General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shlokavica22]

Jeans and sneaker will not make the Mercedes cars sexy

That was pathetic. Part of scripted, dry presentation, generally out of touch, trying very hard to appeal as cool new tech.
The visuals ("chaotic" displays creating "3D" effect) and the music were the only good part.

Obviously style is personal preference, but the design (intentionally or unintentionally) of the car is worse than their current ICE range. The front is ugly, the back resembles Porsche).

Model X ,I-Pace, Taycan, all look better IMHO.

 

[neroden]

Sorry... but who still uses USB sticks for music in today's cloud based world?

Anyone who wants to listen to good music at high quality. Every audiophile.

I guess there aren't that many audiophiles.

My favorite music is not available on "the cloud" and even if it was the recordings would be compressed to low quality. Streaming FLAC is fairly high-bandwidth.

There probably are still music bugs because in terms of priorities for customers, that is way way way way down there.

I do appreciate the old school USB music stick though. And I still read my morning paper as a paper.

But definitely can see when it all goes away... so am surprised it still is supported at all.

It's mandatory and there's no replacement.

Of course, I needed office software that worked right so I had to get non-Microsoft software. And I needed a computer which wasn't controlled remotely by the Russian mob so I had to get a non-Microsoft operating system. (For decades, computers running any version of Windows were immediately taken over as zombies by the Russian mob within an hour of connecting to the Internet.) Didn't stop Microsoft from making bundles of money off people who just didn't care. (Did lose them the server and workstation markets, though.)

I wonder who will make the audiophile's electric car. It could have been Tesla -- easily -- but their "priorities" mean there's an opening for another company to take the entire audiophile market. (Also means Tesla has abandoned the ability to sell upgraded sound systems, which were traditionally a high-margin item on cars; if the underlying playback's no good, no point in getting better speakers.)

 

[TradingInvest]

My son built a little website, it has a calculator to compare total ownership cost between EV and ICE vehicles. It also has a page with some Model 3 reviews. It would be great if you give him some suggestions.

Why Tesla

 

[winfield100]

My son built a little website, it has a calculator to compare total ownership cost between EV and ICE vehicles. It also has a page with some Model 3 reviews. It would be great if you give him some suggestions.

Why Tesla

fix the cost / kWh so it increments/decrements by 0.01
fix miles per year so increment by 250 or 500
fix initial cost so it increments/decrements by $500 or something resonble, not 1

 

[elasalle]

My son built a little website, it has a calculator to compare total ownership cost between EV and ICE vehicles. It also has a page with some Model 3 reviews. It would be great if you give him some suggestions.

Why Tesla

If possible, add State and cost/Kwh per state. In different states cost is different.

 

[gluu]

Relevant for investors who believe that A huge portion of Tesla’s value will come from autonomy:

Aurora’s Approach to Development – Aurora Blog – Medium

 

[shootformoon]

My son built a little website, it has a calculator to compare total ownership cost between EV and ICE vehicles. It also has a page with some Model 3 reviews. It would be great if you give him some suggestions.

Why Tesla

i am not sure how to estimate the yearly service cost since it is obviously not a constant.

 

[aubreymcfato]

My son built a little website, it has a calculator to compare total ownership cost between EV and ICE vehicles. It also has a page with some Model 3 reviews. It would be great if you give him some suggestions.

Why Tesla

if he adds KM and Euros this could be useful also for Europeans. It's a great idea BTW.

 

[avoigt]

My thought about Mercedes EQC:

Design: good, its a question of taste anyway but it looks nice IMO outside as well as inside
Range: Disappointing, around +200miles in 2020, we can imagine where Tesla will be in 2020
Efficiency: Its a 2,5 t vehicle but still with 80kwh and 200 miles range in 2020 you are just not competitive
ChargingNet: Well we all know it does not really exist yet nor its fast, lets hope that changes until delivery
Production: It will be produced on the same line as ICEs. BMW does the same. I believe its another large strategic mistake because you loose design benefits you only get if you build an EV from ground up different than an ICE. They do that to reduce investments and will loose to materialize on a lot of benefits an EV can bring
Availability: Too late, outpaced in 2020 and with obviously low numbers planned moving forward
Silence: I heard good comments and believe them to deliver a Mercedes drive experience

Many open question like centralized computer system and OTU as well as AP or similar beyond what they offer today.

So, you don't hear me cheer to welcome a challenger. Comparing what they talked about before the release I am despite a nice design more disappointed versus for instance the I-Pace.

