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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Why isn't there an emergency mechanical release on the rear doors? Only on the front. There will be situations where rear passengers need to quickly exit the vehicle.

On any gas car I have ever owned with child locks turned on there is no way to open the rear doors from the inside. The parent must walk around and open the door for them. That is a normal thing. Having an emergency release would make child locks a pointless feature.
I never bothered to reply to the drivel over this issue. It's normal in ALL American cars.
 
In some states (all?) felons and I believe ex-felons cannot vote but they are still citizens.

voter_rules_2418960.jpg
 
This article How Tesla's big battery is bringing Australia’s gas cartel to heel explains how the Tesla battery in South Australia is putting an end to obscene electricity prices of up to $14/kWh. (That’s 14 dollars, not 14 cents.)

If it can keep a lid on FCAS prices like it did in January, then it will likely pay back the cost of the battery in a single year from this service alone, let alone the value of its trading in the wholesale market, and the value of its emergency backup capabilities.

Here FCAS means frequency control and ancillary services, and translates to providing extra power when needed. (For example because a natural gas power plant is going down for maintenance.)
 
Looks like Tesla is recalling Model 3 for a change of the inverter. Service centers try to bundle up the required action when owners come on for other outstanding issues. The build up of model 3's reported at different service centers may not just be local staff lacking qualification to do Model 3 delivery but the service department waiting on parts to come in (several owners reported it added unscheduled extra days that the service department held on to their car)

Not really the news what we need, but at least there is a fix and the slight hiccup in deliveries that we're seeing in terms of the ramp failing to launch last weeks may already be over on the production side but still influencing slower deliveries and VIN assignments. From the extensive data gathered in the spreadsheet it seems we are not yet at a steady 1000/week VIN assignments but rather in the range of 800-900/week. Given that Elon has been clear that production increases in step changes, production is either at that same level or a step change ahead, but most probably not 'a bit ahead'. I think we will know more tomorrow.
 
A guy I know is a retired auto consultant who has worked for VAG, Volvo etc at a high level. He mentioned that Volkswage, Porsche et al calculate margin differently from Tesla. Now I don't recall details, but is point was that one can't really compare the numbers straight off. Sorry I can't be more specific but HTH.
Having worked a a consultant for a number of manufacturers, including ones from Germany, Italy, US, Japan and Korea plus small ones from some other countries I have a perspective on such issues. Without getting too deeply into details there are several ways in which margin calculations, warranty costs, distribution costs, capital expenditures and some other costs differ. Some of them are:

Research and development- some use Tier One suppliers extensively, thus outsource much development to suppliers, and in turn repay through supplier pricing. This varies from complete vehicle production from companies such as Magna and Valmet. This tends to be low volume or specialist vehicles. Porsche, VW, BMW, Daimler and FCA have all done this extensively. Normally Gross Margins shrink but Capex shrinks too and time to market is often lower. Sometimes actual production costs are lower, sometimes higher, depending on many factors.
Distribution policies- these can be very hard to find in accounting policies and sometimes are deliberately obscured. Some recognise sales when vehicles are completed and loaded for shipment to distributors. Some recognise sales when vehicles are delivered to dealers. Some use a mixture. There are nearly endless permutations of timing and conditions for recognising sales. At least one manufacturer recognises sales when a firm order is received and a vehicle is produced, regardless of whether it has entered shipment or not. Tesla is unique in that the recognise a partial sale when the vehicle has been titled to the end purchaser, but they amortise added features such as EAP and FSD only when the features have been delivered. hat policy by Tesla is the primary reason Tesla inventory days on hand appears to be larger than competitors. If one adds dealers and distributors and manufacturer DOH together (assuming one has all that data) one can compare Tesla with others. Further, Tesla holds loaners, service vehicles and trade in vehicles in inventory. No other manufacturer does that, so Tesla DOH appears larger again.

This list of differences goes on quite a long distance. These two, however, are the largest factors.

As an added point, Tesla does have one major Tier One relationship that closely resembles that of Magna Steyr (Magna Austria) with BMW and Daimler, specifically. The GF arrangements with Panasonic are deeply integrated risk sharing deals that help Tesla reduce capital cost and manufacturing complexity. Tesla directly is involved with raw materials sourcing, among other things. As usual with such arrangements the disclosures do not allow 100% transparency.
 
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Of topic, I know.. But today is FH launch day so I hope the moderator will forgive me :)

Interview with Elon of today :
Elon Musk says the Falcon Heavy has a 50-50 chance of success

Is anyone else thinking that (in a long shot scenario) if the FH launch goes to plan, and there is an original Tesla Roadster zipping it’s way through our solar system at 11 km/s, that it would be worth hundreds of millions dollars that would pay off exponentially over time in marketing dollar terms? Could it possibly even be worth over a billion?

If only I were a marketing and math whiz... nevertheless, the idea is fun to entertain!
 
This article How Tesla's big battery is bringing Australia’s gas cartel to heel explains how the Tesla battery in South Australia is putting an end to obscene electricity prices of up to $14/kWh. (That’s 14 dollars, not 14 cents.)

“If it can keep a lid on FCAS prices like it did in January, then it will likely pay back the cost of the battery *in a single year from this service alone,* let alone the value of its trading in the wholesale market, and the value of its emergency backup capabilities.”

Here FCAS means frequency control and ancillary services, and translates to providing extra power when needed. (For example because a natural gas power plant is going down for maintenance.)


Am I the only thinking that this is an incredibly positive development (and in such a big way) that people aren’t even quite grasping it yet? Payback period in under a year? I don’t know how many markets have the dynamics of Australia, but even if this is remotely close for anywhere else then this is just the beginning of a massive snowball effect.
 
Is anyone else thinking that (in a long shot scenario) if the FH launch goes to plan, and there is an original Tesla Roadster zipping it’s way through our solar system at 11 km/s, that it would be worth hundreds of millions dollars that would pay off exponentially over time in marketing dollar terms? Could it possibly even be worth over a billion?

If only I were a marketing and math whiz... nevertheless, the idea is fun to entertain!

It certainly has a nice bit of marketing value. I have no idea how you would attempt to assign a value to it, but assuming we were able, a billion dollars.. I'd certainly bet a large amount on the under.
 
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Is anyone else thinking that (in a long shot scenario) if the FH launch goes to plan, and there is an original Tesla Roadster zipping it’s way through our solar system at 11 km/s, that it would be worth hundreds of millions dollars that would pay off exponentially over time in marketing dollar terms? Could it possibly even be worth over a billion?

If only I were a marketing and math whiz... nevertheless, the idea is fun to entertain!

Who wants to do the math on how long it'll take before it's the highest-mileage vehicle in existence?
 
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