General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I'm thoroughly convinced as are others, this will be known as the Chinese century just as ours was labelled for the last.

My father agrees, and says he was told this by a wise historian back in the 1950s.

 

[AWDtsla]

Everything else equal yes, but more from a local environment point of view than a global environment point of view.

However, Tesla cars are not among the more sustainable cars, neither among the EVs or cars in general.

However, it's also a question of which model of transport and urbanism that should be promoted and invested in. We all agree that things need to change.

If that change is an increased modal share of mass transit, that is superior to replacing VW Golfs with Model 3s.

Part of Tesla's and Musk's mission is quite clearly to fight against public transportation and such a change.



No one's talked in absolutes.

We're not getting rid of cars, and packing everyone in to dense urban areas like sardines, get over yourself.

Replacing the entire automotive fleet by Tesla's powered by non-carbon emitting power is perfectly sustainable.

Why don't you practice putting genies back in bottles, because you'll need the practice.

 

[avoigt]

Just in case your neighbor tells you that EVs catch fire and are dangerous. In that moment you may want to send the below today German headline.

VW recalls 700,000 Tiguan and Touran because of risk to catch fire.

VW-Rückruf: 700 000 Tiguan und Touran betroffen


Volkswagen ruft Tiguan und Touran wegen Brandgefahr zurück - manager magazin

Just sayin....

 

[bhtooefr]

Ultimately, I feel that we can urbanize a lot more than we currently are, especially with the right pressures applied.

There are a lot of people (especially younger people) who actually want to urbanize. They see suburbs and rural areas as inconvenient (you can't just walk to places, you have to get in the car and drive places) and culturally stifling. In some cases, they can't afford urban living due to the costs, but this isn't something inherent to urban areas - if you follow development patterns like those practiced in Japan, you can have vibrant urban areas with reasonable costs of living. (Also, the suburbs were specifically designed to coddle some toxic elements of American culture, and those same elements are prevalent in the rural areas nowadays, and many people want to get away from that.)

For those unable to drive, properly designed urban areas with accessible infrastructure for vulnerable road users as well as mass transit provide freedoms far greater than suburban and rural areas.

And, in urban areas, cars are dangerous, of dubious value most of the time, and harm those using more sustainable modes of transportation (both through direct conflict between cars and vulnerable road users, and through land and financial resources being directed towards cars (roads and parking), rather than making urban areas livable).

So, the biggest way that I can see Tesla (let's set Boring Company aside here for now, that's a separate business) as being in opposition to sustainability is... Autopilot, actually. Self driving is often presented as the solution to mobility for those unable to drive (not just Tesla's FSD, other developers are hyped similarly). However, self-driving cars take just as much space as non-self-driving cars (even if they're parking further away, this actually increases traffic volume, and traffic volume will still be high even with platooned self-driving cars during rush hours), the concern for vulnerable road users seems to be insufficient (with people in the self-driving industry calling for things like mandating that bicycles have beacons, or just banning them from the road entirely), and then there's the cost question. Proponents of self-driving as the solution to mobility basically propose a taxi-like model, but that can be incredibly expensive, even if you're using cheap solar and no labor to drive the car! There's quite a few people who would be better served by mass transit as well as lower-impact personal transportation like cycling and walking.

At the same time, though, the reality is that there are a lot of people who will simply never give up a home in the suburbs or in rural areas, badly served or not served at all by mass transit, and they'll need to drive to get places. And, I'd rather that be in an electric vehicle with almost no carbon footprint.

 

[AWDtsla]

Ultimately, I feel that we can urbanize a lot more than we currently are, especially with the right pressures applied.

There are a lot of people (especially younger people) who actually want to urbanize. They see suburbs and rural areas as inconvenient (you can't just walk to places, you have to get in the car and drive places) and culturally stifling. In some cases, they can't afford urban living due to the costs, but this isn't something inherent to urban areas - if you follow development patterns like those practiced in Japan, you can have vibrant urban areas with reasonable costs of living. (Also, the suburbs were specifically designed to coddle some toxic elements of American culture, and those same elements are prevalent in the rural areas nowadays, and many people want to get away from that.)

For those unable to drive, properly designed urban areas with accessible infrastructure for vulnerable road users as well as mass transit provide freedoms far greater than suburban and rural areas.

