Without getting too much into the weeds your total GWh looks about right to me. Obviously pretty big error bars around that ....
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Without getting too much into the weeds your total GWh looks about right to me. Obviously pretty big error bars around that ....
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The following is carebare trolling?
"It seems like 2020 is going to be a year of temporary growth stall, but it'll jump right back to crazy growth once China GF3 and Europe GF4 comes online starting in 2021. I'm hoping Elon Musk is actually starting to be conservative and plans to beat that timeline. Elon seemed to have slipped up when claiming 750k vehicles is possible in 2020 because Shanghai will help out."
One year stall before crazy growth resumes?
There has to more than lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
There has to be enough extra battery grade lithium carbonate, cobalt sulfate, and nickel sulfate to make a jump in battery production. Remember in 2012 the entire world produced 33 GWh of lithium ion rechargeable batteries. GF1 will be producing at the rate of 35 GWh by the end of the year. There is a big jump in the minerals required.
Tesla is working on eliminating cobalt sulfate but it hasn't eliminated it yet.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Cool. So we've got revenue ramping from $11.68B in 2017 to $136B in 2023, CAGR 50%. Meanwhile battery supply ramps from about 10GWh to 242GWh, CAGR 70%.
This is a bit suprising to me that the battery supply needs to grow substantially faster than revenue. Indeed revenue per kWh goes from about $1,168/kWh to $562/kWh. This is also the sort of challenge that any true competitor to Tesla faces, how to increase kWh per revenue.
All those things are compounds. The chemical formulas are (if my high school chemistry serves me correctly):
LiCO3
CoSO3
NiSO3
Although cobalt is the lowest in current production, cobalt sulfate and the others are definitely NOT in short supply at any level of worldwide battery production.
So yes, it's care-bearing, or a lack of understanding of which raw materials are in actual short supply, and how Tesla's actions mitigate the issue.
Thanks to who posted this: Audi-Elektroauto: Der Anspruch muss "mindestens 500 Kilometer" sein - ecoment.de (translation: Google Translate)
What I found interesting:
"We go to 150 kilowatts - more is currently not technically possible. In the long term, Audi is aiming for 300 to 350 kilowatts of charging power for electric car charging times of 10 to 15 minutes."
300-350kW would certainly be the same standard as Porsche's Taycan.
What I found interesting:
"We go to 150 kilowatts - more is currently not technically possible. In the long term, Audi is aiming for 300 to 350 kilowatts of charging power for electric car charging times of 10 to 15 minutes."
300-350kW would certainly be the same standard as Porsche's Taycan.
It's likely to be a partially stepped increase with large increases aligned with increased ehicle production and smaller increases due to battery/ solar increases.
I also think we need to apply Elons time dilation field to some of these projects. What are the chances Tesla hits volume production at a new factory exactly when planned? I wouldn't bet my house on it.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The problem is not which materials are in short supply but which will be in short supply shortly. Not simply ceramic or steel production grade but EV battery grade materials.
After Tesla is producing over 35 GWh per year and moving to 50 GWh and the entire Chinese automobile industry needs to produce 10% of vehicles as new energy vehicles. And since FCEV sales will be microscopic that means ~2.5M Chinese BEVs sold in 2019 instead of 600k in 2017.
Unlike yourself it seems Musk is concerned.
No, musk is not concerned, he has a plan and contracts. He sees problems and solves them.
Carebears and fudsters are realy concerend though...
Carebears and fudsters are realy concerend though...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
According to the last conference call Musk is concerned.
That is one of limits to annual growth as you go from selling 100k EVs to 1M EVs to 2.5M EVs.
That there are enough resources in the ground does not mean there is no concern about mining them, refining them, and delivering them to battery factories.
He has a plan and that plan is evolving.
Because it is a concern. Tesla has multiple contracts with mineral majors and minors. Some of the minors may actually deliver minerals and some may not. Hell, some of the majors may not deliver. Tesla contracted some of leading worldwide experts in automotive manufacturing to set up the Model 3 manufacturing lines. And they failed spectacularly. Then Tesla had to do the work over again in house.
If there was no concern there would be no plan.
Just call Joe Schmo Cobalt in the Congo and order a gazillian tons of battery grade cobalt when you need it.
Just call Joe Schmo Lithium in Chile and order a gazillian tons of battery grade lithium for just in time delivery.
Just call Joe Schmo Nickel in Canada and order a gazillian tons of battery grade nickel for just in time delivery.
Buy you can't just order enough materials for 1M EVs the same way Panasonic did in 2012 for 2500 Model S.
I guess one can live in Fantasyland where there has been orders of magnitude overcapacity to supply battery grade minerals sitting idle just waiting for Tesla and Chinese EV automakers to call. And maybe VW Group too.