Will Mercedes sell the car? Of course they will but nowhere near what Tesla does experience and what is required to be in the future a mass producer with healthy margins in the EV world.

If Mercedes does not correct this soon they will shrink significantly and loose profitability.

Jeans and sneaker will not make the Mercedes cars sexy but the products could if they did listen to consumers. Today has been a lost opportunity.

Mercedes-Benz unveils EQC electric SUV, says it’s going ‘all-in’ on electric

Just to add to that the yesterday quote from the CEO Zetsche after the show:

"I do not see any value in building a pure electro manufacturing"

Their thoughts are that the entire package will convince the consumer and therefore they don't need to be superior in specific specs. Press people said there is a lot of uncertainty and vagueness with all statements they heard at the show.

I am stunned how low their understanding still is what a EV consumer is looking for. As expected large OEMs are looking for low costs to protect the anyway low margin they plan to have and compromise on consumer experience and USPs. Thats like compromising on the product quality to keep a high stock price and with that your job as the CEO. That math does not work ...

The German press is as stated before very negative about all what Tesla does and intend to do. Since yesterday I sense that they carefully question the approach of Audi,VW and Daimler. The argument that a mass production will be a none problem for them remains but the big if is if the cars presented from Daimler will create the demand required.

Zetsche did appear uncertain at the presentation and at the interview as well while avoiding and not answering questions like the pricing. For me this sounds like a strategy from the Daimler board to put just a toe in the water but a strategy like a saying we have in Germany called "wash me but don't make me wet".

Its another very small step Daimler is doing here obviously still underestimating or just lacking the understanding what the EV market is about if not just simple denial. They are obviously in their own echo chamber be it in Sindelfingen or Germany as such.

Zetsche should borrow the Model 3, S or X for a weekend and drive it with his family. That could give him a perspective of what is needed for success, technically possible and required to make a difference.

I would not be surprised if we will have a new CEO at Daimler in a few years.

Mercedes-Benz EQC: Daimlers Hoffnungsträger in Sachen Elektroauto - manager magazin

 

[aubreymcfato]

Just posting this here:
See and drive Tesla, Chevy, Nissan, BMW EVs and more at nearby Drive Electric Week events, Sept 8-16
Map of events is here.

If you have spare time, this is a great way to go and support Tesla by showing off your car, provide free rides and answering questions.

 

[shlokavica22]

Thats what most superbowl commercials over the last years have been about, hammering into peoples heads that they need SUVs.

Simple as that. The SUVs are higher margin cars that were shoved into customer's throat. Even though they are much less reliable than the sedans and arguably much less secure.
People feel more secure with them because they sit higher, but when on the highway, for example, what matters is the stability. Statistics show straight correlation between rollovers and fatal casualties.

my only hesitation with your conclusion is that the M3 and Model Y are based on the exact same vehicle platform which would make the Model Y a much more logical next step since it would be much easier to build the lines for.

I think model Y will be much more optimized for mass production. They might prefer to wait and optimize the Model Y design as much as possible before going to mass production.
The Semi on the other hand might have less constrains from that perspective, because the volume will be lower.

The argument that a mass production will be a none problem for them remains but the big if is if the cars presented from Daimler will create the demand required.

I can't understand that confidence. Unless we talk about mass assembling.

 

[RobStark]

Simple as that. The SUVs are higher margin cars that were shoved into customer's throat. Even though they are much less reliable than the sedans and arguably much less secure.
People feel more secure with them because they sit higher, but when on the highway, for example, what matters is the stability. Statistics show straight correlation between rollovers and fatal casualties.

1) No shoving was necessary. They are higher margin because consumers are willing to pay more for them.

2) SUVs are not a lot less reliable than sedans from the same company. Truck based SUVs have better long term durability even if they have lower initial quality.

3) Rollovers are a small fraction of fatalities.

 

[avoigt]

I can't understand that confidence. Unless we talk about mass assembling.

We have to distinguish between manufacturers here

Daimler: They build their EVs on the same platform as ICEs. For them the battery is just a piece they plug in from underneath (1 additional step) and two electric motors they put in (step2). The front where the ICE has been before and the back one from below at the axis (step 3).

So thats just assembly but the battery pack needs to be assembled somewhere too and regardless if done from them or the supplier thats a new complexity. All German OEMs believe they have sold that issue buy using large Battery formats but seem to completely overlook the cooling issue and other problems that go with that decision.

