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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Basically every problem with Musk's Loop and Hyperloop schemes could be fixed by just using actual trains -- long, articulated vehicles with high capacity. He seems to have an extreme blind spot about this. It's weird because there's nothing particularly complicated about putting longer, articulated vehicles in the same system; it doesn't even cost more.

I want to sit him down for half an hour and explain this, because it seems to be an unusual and stupid blind spot.

What a dumb idea. Do you not understand the impact of autonomy here? A long articulated train is a substitute for navigation intelligence. All of a sudden you stop having to wait for the train, and the train goes where you want it to go. Both of which are real problems with a current subway.
 
What a dumb idea. Do you not understand the impact of autonomy here? A long articulated train is a substitute for navigation intelligence. All of a sudden you stop having to wait for the train, and the train goes where you want it to go. Both of which are real problems with a current subway.
Look, you've obviously never studied the topic. I know exactly what the impact of autonomy is. You don't. It gets tiring arguing with people who haven't done their research. You're engaging in magical thinking.

Bottom line is, whatever scheme you've devised, you can multiply the throughput at little-to-no added expense by using physically coupled trains. There aren't any counterexamples. FWIW, you can couple and uncouple en route if you do the coupling in a proper, modern manner.
 
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Bottom line is, whatever scheme you've devised, you can multiply the throughput at little-to-no added expense by using physically coupled trains. There aren't any counterexamples. FWIW, you can couple and uncouple en route if you do the coupling in a proper, modern manner.
There is zero difference in throughput from computer controlled caravan to one that's physically linked, given both are of equal size.

Of course in the autonomous case all things are not equal, it can change sizes dynamically, and the spacing between the trains need not be zero at all times either.

I can only read your argument as subways are perfect, why doesn't Musk just make a cheaper and faster subway. This is almost never the right engineering solution. It's like asking for a horse that eats and poops less. That should fix the traffic problem in 1900, great idea.
 
There is zero difference in throughput from computer controlled caravan to one that's physically linked, given both are of equal size.

Of course in the autonomous case all things are not equal, it can change sizes dynamically, and the spacing between the trains need not be zero at all times either.

I can only read your argument as subways are perfect, why doesn't Musk just make a cheaper and faster subway. This is almost never the right engineering solution. It's like asking for a horse that eats and poops less. That should fix the traffic problem in 1900, great idea.

I think @neroden 's point is that close coupling is more efficient. If Loop can do that (whether mechanically or softwarily), it will achieve a higher people transport rate/ utilization than if it does not.
 
upload_2018-8-21_10-24-19.png

LOOKING GOOD in Longville.
Nice weather for flying.

ITS UP 11 !
 
I think @neroden 's point is that close coupling is more efficient. If Loop can do that (whether mechanically or softwarily), it will achieve a higher people transport rate/ utilization than if it does not.
This is a non-problem. You can propose the same thing with roads too, if you could increase the bandwidth of all surface roads by 3x due to autonomy, would underground even be necessary? For large parts of the country I think the answer is no. You would only need tunnels in dense urban areas to keep pedestrian flows from interfering with autonomous transport flows.
 
Basically every problem with Musk's Loop and Hyperloop schemes could be fixed by just using actual trains -- long, articulated vehicles with high capacity.

That also introduces one, very large problem: you need long stations for those long trains. That dramatically limits the potential number of entry/exit points and requires dedicated long sections of track to handle guiding trains to/from those stations.

Having small, independent sections that aren’t tied together allows for vertical movement to street level parking-spot sized stations, and much smaller track sections to get to those stations. With a long train, you gain in capacity for individual trains, but you can’t practically have large numbers of parallel stations.
 
To get the thread back on track (no pun intended)

Last quarter we saw lots of deliveries to Canada. Anyone know if there are any deliveries happening in current quarter?

Yes. Case in point, I'm getting my M3 soon! Just got the financing stuff done.

But also, Tesla is planning on a big shipment to Canada in the next week or two. The reason is because Ontario is stopping their $14000 EV rebates, but it was done in a blatantly discriminatory method that singled out Tesla getting their rebates cut immediately from the announcement, but all other carmakers get another 2 months (ending Sept 10) before their rebate ends. Tesla has filed a lawsuit asking for expedited hearing against the government for discrimination, and they have a really strong suit. To see just how strong of a discrimination suit Tesla has, they have a direct quote from the Ministry of Transportation who said this:

“But we also were extremely fair in the way we ended it. On July 11th, we announced that until September 10th, all dealers and anyone who had purchased a vehicle or had a vehicle on order, as long as it was plated and delivered by September 10th, other than Tesla — they would receive their rebate.”

Also, when they first announced this, they said only EV's sold by a dealer gets a rebate until September 10th. This clearly singled out Tesla that doesn't sell through dealers. But when it was pointed out that Tesla stores are registered as dealers in Ontario, they CHANGED the wording to say "independent dealers" to exclude corporate owned dealers (like Tesla's).

It really doesn't get more blatantly and obviously discriminatory than this.

Tesla is expecting to win the suit and rush deliver a ton of M3's before the September 10th deadline for the rebate.
 
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Look, you've obviously never studied the topic. I know exactly what the impact of autonomy is. You don't. It gets tiring arguing with people who haven't done their research. You're engaging in magical thinking.

Bottom line is, whatever scheme you've devised, you can multiply the throughput at little-to-no added expense by using physically coupled trains. There aren't any counterexamples. FWIW, you can couple and uncouple en route if you do the coupling in a proper, modern manner.
I freely admit that I have done no research on the topic. However couldn't a series of pods be electronically linked and achieve the same result? Theoretically there should be little difference between a physical and electronic link if pods are in constant communication and all driven by electric drive trains with instant response.
 
