General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I share your view on the Saudis in terms of terrorism, women and human rights as well as some other that I don't want to go into here because it does not belong here.

Understand that you don't trust them which is a fair statement as well.

Nevertheless this is about financing the transition to a sustainable world. Would I accept money from an institution of country that has behaved before badly be it politically or environmentally? Of course I would as the investment makes my mission more likely to succeed.

If we start trying to distinguish between good and bad money than we open a box of worms.

About the trustworthiness. Your statement is certainly true in terms of business you do in SA but not if we talk about a company listed at Nasdaq. They have to play by the rules otherwise there are enough instruments to make them to.

Yeah, but the thing is, Tesla *won't* be listed if the deal goes through...

If the Saudi stock is non-voting I'll be a lot happier. That will eliminate most issues of control. The Saudis may have a large profit stake but if they have no chance of control, it'll help reassure me.

 

[NicoV]

So it's the Saudis.

This means I'm voting no. I simply don't trust them. That said, the deal will probably sail through, since the major investment banks don't care that the Saudi leaders are massive war criminals and promote terrorism and oppression of women worldwide. Not to mention when they locked rich investors in a hotel and shook them down for money -- Mr. Musk had better never visit Saudi Arabia. Just don't ever go into the country.

I still have to decide how much to keep, but this means I'll go on the low end. The Saudis are untrustworthy, which makes the downside of staying in much larger. We'll see what the minimum is to stay in, but I'm planning to keep much less than I was before I found out it was the Saudis.

I have my doubts about the Saudi’s too, but remembered this: Pecunia non olet - Wikipedia

If you have doubts about the Saudi’s, maybe it’s better to get as much TSLAP as possible, every share you get is one the the Saudi’s don’t get.

 

[avoigt]

Quite astonished to see that piece from Bloomberg.....

 

[Intl Professor]

Let's look at the deal from the Saudi perspective. Obviously for the Sovereign Wealth Fund diversification is a fiduciary obligation. From the overall economy's sake diversification is required as well and underway. Also important is concern for displaced workers, especially in regions where Shia are a larger portion of the population. If memory serves, Shia are concentrated along the coast in oil producing heartland. That would be a nice location for a Gigafactory, also location of a community college. Then the country could give up its ill-fated military imperialism for sheer positive economic might and leading position locally for export of solar technology. Same goes for other Gulf states.

Traditional support for Wahhabism is justified to appease the masses so they ignore the massive maldistribution of wealth to the family and its friends. Providing for the welfare of the people through education and employment in a time of disruption should be de rigueur. Hence religious fanaticism less needed.

Israel also has an opportunity here but with the same impediment.

 

[mikevbf]

Quite astonished to see that piece from Bloomberg.....

I love the end of the interview where Abagnale, says somethings like: (paraphrasing) who is the consumer looking for an all electric vehicle going to go with, the company that says I am not quite sure or the company that is all in?

 

[Ocelot]

Well, after reading the blog post, I am not fully convinced, Elon did not act impulsively. Unless its in hand, in writing why say anything. I disagree strongly with his word choice, and the subsequent chaos it has caused. Do not get me wrong, suing over this is ridiculous. But saying you will be profitable q3, q4, and wow look shareholders will get 20 per cent, and look who my new partner is, is kinda ridiculous as well.

 

[replicant]

Well, after reading the blog post, I am not fully convinced, Elon did not act impulsively. Unless its in hand, in writing why say anything. I disagree strongly with his word choice, and the subsequent chaos it has caused. Do not get me wrong, suing over this is ridiculous. But saying you will be profitable q3, q4, and wow look shareholders will get 20 per cent, and look who my new partner is, is kinda ridiculous as well.

In the blog post, he says he met with the FIP on July 31rst "after the Saudi fund bought almost 5% of Tesla stock through the public markets". But did he know this at the time of the meeting (before / during) or did he learn about it days later from FT?

If the latter, I doubt the tweet was impulsive. If the former, he might have feared that the Saudi would get around Elon's refusal and get their way in through an hostile take-over. At that point, he might have said "Better have KSA on my side and keep control, than fight them head on. Let's go private".

Edit: removed potentially inappropriate gif (the fear of the mods... ) Mod: good move --ggr

 

[ggies07]

Quite astonished to see that piece from Bloomberg.....

When I heard his last statement,

"If you're a consumer, and you're going to buy an electric vehicle, who are you going to buy it from? The company that's all in or the company that is well, I'm not so sure....."

I was like:

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

You problem is in understanding what Tesla is worth. No one will pay 60 billion for Tesla. To remain a bull you need to avoid this understanding.

This is from 4 weeks ago. Hilarious!

 

[brian45011]

Also important is concern for displaced workers, especially in regions where Shia are a larger portion of the population.

May have subsequently changed, but when I worked in that region:

-the professionals were invariably western "ex-pats";

-the clerical/technical/merchant support was primarily from India and Pakistan (often the under-compensated "infra-structure" that allowed the system to work), and

-the artisan/skilled craftsmen were sourced based on the required level of skill

-crane and heavy equipment operators were usually "ex-pats,"

-higher-skilled crafts like welders/electricians/instrument techs/etc. from places like the Philippines, India, Pakistan, etc. and

-lesser skilled crafts like masons, pipe-fitters, laborers, etc from regional Muslim countries like Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and even Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, etc.