Mercedes employee said in the video they just see 3 additional steps to manufacture an EV all the rest remains the same.

From that point of view I understand their reasoning that they won't have any issues with manufacturing. However my view is that they do not build an EV that can be compared to a Tesla EV. To explain that is a longer story.

Audi: They build the EV from ground up like Tesla and will face a lot of new challenges they may not have expected. I would be surprised if all goes that well. Nevertheless they will not face issues Tesla had around panel gaps but rather around batterie pack assembly (if done from Audi) or cooling as well as SW and HW integration.

 

[shlokavica22]

2) SUVs are not a lot less reliable than sedans from the same company. Truck based SUVs have better long term durability even if they have lower initial quality.

3) Rollovers are a small fraction of fatalities.

2. This site for example (Manufacturer Ratings - Car Reliability Index | Reliability Index | How reliable is your car?) gives an opportunity to compare between cars within the same brand and if you go to one of the most reliable brands (Lexus), you can see significant difference between the sedans and the SUVs.

3. I don't have the time right now to search for the official report for that, but (if you take my word for it) the results showed that If you are in a highway accident with a rollover, the chances of fatalities in the car were significantly higher, than accidents without rollover. I will be happy if you have sources (on hand) showing different conclusions.

Audi: They build the EV from ground up like Tesla and will face a lot of new challenges they may not have expected. I would be surprised if all goes that well. Nevertheless they will not face issues Tesla had around panel gaps but rather around batterie pack assembly (if done from Audi) or cooling as well as SW and HW integration.

That proves my point. In order to be competitive (price/performance) the Big Auto have to take the Audi way. As you say, their competence is limited to a part of the vehicle. For the rest, they don't have the expertise in order to automatically assume they will successfully mass produce with little problems.

 

[JRP3]

3. Rob said rollovers are a small percentage of fatalities, not that a small percentage of rollovers result in fatalities.

 

[Johann Koeber]

....
I would not be surprised if we will have a new CEO at Daimler in a few years.

Mercedes-Benz EQC: Daimlers Hoffnungsträger in Sachen Elektroauto - manager magazin

My feelings exactly after having seen the video.

It might not even take a few years.

 

[gene]

Just posting this here:
See and drive Tesla, Chevy, Nissan, BMW EVs and more at nearby Drive Electric Week events, Sept 8-16
Map of events is here.

If you have spare time, this is a great way to go and support Tesla by showing off your car, provide free rides and answering questions.

I'll be showing my Model 3 both this Saturday and Sunday at two of these events. The Oxnard, CA event, we already have 15 Model 3's showing.

 

[shlokavica22]

3. Rob said rollovers are a small percentage of fatalities, not that a small percentage of rollovers result in fatalities.

>10% is not so small in my opinion (when I exclude all rollovers where people didn't wear a safety belt).

Rollovers are dangerous incidents and have a higher fatality rate than other kinds of crashes. Of the nearly 9.1 million passenger car, SUV, pickup and van crashes in 2010, only 2.1% involved a rollover.

However, rollovers accounted for nearly 35% of all deaths from passenger vehicle crashes. In 2010 alone, more than 7,600 people died in rollover crashes. The majority of them (69%) were not wearing safety belts.

Source: https://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle-Shoppers/Rollover/Fatalities

Just a side note- I persist on that claim, because I think Tesla cars have huge advantage in that regard and we have to make sure more people are aware of that. After all- safety is top priority for Elon/TSLA (as it should be).

 

[aubreymcfato]

I'll be showing my Model 3 both this Saturday and Sunday at two of these events. The Oxnard, CA event, we already have 15 Model 3's showing.

Great! And thanks from us all.
You should convince your wife and kid to do the same, you have a small army of Tesla promoters there ;-)

 

[mongo]

>10% is not so small in my opinion (when I exclude all rollovers where people didn't wear a safety belt).



Source: https://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle-Shoppers/Rollover/Fatalities

Just a side note- I persist on that claim, because I think Tesla cars have huge advantage in that regard and we have to make sure more people are aware of that. After all- safety is top priority for Elon/TSLA (as it should be).

Fortunately, a Tesla SUV with the low mounted battery pack and motors (along with dual motor stability control) will have a lower risk of roll over than a standard ICE SUV.

Regarding the vehicle type, we bought an SUV because it was the only vehicle type that fulfilled our requirements (entrance/ exit, cargo space, power passenger seat, 4WD, heated everything...).