And, in urban areas, cars are dangerous, of dubious value most of the time, and harm those using more sustainable modes of transportation (both through direct conflict between cars and vulnerable road users, and through land and financial resources being directed towards cars (roads and parking), rather than making urban areas livable).

So, the biggest way that I can see Tesla (let's set Boring Company aside here for now, that's a separate business) as being in opposition to sustainability is... Autopilot, actually. Self driving is often presented as the solution to mobility for those unable to drive (not just Tesla's FSD, other developers are hyped similarly). However, self-driving cars take just as much space as non-self-driving cars (even if they're parking further away, this actually increases traffic volume, and traffic volume will still be high even with platooned self-driving cars during rush hours), the concern for vulnerable road users seems to be insufficient (with people in the self-driving industry calling for things like mandating that bicycles have beacons, or just banning them from the road entirely), and then there's the cost question. Proponents of self-driving as the solution to mobility basically propose a taxi-like model, but that can be incredibly expensive, even if you're using cheap solar and no labor to drive the car! There's quite a few people who would be better served by mass transit as well as lower-impact personal transportation like cycling and walking.

At the same time, though, the reality is that there are a lot of people who will simply never give up a home in the suburbs or in rural areas, badly served or not served at all by mass transit, and they'll need to drive to get places. And, I'd rather that be in an electric vehicle with almost no carbon footprint.

Bringing this up in regards to Tesla serves absolutely no purpose other than to try and kill demand for Tesla. How convenient that now multiple low-post-count users are piling on this bandwagon.

If you really hate cars, go after Uber/Lyft, because they've done more to shift urban dwellers from awful public transport into cars around urban areas than anyone else. EVERYONE hates public transport, especially daily users, except for a handful of idealogues who want to dictate what everyone should do.

This does not belong in a discussion about Tesla, Tesla's production of cars is struggling to be little more than a rounding error on the amount of new cars produced globally in 2018.

TL;DR Go away.

 

[avoigt]

Marques Brownlee on Twitter


Marques Brownlee‏

Verified account @MKBHD
Coming soon to a sub box near you...

0:18
49.1K views
7:07 AM - 20 Aug 2018

 

[bhtooefr]

Bringing this up in regards to Tesla serves absolutely no purpose other than to try and kill demand for Tesla. How convenient that now multiple low-post-count users are piling on this bandwagon.

Uh, I'm long, and hoping to hold at least part of my position in the go-private, because I think Tesla is net good for society. I may have reservations about some things, but overall, I think they're good. (Proof that I'm long. I know, it's a small position, but it's also most of my portfolio (and a good part of the remaining few percent is cash that's backing a limit buy...))

If you really hate cars, go after Uber/Lyft, because they've done more to shift urban dwellers from awful public transport into cars around urban areas than anyone else. EVERYONE hates public transport, especially daily users, except for a handful of idealogues who want to dictate what everyone should do.

Who says that I don't go after Uber and Lyft? I think they're atrocious on basically every level, abusing their workers, causing massive traffic issues, and generally being extremely irresponsible.

No, not everyone hates public transport. There's actually quite a few people who love having it (and there's public transit systems in North America (where public transit is frankly not good) that have positive public sentiment on social media), so knock it off with the hyperbole.

This does not belong in a discussion about Tesla, Tesla's production of cars is struggling to be little more than a rounding error on the amount of new cars produced globally in 2018.

TL;DR Go away.

Two factors here.

First, Tesla is poised to become a much higher portion of the market, as their production ramps. (But, as long as they're displacing the existing fleet, I'm perfectly fine with this.) Second, Tesla Network is Tesla's upcoming attempt to compete with Uber and Lyft, two services that you yourself said that I should have a problem with.

And, as an actual investor in Tesla (who's only sold one share, every other TSLA transaction I've done has been a buy), no, I'm not going away.

 

[AWDtsla]

Uh, I'm long, and hoping to hold at least part of my position in the go-private, because I think Tesla is net good for society. I may have reservations about some things, but overall, I think they're good. (Proof that I'm long. I know, it's a small position, but it's also most of my portfolio (and a good part of the remaining few percent is cash that's backing a limit buy...))

So NOW is a good time to say how awful Tesla is because they make cars?