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The Tesla Smear
What is the point of pointing out they cannot "just order enough materials for 1M EV"?
By pointing out and repeating such obvious things you portray the company as not capable of needed foresight and thus running into a supply wall.
It has been said gazillion times already: It's the Batteries, Stupid!
If there is anybody who is deeply aware of all the gory details of supply chain and raw materials procurement, I trust it is Tesla. I also fully trust they are doing everything possible to secure as much resources as possible as soon as possible and needed.
Concern shows disbelief in them doing their job.
Being invested in a company and not believing they are doing their job does not rhyme ...
What is the point of pointing out they cannot "just order enough materials for 1M EV"?
By pointing out and repeating such obvious things you portray the company as not capable of needed foresight and thus running into a supply wall.
It has been said gazillion times already: It's the Batteries, Stupid!
If there is anybody who is deeply aware of all the gory details of supply chain and raw materials procurement, I trust it is Tesla. I also fully trust they are doing everything possible to secure as much resources as possible as soon as possible and needed.
Concern shows disbelief in them doing their job.
Being invested in a company and not believing they are doing their job does not rhyme ...
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For anyone who is too close to the pain, the parody may seem misplaced but it does serve to undermine the blind faith in authority that any new dictator would rely on. As such, the amount of parody and satire permissible in any given country is an indicator of how democratic that country is.
I invite you to visit
Parody - Wikipedia
- the chosen topmost illustration is quite telling.
As I said, if you're concerned about supply, then you've been reading too much FUD.
Lithium carbonate (Tesla uses ~65kg per pack = 32.5 kilo-tons per 1million EV's): Global and China Lithium Carbonate Market 2018: In 2017, China Reported the Lithium Carbonate Output of 123.4kt While Apparent Consumption of 127kt, Leaving a Supply Gap of 33kt
"In 2018, global lithium supply will outstrip 250kt (lithium carbonate) because of the continuous production of the two Australian mines and the expected release of 20kt/a Phase II (lithium carbonate) of Albemarle's La Negra. There are more than 20 lithium capacity expansion and new construction projects around the globe, which are built to meet the soaring lithium demand. Rocskill predicts the global lithium capacity of nearly 447kt/a (lithium carbonate) in 2025."
Current supply of cobalt is as a by-product of nickel and copper mining, and in roughly the same ratio as that needed in the batteries. So solve the nickel supply, and you'll solve the cobalt one as well ... or you can mine cobalt more directly.
Nickel sulfate: Nickel Sulphate — Market Report — Roskill
"uses of nickel in batteries have thus far not exceed 4% of total consumption, even despite the use of NiMH batteries in several hybrid models, such as the Toyota Prius. ... However, the availability of suitable, high-grade raw materials may depend not only on increased production, but also on the reduced consumption of the stainless steel industry of these products, ... " (2/3rd's of nickel production goes into stainless steel)
So without opening any new mines, simply by reducing the stainless steel production by 7%, there will be enough nickel to double the world's battery production from 2017 levels.
It's not fantasyland, it's supply and demand. The raw materials for battery production don't always have to be freshly extracted, it can simply be given priority over other uses (via higher prices paid).
While I am fascinated by the videos, there is no reason to be concerned at this point. All manufacturers have lots like this and bigger near manufacturing plants and distribution hubs. At most we can clearly see there is a lot of scope for improved efficiency. But that's par for the course with Tesla. They barely have competition so they don't really need to be as efficient as the others. Look, one of the points where shorts are actually correct is that bulls often severely underestimate the difficulty and time it takes to ramp up. Logistics is the same thing. That lot will not clear itself out in a few days. A good metric to watch is guidance from Tesla in terms of deliveries outpacing production by the end of this quarter.
Sean Wagner
Member
I don't know how this fits into the larger picture of Tesla's supply, but these guys should be knowledgeable about the industry at least:
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (@benchmarkmin), a global price data provider for the lithium-ion, solid state battery supply chain.
So, a bit of data via a tweet:
Simon Moores @sdmoores
Glencore’s cobalt ramp will be the biggest influence on cobalt price and industry over th next 12 months.
How will Glencore decided to play it? @benchmarkmin @CDMRawles
Glencore increases cobalt production by almost a third after restarting output at its Katanga unit Glencore Sees Big Jump in Cobalt Supply From Congo Mines
1:24 AM - 31 Jul 2018
Simon Moores on Twitter
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (@benchmarkmin), a global price data provider for the lithium-ion, solid state battery supply chain.
So, a bit of data via a tweet:
Simon Moores @sdmoores
Glencore’s cobalt ramp will be the biggest influence on cobalt price and industry over th next 12 months.
