General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

People need to stop comparing the 3 ramp to S/X. It should be vastly superior no question, per Tesla themselves.

The fact that it is faster than the S/X ramp doesn't make it good or okay.

A lot of huge TSLA bulls were still thinking a few weeks ago that Tesla won't even achieve 500/w by end of the year. And here we are with 793 a week and people are still complaining.

 

[Reciprocity]

Yes. That is my prediction. To be around half the current estimate. I have been very wrong in this game before. I also have been reasonably right at times. It's hard.

The biggest thing really is how much S/X can get back to regular gross margin after last quarter. They said last quarter's drop was due to one-off adjustments so I took it to mean they will be back to normal this quarter and only made a minor adjustment for the 7730 cars they sold out of inventory. I suspect the consensus is a bit more conservative here. Another assumption from my part is that they managed to stop the bleeding on service & others. If analysts know more there than I do through private talks with management, that could also make a significant difference. Remember that this also includes trade-ins and CPOs so it is a business segment with a growing importance and it is a large loss center. Finally, I only calculated a net loss of $5M on the South Australia nor did I take into account any losses on Puerto Rico deliveries (possibly seen as corporate charity) I know it is controversial here but I think reasonable people can assume larger losses on those projects, especially as the cells are not Gigafactory sourced and pack assembly was likely a fairly manual process, but the pricing still at just $250/kWh as if none of that were the case.

Losses on TE. Tesla needed a proof of concept that was undeniable. Both of those have interesting use cases along with Kauai. They prove that you can make a big difference in cost and stability and even help in a disaster scenario which shows that if you relied more on distributed solar+battery, there would be a lot more places in PR with power. These cases should be very compelling for companies and governments in a position of facing serious grid related issues.

 

[ggr]

Some more data about the Model 3 ramp speed versus MS and MS. A picture can sometimes help to understand that the M3 ramp is way faster than the previous models.
https://i.imgur.com/uE4Ay0j.png

Thanks, I like that graph. One thing it points out is that Tesla is (again) in new territory in terms of launching a new vehicle. But this time the new territory is production rate, not features. I have no problem with the fact that it's hard to predict exactly.

 

[Reciprocity]

Thanks, I like that graph. One thing it points out is that Tesla is (again) in new territory in terms of launching a new vehicle. But this time the new territory is production rate, not features. I have no problem with the fact that it's hard to predict exactly.

Another interesting thing of note is that Model 3 is already in the neighborhood of Model X's average production over the past year. That is a fairly amazing accomplishment since it clearly, from the graph, took a lot longer then that for S/X to hit 1000/w.

 

[zerokewl]

I don't post a lot but i read a lot on here while i wait for my model 3. I could totally be wrong about this but how has tesla not already hit 200k cars total yet? about 50k 2015, 89k 2016 and 101k 2017? What am i missing here? I thought the tax credit starts diminishing by now? or do those numbers count used ones being sold also? sorry if im just totally wrong.

 

[Xenius]

They haven't hit 200k stateside.

Edit: I didn't actually look, but the numbers you found are likely global.

 

[Reciprocity]

Close in the green today or nah? Place your bets.

What no takers?

 

[Reciprocity]

They haven't hit 200k stateside.

Edit: I didn't actually look, but the numbers you found are likely global.

They are in the 162kish range in the US @Troy would know for sure. At this point, they would ideally hit the 200,001 on July 1st, which would allow full tax credits for the entire second half of the year. That might require some creative fulfillment and stock pilling in June.

 

[Xenius]

That might require some creative fulfillment and stock pilling in June.

Which I fully expect them to do.

 

[zerokewl]

Thanks xenius that was the piece I was missing.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Close in the green today or nah? Place your bets.

I would be happy with a close above $310.

 

[Zaxxon]

They are in the 162kish range in the US @Troy would know for sure. At this point, they would ideally hit the 200,001 on July 1st, which would allow full tax credits for the entire second half of the year. That might require some creative fulfillment and stock pilling in June.

There is no chance they fail to hit it in Q2, barring some major S/X drop and large 3 ramp failure. They will likely hit it early in Q2 by my estimates.

 

[NicoV]

They are in the 162kish range in the US @Troy would know for sure. At this point, they would ideally hit the 200,001 on July 1st, which would allow full tax credits for the entire second half of the year. That might require some creative fulfillment and stock pilling in June.

I think you mean April 1st. 25K Model S+X in Q1 would only allow for 13K Model 3 in Q1 to reach 200K in April.
EDIT: oops, forgot that half of those S+X are not for the USA. So there is maybe room for 25K Model 3 in Q1;

 

[scaesare]

I hate to say it......but this is embarrassing. I sure won't be defending Tesla again any time soon. Just embarrassing to be at least 7 months behind.

Doesn't that equate to 17 months ahead of original schedule?

 

[scaesare]

Yes, but at the same time they DID NOT produce 1000 cars per week. That's still coming, so claiming they are producing that or over that number is just lies. The current rate of production is 793/week. Being able to and actually doing are two different things IMO.

A "rate" is an instantaneous measurement.

My hose can flow 5 gals/min the moment I turn it on, even if I don't let it flow a full 5 gallons.

Now you can question if the rate is SUSTAINABLE, but they did achieve a 1K/wk rate.

 

[Reciprocity]

There is no chance they fail to hit it in Q2, barring some major S/X drop and large 3 ramp failure. They will likely hit it early in Q2 by my estimates.

Not true at all. For example, they have a lot of flexibility on which orders to fulfill and in which order. They can ship every car they make to Canada, Mexico, China and Europe if they have to. Some reasonable amount of this could occur, nothing as dramatic as every car though. They can also stuff inventory in the US going into quarters end.

 

[Buddyroe]

Doesn't that equate to 17 months ahead of original schedule?

Can you show many any evidence of the "original schedule"?

 

[Zaxxon]

I think you mean April 1st. 25K Model S+X in Q1 would only allow for 13K Model 3 in Q1 to reach 200K in April.

There's also no chance of 25k S+X in the US alone in Q1. But the point remains--we're likely well over 160k right now. To wait to hit 200k until 7/1 would mean < 40k combined S/X/3 in the US over the next 6 months (prob < 35k as I think we're around 165k now). Even current guidance has Tesla hitting more than that in Model 3 alone over that span, and S/X should account for well over 20k, in Q1/Q2, even if they do toss a high percentage to other countries.

 

[Zaxxon]

Not true at all. For example, they have a lot of flexibility on which orders to fulfill and in which order. They can ship every car they make to Canada, Mexico, China and Europe if they have to. Some reasonable amount of this could occur, nothing as dramatic as every car though. They can also stuff inventory in the US going into quarters end.

Yes, it's a given. Again, even if they ship every single S/X for Q1 and Q2 outside the US, they are guiding to produce more than the remaining 35k-40k vehicles before 200k just in Model 3 alone over Q1/Q2. And the vast majority (if not all) of those Model 3s are going to the US. And of course they will not ship all S/X outside the US. The only question is whether they hit the 200k mark early or middle of Q2.

 

[RubberToe]

What no takers?

I told Mrs Rubbertoe this morning that I thought that TSLA would finish higher than where it was 30 minutes after the market opened. I didn't necessarily think it would get to the Green zone though...

Good to see the stock price recover that fast though. It's all about perspective. As others have said, the only Bear case anymore is that Tesla can't ramp 3 production. They are clearly doing that. Did they meet their goal: no. Are they ramping: yes. Are the cars good quality so far with no major problems: yes. End of story. All the rest of the chatter is simply lip bouncing for the sake of click bait revenue.

RT