No, not everyone hates public transport. There's actually quite a few people who love having it (and there's public transit systems in North America (where public transit is frankly not good) that have positive public sentiment on social media), so knock it off with the hyperbole.

Your own link shows that everyone hates it. Overall sentiment 48% negative and 3% positive? That's going to be your evidence? I don't know of a single public transportation user who doesn't have some horror story about using it. Social media virtue signalling is irrelevant. Users are flocking towards Uber for a good reason. Believe it or not, in this area the free market is perfectly functional. If you REALLY believe that public transportation is the right thing to do, your only option is to make public transportation better. It is not right to tear down Tesla/Uber/etc by dictate because you believe you know what's right.

 

[bhtooefr]

I'm saying that 3-10% is not insignificant, and not "everyone" hating it. You're being hyperbolic about this.

And there's plenty of Uber/Lyft horror stories, too, including people actually dying because of Uber/Lyft drivers.

As far as making public transit better, I advocate for that! It's not easy, though, partially because we're in a society that thinks that large public works projects that benefit everyone are evil communism, and only those that benefit those already well off are worth doing. And, sometimes inferior competing technologies that benefit the rich more get the investment instead (see The Boring Company displacing more effective public transit systems).

But, as I've said again and again, overall, my big reservation with Tesla isn't the fact that they make cars. It's really their participation in the self-driving hype. Otherwise, they make cars (and energy products) that reduce the impact of existing usage models, and I applaud them for that, and hope that they're successful in displacing the rest of the automotive industry or converting it to electric. I invest in them as a result.

 

[AWDtsla]

I'm saying that 3-10% is not insignificant, and not "everyone" hating it. You're being hyperbolic about this.

LOL, ok. 3% liking it is meaningless. Not to mention, they're probably lying.

As far as making public transit better, I advocate for that! It's not easy, though, partially because we're in a society that thinks that large public works projects that benefit everyone are evil communism, and only those that benefit those already well off are worth doing.

Maybe it's more to do with the people advocating for it aren't actually doing anything to make it better, they just want to tear down the alternative. Case in point.

Public transport gets enormous subsidies, with enormous budgets that somehow manage to still run at a loss. This is clearly an administration problem. Go do something about it.

 

[bhtooefr]

Roads get enormous subsidies, too - if you included the actual costs of roads (outside of what fuel taxes and sometimes registration fees pay for) in car transportation costs, cars and trucks would also be running at a steep loss, too.

And, running at a loss isn't necessarily a bad thing! Maybe a society has decided that taxpayer subsidy of transportation for everyone is a net good?

 

[immunogold]

Proponents of self-driving as the solution to mobility basically propose a taxi-like model, but that can be incredibly expensive, even if you're using cheap solar and no labor to drive the car! T

I realize that you are likely comparing autonomous taxis with mass transit when you state that autonomy “can be incredibly expensive.” Although there are likely sources claiming autonomy is more expensive than personal ownership, here are two sources who claim that autonomy is cheaper. These analyses include: lifetime of vehicle, maintenance, fuel, insurance, etc.

ARK Invest: “Driving a personal car costs roughly 70 cents per mile today. According to ARK’s research, autonomous taxis could charge roughly half that cost, saving on average $4,700 per driver per year.6” Autonomous Cars Could Add $7 Trillion to the US Economy

RethinkX: “All together, these changes will deliver transport by TaaS or TaaS Pool at a cost per mile that is four-to-10 times cheaper than purchasing a new car AND two-to-four times cheaper than operating (maintenance, fuel, and insurance) an existing vehicle.” Full Summary

 

[AWDtsla]

Roads get enormous subsidies, too - if you included the actual costs of roads (outside of what fuel taxes and sometimes registration fees pay for) in car transportation costs, cars and trucks would also be running at a steep loss, too.

And, running at a loss isn't necessarily a bad thing! Maybe a society has decided that taxpayer subsidy of transportation for everyone is a net good?

You misunderstand me. I have no problems with public funding for these projects. The point was that it's already well funded, and it's horrible. It's not money that's the problem.

 

[Ugliest1]

Right, so neither car infrastructure nor mass transit infrastructure builds itself. It requires pooled investments from society.

Investing in public transit in densely populated areas is the most sensible and profitable public investment you can make. But by many car promoters, it's referred to as mind control and forced re-education, as if a society choosing to focus on one mode of transport over the other it is enabling freedom while if it chooses to promote the other, it's doing mind control and re-education.