How will Glencore decided to play it? @benchmarkmin @CDMRawles
Glencore increases cobalt production by almost a third after restarting output at its Katanga unit Glencore Sees Big Jump in Cobalt Supply From Congo Mines
1:24 AM - 31 Jul 2018
Simon Moores on Twitter
Let me debunk shorts&bears thesis on "too much Model 3 cars" on the Lathrop lot.
I use to work as a young engineer in the automotive industry at both, the supply car parts company and in car manufacturer company.
Let's try to calculate the minimum number of Model 3 cars at Tesla lot and at transit for production of 5k / per week. To simplify the calculation, let assume that demand is uniform for all colors and Tesla produces only one color during a day, assembling all version that is ordered for that color. It is clear that number needed is about 60% of weekly production at lot at any moment, to be possible to send needed specification of cars versions. Practically every day the lot run out of an color. Additionally, especially during the constant rump of production, for a lot of reasons as short (love that word) supply of parts, additional QA , inconsistent shade of color etc..., lets add 700 cars more. So minimal number of cars at lot should be about 60% of 5000 plus 700 =3700.
Let's consider delivering Model 3 to TX, without considering delivery to another states which don`t allow Tesla to sell directly . Reportedly is about 500-600 contract on hold, so add some 800 cars at lot only for Texas, which increase number of cars at lot to 4500. I assume that 20 % cars is delivered directly from Fremont factory. Also, delivery by train to East coast (assuming 40 % of total production) requires another smaller lot at railway station of about 600 cars (40 wagons x 15 cars).
The numbers of cars at every lot :
Lathrop lot 3600
Fremont lot 900
Railway lot 600
Total at lots: 5100 cars
The minimum number of cars in transport for truck delivering is 3 days x 700 cars = 2100 and for railway transportation should be 8 days x 40% x 700 cars= cca 2200.
Total in transportation 4300 car.
Total cars in transit should be about 5100+4300=9400 cars at very lower end.
Anything under 10K Model 3 in transit at the end of Q3 would be great success for Tesla.
I use to work as a young engineer in the automotive industry at both, the supply car parts company and in car manufacturer company.
Let's try to calculate the minimum number of Model 3 cars at Tesla lot and at transit for production of 5k / per week. To simplify the calculation, let assume that demand is uniform for all colors and Tesla produces only one color during a day, assembling all version that is ordered for that color. It is clear that number needed is about 60% of weekly production at lot at any moment, to be possible to send needed specification of cars versions. Practically every day the lot run out of an color. Additionally, especially during the constant rump of production, for a lot of reasons as short (love that word) supply of parts, additional QA , inconsistent shade of color etc..., lets add 700 cars more. So minimal number of cars at lot should be about 60% of 5000 plus 700 =3700.
Let's consider delivering Model 3 to TX, without considering delivery to another states which don`t allow Tesla to sell directly . Reportedly is about 500-600 contract on hold, so add some 800 cars at lot only for Texas, which increase number of cars at lot to 4500. I assume that 20 % cars is delivered directly from Fremont factory. Also, delivery by train to East coast (assuming 40 % of total production) requires another smaller lot at railway station of about 600 cars (40 wagons x 15 cars).
The numbers of cars at every lot :
Lathrop lot 3600
Fremont lot 900
Railway lot 600
Total at lots: 5100 cars
The minimum number of cars in transport for truck delivering is 3 days x 700 cars = 2100 and for railway transportation should be 8 days x 40% x 700 cars= cca 2200.
Total in transportation 4300 car.
Total cars in transit should be about 5100+4300=9400 cars at very lower end.
Anything under 10K Model 3 in transit at the end of Q3 would be great success for Tesla.
Thanks for bringing this up. It makes a lot of sense.
I did work in SCM the last 25 years and can confirm your thought process to be fully correct. (not arguing numbers here)
In fact with each region they add to deliver, new specification or variant of the cars, higher production rate as such and other factors we will experience higher in transit inventory (in lots, on trains and trucks and ships, in stores ect.). Thats a consequence of growth and complexity increase. IOW be prepare that the numbers in lots will grow as Tesla grows.
If I would see that number shrinking I would be severely concerned for several reasons.
Shorts will and do put the argument out that a higher number of cars in lots mean low demand e.g. Spiegel. Thats a testimony for me that they understand absolutely nothing.
People call me an expert in that processes and I can confirm it is the other way around.
You are welcome.
The numbers at the post are assumptions based on logic.
It is very interesting that total number of all Model 3 versions in production at this moment are: colors (7) x drives(3) x enteriors(2) x wheels(2) = 84!
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08/06/1533575544000/Tesla--a-strange-case-of-credits/
Does anyone know what the $50m of non ZEV automotive credits were in this quarters 10k were?
Does anyone know what the $50m of non ZEV automotive credits were in this quarters 10k were?
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