Look, you've obviously never studied the topic. I know exactly what the impact of autonomy is. You don't. It gets tiring arguing with people who haven't done their research. You're engaging in magical thinking.

Bottom line is, whatever scheme you've devised, you can multiply the throughput at little-to-no added expense by using physically coupled trains. There aren't any counterexamples. FWIW, you can couple and uncouple en route if you do the coupling in a proper, modern manner.

Are you Sheldon Cooper in real life? :)
 
To get the thread back on track (no pun intended)



Yes. Case in point, I'm getting my M3 soon! Just got the financing stuff done.

But also, Tesla is planning on a big shipment to Canada in the next week or two. The reason is because Ontario is stopping their $14000 EV rebates, but it was done in a blatantly discriminatory method that singled out Tesla getting their rebates cut immediately from the announcement, but all other carmakers get another 2 months (ending Sept 10) before their rebate ends. Tesla has filed a lawsuit asking for expedited hearing against the government for discrimination, and they have a really strong suit. To see just how strong of a discrimination suit Tesla has, they have a direct quote from the Ministry of Transportation who said this:

“But we also were extremely fair in the way we ended it. On July 11th, we announced that until September 10th, all dealers and anyone who had purchased a vehicle or had a vehicle on order, as long as it was plated and delivered by September 10th, other than Tesla — they would receive their rebate.”

Also, when they first announced this, they said only EV's sold by a dealer gets a rebate until September 10th. This clearly singled out Tesla that doesn't sell through dealers. But when it was pointed out that Tesla stores are registered as dealers in Ontario, they CHANGED the wording to say "independent dealers" to exclude corporate owned dealers (like Tesla's).

It really doesn't get more blatantly and obviously discriminatory than this.

Tesla is expecting to win the suit and rush deliver a ton of M3's before the September 10th deadline for the rebate.

Thanks
I was hoping 0 deliveries to Canada, which would mean all deliveries to US and all models variations have demand backlog in US itself with the tax credits expiring in 6 mths.
But then they could have been inventory that was shipped to Canada before Q3, also makes sense to ship to Canada so that Ontario folks can also get theirs on time and get their tax credits.
~ Cheers
 
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I was hoping 0 deliveries to Canada, which would mean all deliveries to US and all models variations have demand backlog in US itself with the tax credits expiring in 6 mths.
But then they could have been inventory that was shipped to Canada before Q3, also makes sense to ship to Canada so that Ontario folks can also get theirs on time and get their tax credits.
~ Cheers
I am patiently waiting for my Model 3 performance dual motor here in BC - I'm glad you aren't in charge of scheduling! ;)
 
I think @neroden 's point is that close coupling is more efficient. If Loop can do that (whether mechanically or softwarily), it will achieve a higher people transport rate/ utilization than if it does not.
This is correct. The added point is that nobody's ever achieved close virtual coupling with software; it remains an unsolved problem. The *extra* added point is that it's actually more expensive to try to do it with software -- tons more sensors -- *and* substantially more fragile (less robust).

Gah, I suppose this should go over to the Boring Company thread. OK, last comment here.

I'll just add that long platforms are not in any sense a "problem" (in the extreme example, Chicago's State Street Subway has one continuous platform with various stopping points).

Frequent stops / exits are a problem, and they're a problem even if you're using point-to-point pods. The fundamental limiting factors on speed are acceleration/deceleration/merging, and more stations mean more acceleration/deceleration/merging no matter how small your pods are. A four-lane highway (passing lanes, acceleration ramps, deceleration ramps and all) has less throughput than a two-track railway *and* at high volumes it's slower (as well as taking up more space); putting the ramps closer together creates congestion (again, Chicago has this problem with its downtown expressways where the ramps are every block).

This is not rocket science. But apparently it's understood by fewer people than rocket science. :eyeroll:
 
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This is correct. The added point is that nobody's ever achieved close virtual coupling with software; it remains an unsolved problem. The *extra* added point is that it's actually more expensive to try to do it with software -- tons more sensors -- *and* substantially more fragile (less robust).

Gah, I suppose this should go over to the Boring Company thread. OK, last comment here.

I'll just add that long platforms are not in any sense a "problem" (in the extreme example, Chicago's State Street Subway has one continuous platform with various stopping points).

Frequent stops / exits are a problem, and they're a problem even if you're using point-to-point pods. The fundamental limiting factors on speed are acceleration/deceleration/merging, and more stations mean more acceleration/deceleration/merging no matter how small your pods are. A four-lane highway (passing lanes, acceleration ramps, deceleration ramps and all) has less throughput than a two-track railway *and* at high volumes it's slower (as well as taking up more space); putting the ramps closer together creates congestion (again, Chicago has this problem with its downtown expressways where the ramps are every block).

This is not rocket science. But apparently it's understood by fewer people than rocket science. :eyeroll:

A problem solved overnight by anyone that can deal with multiple robot kinematics in the factory. Complaining about sensors/etc - ugh. Model 3 level of complexity, where they throw in the camera's, sensors, DNN board, wifi/cell communications for free, letting you enable them by software upgrade only.

You're right it's not rocket science. Get the pods, the tunnel, and the hardware, and the software will get done. This is not "the long pole"
 
This is correct. The added point is that nobody's ever achieved close virtual coupling with software; it remains an unsolved problem. The *extra* added point is that it's actually more expensive to try to do it with software -- tons more sensors -- *and* substantially more fragile (less robust).


This is not rocket science. But apparently it's understood by fewer people than rocket science. :eyeroll:

I think it is not demonstrated at scale.
 
I think it is not demonstrated at scale.
They've been working on software platooning for over 50 years, and at this point are settling for having a carlength between every two pods in a platoon, and still haven't solved it reliably at scale. Hardware coupling just works, and it's cheap too. (Why use Flufferbot if you don't have to?)
 
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