “I personally don’t think the age for electric vehicles will ever come.”

Mazda Says Improved Gasoline Cars Cut Need for Electric Vehicles

Currently drive a Mazda 3. It's a great car and I'll be sad to see Mazda go, but good riddance with that foresight.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Currently drive a Mazda 3. It's a great car and I'll be sad to see Mazda go, but good riddance with that foresight.

My girlfriend's 2016 top of the line Mazda 3 feels sluggish compared with my 2004 Prius in terms of pedal lag. The Mazda is still a pretty good ICE car, but even the electric motor in a lowly Prius can react so much quicker than an engine of a supposedly pretty sporty "normal" car. I can't wait to get behind the wheels of a Model 3.

 

[bdy0627]

Bob Lutz has been anti-Tesla since day one. No one around here really takes him seriously. One thing that I do find interesting about Lutz, is that his words are likely representative of how other board members and CEOs from legacy ICE manufacturs also feels about Tesla & EVs. Which has partially contributed to the slow adoption of the obviously superior product.

Exactly. He is not an opinion island on that side. He is one of the reasons I am investing in call options. How often does the market give you this kind of gift? Where someone like him isn't the oddball but the mainstream?

 

[SteveG3]

Bob Lutz has been anti-Tesla since day one. No one around here really takes him seriously. One thing that I do find interesting about Lutz, is that his words are likely representative of how other board members and CEOs from legacy ICE manufacturs also feels about Tesla & EVs. Which has partially contributed to the slow adoption of the obviously superior product.

I think it's more representative of what Lutz and other incumbent automaker CEOs feel as though they'd like to influence the public to think, rather than what they themselves actually do think. Lutz may not be a "bean counter' but it's almost impossible to believe he does not understand amortizing costs and/or investing in growth, and instead, actually thinks each additional Model S and X Tesla sells leads to larger losses.

If you are by and large going to leave the public no choice but to buy your gasoline cars rather than EVs, it can look attractive to attempt to persuade the public that this product mix plan was seen as being in the interest of the consumer, rather than the interest of the business. Basically, this is the same as NADA trying to persuade the public that the fight against Tesla's direct sales approach is about protecting the consumer rather than protection of their existing business model.

In the case of NADA, it's pretty transparent that they don't actually believe what they are saying. In the case of the incumbent ICE manufacturers, most people, even here on TMC seem to think the automakers are being intellectually honest, but foolish. I may be mistaken, but, I think more than anything, they are just doing a variation of what NADA has been doing, i.e., they almost all know EVs are the future, but they are trying to use their weight to push that future off as much as possible, and they'd rather market a narrative about consumer preference than corporate self-interest.

 

[Off Shore]

I think it's more representative of what Lutz and other incumbent automaker CEOs feel as though they'd like to influence the public to think, rather than what they themselves actually do think. Lutz may not be a "bean counter' but it's almost impossible to believe he does not understand amortizing costs and/or investing in growth, and instead, actually thinks each additional Model S and X Tesla sells leads to larger losses.

If you are by and large going to leave the public no choice but to buy your gasoline cars rather than EVs, it can look attractive to attempt to persuade the public that this product mix plan was seen as being in the interest of the consumer, rather than the interest of the business. Basically, this is the same as NADA trying to persuade the public that the fight against Tesla's direct sales approach is about protecting the consumer rather than protection of their existing business model.

In the case of NADA, it's pretty transparent that they don't actually believe what they are saying. In the case of the incumbent ICE manufacturers, most people, even here on TMC seem to think the automakers are being intellectually honest, but foolish. I may be mistaken, but, I think more than anything, they are just doing a variation of what NADA has been doing, i.e., they almost all know EVs are the future, but they are trying to use their weight to push that future off as much as possible, and they'd rather market a narrative about consumer preference than corporate self-interest.

I see your argument, and raise with the observation that paying someone a salary is a powerful way to distort their reality field, and probably has been for millennia.

 

[BETA1019]

There are (at least) two different sets of test data: the internal testing done by Tesla during pre-sale certification, and the independent testing done by IIHS once in production. It is the latter that is published as "top safety pick".

Edit: Also NHTSA and their 5 star rating system.
Edit: Comparision of the two

Is there any way whatsoever that we can find out when the ratings may be an nounced? Would be great to time a purchase.

Edit: time a purchase... of shares, that is.

 

[mrdoubleb]

It appears that Lutz doesn't understand anything about business finances -- makes me wonder how he made it to Vice Chairman. But then again, his book is called "car guys vs bean counters" and he puts himself on the "car guy" side; apparently he was hired due to being proud of his inability to count beans.

The thing that has had me shaking my head for so long is that all the Tesla bear cases are by people who can't count beans. It's a standard economies-of-scale business: the only way to be successful is to be large, so they have to grow as fast as possible. Once they achieve the economies of scale, they are profitable. The same sort of economics applied to the railroads of the 1830s and they knew it.

The informative part of the article is that "car guy" Lutz thinks the Model S will be highly collectible. Well, I have a VIN under 6000, and that's my hope -- I plan to donate it to a museum when I die!

So if the Model S will become a "collectible" after having sold about 180k, give or take, what does that make his beloved Cadillac ELR?

 

[Reciprocity]

This is kind of cool:

The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade - The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade

I wonder if Tesla would be big enough volume to qualify with Apple and Amazon in the best future.

 

[Buddyroe]

Can't help but telling everybody that, as of this weekend, I'm not only an investor in Tesla, but a Model S owner too!

 

[avoigt]

me too #3:

Audi Reveals Plans to Develop ‘Smart Energy Network' that Will Rival Tesla Energy

 

[Bobfitz1]

me too #3:
Audi Reveals Plans to Develop ‘Smart Energy Network' that Will Rival Tesla Energy

Funny, the me too ICE companies don't get the integrated 'tie rod' connecting mass EV auto production to residential and utility scale energy storage is producing the batteries both require in giga quantities. Requires some serious magical thinking to imagine getting into solar storage projects will replace their ICE profits as those crumble in next 10 years.

 

[Drax7]

The vaporware from ice manufacturers is getting more desperate.
The vaporware announcement of the week prize is in full monte.

 

[Lessmog]

The vaporware from ice manufacturers is getting more desperate.
The vaporware announcement of the week prize is in full monte.

Has something to do with dry ICE = solid CO2 ? Gives off a lot of mist (akes)

 

[Starno]

Will be interesting when first Model 3 with VIN > 10 000 will be delivered.