And it so happens that the latter is superior from a sustainable point of view and from a holistic point of view, as the negative externalities of private car use are well known and often goes unaccounted for.

And on this background, one goes on and on about how green and sustainable Tesla is. The hypocrisy is mind blowing.

Lol excuse me? When have I ever talked about Norway being the gold standard? I'm saying that if you look at the developed world, it's a noticeably big potential for improvement in the US when it comes to mass transit and denser living. Tesla is an american car company. There have for many years been attempts to increase investment in mass transit in the US, it's a political struggle. Tesla is in my view a threat to the momentum of this movement, who wants to promote more investment in mass transit and a more urban city model. It doesn't help that Mr. Musk himself regularly ridicules public transportation.

Since you mention it, I'm a ferocious advocate for spending on PT in Norway and in particular in Oslo. We do spend a lot on mass transit while I believe it should be even more. I disagree with many policies of the norwegian government and this is in no way an us vs them kind of thing.

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

There is no magic wand to get from here to perfection (i.e., mass transit in your view) instantly. Going EV is a step change positive and one that will help. I'm ok if some people think that's less than perfect.

 

[PRJIM]

Uh, I'm long, and hoping to hold at least part of my position in the go-private, because I think Tesla is net good for society. I may have reservations about some things, but overall, I think they're good. (Proof that I'm long. I know, it's a small position, but it's also most of my portfolio (and a good part of the remaining few percent is cash that's backing a limit buy...))


Who says that I don't go after Uber and Lyft? I think they're atrocious on basically every level, abusing their workers, causing massive traffic issues, and generally being extremely irresponsible.

No, not everyone hates public transport. There's actually quite a few people who love having it (and there's public transit systems in North America (where public transit is frankly not good) that have positive public sentiment on social media), so knock it off with the hyperbole.


Two factors here.

First, Tesla is poised to become a much higher portion of the market, as their production ramps. (But, as long as they're displacing the existing fleet, I'm perfectly fine with this.) Second, Tesla Network is Tesla's upcoming attempt to compete with Uber and Lyft, two services that you yourself said that I should have a problem with.

And, as an actual investor in Tesla (who's only sold one share, every other TSLA transaction I've done has been a buy), no, I'm not going away.

Why did you invest in UQM? They have been on the brink of BK for a while now

 

[MarcusMaximus]

see The Boring Company displacing more effective public transit systems

I’m a little confused. I’ve seen exactly two Boring Company projects actually moving anywhere: one that’s fully funded by... the Boring Company, and another that’s explicitly just for getting to a stadium. That aside, Boring Company essentially just makes(cheaper/faster) subways. How is that inferior vs other forms of public transportation?

 

[bhtooefr]

Why did you invest in UQM? They have been on the brink of BK for a while now

I tossed like $10 in as a speculative play, a while back, as well as to try to get some indirect exposure to Proterra through a supplier. If I lose the $10, oh well. If it takes off, yay.

(I'd rather invest directly in Proterra, though.)

 

[AWDtsla]

I’m a little confused. I’ve seen exactly two Boring Company projects actually moving anywhere: one that’s fully funded by... the Boring Company, and another that’s explicitly just for getting to a stadium. That aside, Boring Company essentially just makes(cheaper/faster) subways. How is that inferior vs other forms of public transportation?

Oh I missed that gem! Musk effectively has a public transportation company which threatens to outdo existing public transport. But it's still no good, because ???.

Not to mention that the envisioned use of on-road automation has been a autonomous minibus model.

 

[bhtooefr]

I’m a little confused. I’ve seen exactly two Boring Company projects actually moving anywhere: one that’s fully funded by... the Boring Company, and another that’s explicitly just for getting to a stadium. That aside, Boring Company essentially just makes(cheaper/faster) subways. How is that inferior vs other forms of public transportation?

Volume is far worse than real subways, though, and the stadium one is diverting public funds that could be directed towards more useful public transit routes.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Volume is far worse than real subways, though, and the stadium one is diverting public funds that could be directed towards more useful public transit routes.

From what I’ve seen of their plans, Volume on a single bus thingy is worse than a subway, but there’s FAR more of them in parallel tunnels and they travel at higher speeds, resulting in much higher volume across the whole system.