-as a sop to the conscience of the sheiks, there were local "guards" -- but they either slept or prayed all day.
​

TL/DR: very few displaced indigenous workers in oil kingdoms. To stay in power, the rulers in that region need funds for the life-styles of the natives who do not work.

 

[brian45011]

Your post in the thread General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable was deleted. Reason: Something weird about the link. Repost if you want to figure it out and correct it.

TWIMC: Nothing wrong with the link, I check the links are valid after I hit "post reply." Did you have an issue with the content of the post or just the link?

 

[ggr]

Your post in the thread General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable was deleted. Reason: Something weird about the link. Repost if you want to figure it out and correct it.

TWIMC: Nothing wrong with the link, I check the links are valid after I hit "post reply." Did you have an issue with the content of the post or just the link?

Mod: It had multiple redirects that led to a 404 somwhere:

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[brian45011]

Mod: It had multiple redirects that led to a 404 somwhere:

So why not just delete the link? e.g. General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

The link was to "
“It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that ain't true.”

I've clicked on multiple links here that failed and numerous others that were behind pay walls; some how, none of those were removed by moderators.

 

[Skryll]

Tesla | Electrek
Got a call here in Germany from Tesla this Saturday. [...] the S is lacking demand right now but expects that this will change once the 3 is out here as well about end of Q1 next year. Confirmed Germany will get preference in Europe and should be a country that gets early delivery.

I think this has more to do with people waiting on the messed up german EV incentive system to not screw over tesla buyers. Also germans are less likely to spend a fortune on a car, Model 3 is a lot more reasonable in cost/performance than Model S, if you can do without biohazard mode and liftgate hatchback. Its basically half the cost of a comparable Model S.

 

[Skryll]

How you expect them to change if all their future relies on fossil stuff? Maybe supporting a company like Tesla is a good start?

Wonder where this fits in SoftBank’s Mega Solar Deal in Saudi Arabia Faces a Rocky Future

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Honestly, as a bull, I’m extremely disappointed in Elon. Doing what he did on Twitter was dumb and short sighted for so many reasons.

1) it gives all his leverage away in negotiations with Saudis. Now, the Saudis can ask for little to no restrictions on a private investment and Elon is backed into a corner since he said funding secured and investor support confirmed.
2) Guys, funding was not secured. I have not doubt that it CAN BE secured... but it wasn’t at the time. If he waited until after market hours and wrote a blog like what was published I think that would be fine. But he had to open his Twitter and act hastily.
3) the piece that I am most frustrated with is how little he cares for us Longs. As other people have mentioned, the only plausible explanation was the stock price was moving too high too quickly and the private premium was going to be too low to take it private. Or else, he could have waited until markets close. I’ve waited five years for stock to significantly appreciate. Five long years of supporting the company through very thin times, with countless amounts of FUD. Just as it’s going up, because it interferes with Elon’s plans of going private, he would rip those gains from us?

Honestly, what he did was at the very least reckless (as waiting until after market hours is a low barrier he should meet), but he really doesn’t care about our interests. I don’t think he realizes how irresponsible it is to preach messages about helping transition the world to sustainable energy and encouraging us to invest along with, yet treating our financial well being as secondary. For us, we are going all in with him. But for him to do what he did recently is absolutely unacceptable, and as shareholders we need to let him know that.

 

[Yuri_G]

Elon Musk on Twitter

"I’m excited to work with Silver Lake and Goldman Sachs as financial advisors, plus Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz and Munger, Tolles & Olson as legal advisors, on the proposal to take Tesla private"

 

[Vitold]

Honestly, as a bull, I’m extremely disappointed in Elon. Doing what he did on Twitter was dumb and short sighted for so many reasons.

1) it gives all his leverage away in negotiations with Saudis. Now, the Saudis can ask for little to no restrictions on a private investment and Elon is backed into a corner since he said funding secured and investor support confirmed.
2) Guys, funding was not secured. I have not doubt that it CAN BE secured... but it wasn’t at the time. If he waited until after market hours and wrote a blog like what was published I think that would be fine. But he had to open his Twitter and act hastily.
3) the piece that I am most frustrated with is how little he cares for us Longs. As other people have mentioned, the only plausible explanation was the stock price was moving too high too quickly and the private premium was going to be too low to take it private. Or else, he could have waited until markets close. I’ve waited five years for stock to significantly appreciate. Five long years of supporting the company through very thin times, with countless amounts of FUD. Just as it’s going up, because it interferes with Elon’s plans of going private, he would rip those gains from us?

Honestly, what he did was at the very least reckless (as waiting until after market hours is a low barrier he should meet), but he really doesn’t care about our interests. I don’t think he realizes how irresponsible it is to preach messages about helping transition the world to sustainable energy and encouraging us to invest along with, yet treating our financial well being as secondary. For us, we are going all in with him. But for him to do what he did recently is absolutely unacceptable, and as shareholders we need to let him know that.

No. No. No.
He announced because Saudis are going for 20% stake- if he did not they would get the stock around 300.

Announcement levels playing field and includes retail investors in the process.

Musk plays both roles, Tesla boardand member/CEO and an investor. Both can make different decisions.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

No. No. No.
He announced because Saudis are going for 20% stake- if he did not they would get the stock around 300.

Announcement levels playing field and includes retail investors in the process.

Musk plays both roles, Tesla boardand member/CEO and an investor. Both can make different decisions.

He couldn’t wait six hours and avoid the SEC???

 

[Vitold]

He couldn’t wait six hours and avoid the SEC???

If he was not Elon Musk he may have. I am not sure what it would get us.