Problem is the non-exact talk only manages to spread FUD.
Ramping plans are what exactly? 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 100%?
In what time-frame exactly? In a month, In a year, In a decade?
What growth can "currently known supplies" support? 10% 20%? 50%?
One can easily pose unrealistic vague growth targets and then preach how there is not enough supplies and therefore Tesla is doomed. It is happening already, even on this board.
I'd rather see hard numerical data on how much supplies there is or can be at some price-point and what growth rate it can support. Understanding lies in numbers - if you cannot compute it, you do no understand it.
Is there enough raw material supplies to enable 25% annual growth rate for next 10 years?
Or how many years of 10% growth is it good for?
How high is the ceiling exactly? Answer in GWh or keep quiet.
Most of your questions can easily be answered if you did a modest amount of research. Joe Lowry is one of the world's top experts on the lithium supply chain. He and others have refuted Morgan Stanley's assertion that Li prices will soon fall from their current historic highs because supply will ramp faster than demand.
“We said a few years ago that the present lithium price run will continue, and it has. It has, and it’s gone into a second phase now,” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Managing Director Simon Moores
told the Investing News Network at this year’s
Cathodes conference.
“Quite simply, there’s not enough supply to meet the demand, and the demand is increasing quicker than the supply is. Much, much quicker. Therefore, lithium’s price will remain strong for some time,” he added.
For his part, lithium expert Joe Lowry said in his
Lithium in Review report that “2017 was a year when virtually all the positive surprises were on the demand side and most of the negative surprises were on the supply side.”
Projections of EV ramp over 5 years, associated Li demand arising from that and the ramping of Li supply are all based on current data, assumptions and the knowledge of the analyst(s). Morgan Stanley both underestimates demand and overestimates ramping rate of supply.
Sadly, unrealistic analysis of the short term supply and demand has depressed the stock prices of many major and minor Li mining companies, undercutting their ability to attract the capital investment vitally needed for them to develop new supply sources.
Until you do some research on these topics you should be more circumspect about throwing around claims that reasonable concerts are just FUD.