General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

Average transaction prices climb to a record $36,270 in January

Due to January transaction prices rising to $36,270, a record for January, the value of new vehicles sold climbed more than $1 billion compared to January 2017. KBB's transaction prices don't include customer incentives, which changes the complexion slightly; average incentive spending rose to just over ten percent.

Broken out by segment, minivans rocked the table, transaction prices leaping by 7.9 percent to $35,380 compared to January a year earlier. Luxury cars boasted the next-highest rise, at 3.6 percent to $58,533. Mid-sized cars, a segment no one wants to get close to because it smells like decay, saw average transaction prices go up by three percent to $25,865, attributed mainly to monster Toyota Camry sales and the Honda Accord, even though Accord sales dropped 9.5 percent year-on-year.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Probably meaningless, but the highest VIN registered is now 11348, and on 9/29 the highest registered VIN was 1134, aka production hell...think that's just a coincidence? I'm hoping they're telling us they're now in the 8th of the 9 circles of hell (in which case Spiegel will again point out that's where the fraudulent reside ).

Turn the 8 side ways and it's infinite, and it reads "infinite hell", I'm guessing

 

[Gerardf]

"Reuters has learned that Tesla is collaborating with Anheuser-Busch, PepsiCo and United Parcel Service Inc to build on-site charging terminals at their facilities as part of the automaker’s efforts to roll out the vehicle next year. (...)

Anheuser-Busch is evaluating installing its own charging equipment for its 40 Tesla Semis at large breweries and other key locations, according to James Sembrot, senior director of supply chain for the St. Louis-based beer maker.

UPS, too, expects to work closely with Tesla on building on-site charging stations, according to Scott Phillippi, global engineering director for the parcel delivery behemoth. The Atlanta-based company pre-ordered 125 Semis in December.
Exclusive: How Tesla's first truck charging stations will be built

Such partnership is a very smart strategy. There is no standard for MW-level chargers and this way these key-customers among the large fleet buyers will standardize on the Tesla chargers (and peak-load buffer batteries).

It will be hard for the big-semi competition to enter these customers once Tesla has the fist MC's (Mega Chargers ) installed at these key fleet owners. This is at least as powerful as the launch of the SuperCharger network and I will not be surprised if Tesla in this partnership will be offering to pay for the costs building these (at least for the initial ones). As a shareholder I will consider that a great investment.

None of the big-Semi competition offer the chargers and batteries that are needed (or has some experience installing / building them). Big problem for them.

 

[avoigt]

Interesting takeaway from a recent Tesla report about injuries. With the reported productivity gains smart people can predict better output and costs. Also it does prove that the claimed improvements mentioned in previous er are definitely happening.

"One of the most interesting tidbits of information that came out of the post, in my opinion, is that “the number of labor hours needed to complete a vehicle has decreased 33% since early 2016.” If that’s true, it’s either insanely impressive or Tesla had a real problem with labor hours per vehicle back in 2016."

"Previously, it took three shifts with considerable overtime to produce Model S and Model X. Now, even with production of those vehicles having increased in 2017 to 100,000, it can be done with only two shifts and minimal overtime."

Tesla announces new steps to make Fremont factory ‘the safest car factory in the world’

 

[schonelucht]

Remember that early 2016 was model X production hell when producing labor hours per vehicle.

 

[avoigt]

This is a German Petition asking to change the German legislation that did stop the expansion of Superchargers in Germany since 2016 likely triggered by German Automaker Lobby Groups.

If relevant for you please sign it as it helps to expand the already good German SC net and close all white spots remaining.

Petitionen: Verwendung von Cookies nicht aktiviert

Appreciated

 

[Gerardf]

This is a German Petition asking to change the German legislation that limits the expansion of Superchargers in Germany.
If relevant for you please sign it as it helps to expand the already good German SC net and close all white spots remaining.
Petitionen: Verwendung von Cookies nicht aktiviert
Appreciated

Done (German chargers are even more important to me than those in The Netherlands)

50.000 signatures are needed , so please all sign

P.S. you can sign the petition with any country address, including all European countries as well as USA and Canada.

Edit : I hope signatures from all countires count, but why else enter all countries in the select box.

 

[Troy]

"One of the most interesting tidbits of information that came out of the post, in my opinion, is that “the number of labor hours needed to complete a vehicle has decreased 33% since early 2016.” If that’s true, it’s either insanely impressive or Tesla had a real problem with labor hours per vehicle back in 2016.

It's the former. Check out the article here that compares vehicle production per worker at Fremont in 2016 to NUMMI in 1985 and 1997. NUMMI was producing 26 vehicles per year per worker in 1985. They increased that to 74 in 1997. Tesla was below 14 in 2016. Of course, the Model 3 production line is a lot more automated (listen to Elon here) but they might be still behind industry averages.

 

[dc_h]

It's the former. Check out the article here that compares vehicle production per worker at Fremont in 2016 to NUMMI in 1985 and 1997. NUMMI was producing 26 vehicles per year per worker in 1985. They increased that to 74 in 1997. Tesla was below 14 in 2016. Of course, the Model 3 production line is a lot more automated (listen to Elon here) but they might be still behind industry averages.

The Model 3 should change this rate considerably, but it does highlight the opportunity of the Model S&X. Transferring some of the automation steps in Model 3 to S&X may require some design changes. I recall from the original plant review the touch panel is fairly labor intensive and seat installation is still a manual process. I'm sure Tesla knows where the low hanging fruit is and I would be surprised if annual labor productivity for the S&X is less than 10% and following the Model 3 line running at 5k per week, I would expect more resources to be put into S&X line improvements. From a logistical and employee availability perspective, it is probably hard to grow the plant population much beyond the current capacity, so productivity is crucial to expanding output. The other big productivity gain should be coming from the automated stamping parts storage. Early plant videos showed laborers moving parts on carts to the assembly line. With the big stamping parts storage buildings on the north and south end of the building, parts delivery to the line must be more automated.

 

[Lessmog]

15% GM?! Yuck.

A guy I know is a retired auto consultant who has worked for VAG, Volvo etc at a high level. He mentioned that Volkswage, Porsche et al calculate margin differently from Tesla. Now I don't recall details, but is point was that one can't really compare the numbers straight off. Sorry I can't be more specific but HTH.

 

[scaesare]

A bit of negativity for the weekend:
First Model 3 motor failure reported, Tesla engineers on their way to investigate


Expect more negativity from this guy in the future

So that's where Statler and Waldorf went!:

 

[Lessmog]

This is a German Petition asking to change the German legislation that did stop the expansion of Superchargers in Germany since 2016 likely triggered by German Automaker Lobby Groups.

If relevant for you please sign it as it helps to expand the already good German SC net and close all white spots remaining.

Petitionen: Verwendung von Cookies nicht aktiviert

Appreciated

Done (German chargers are even more important to me than those in The Netherlands)

50.000 signatures are needed , so please all sign

P.S. you can sign the petition with any country address, including all European countries as well as USA and Canada.

Edit : I hope signatures from all countires count, but why else enter all countries in the select box.

Ditto. We do have a bit further to go -- I was only number 783 ...

 

[ggr]

Ditto. We do have a bit further to go -- I was only number 783 ...

I was 786.
Mod: don't need a running tally here --ggr

 

[Bobfitz1]

"Residents will enjoy lower bills and backup storage from their Tesla Powerwall battery, and the broader community will benefit from a more reliable grid that can better cope with peak demand.” (...)
"The key objectives of the virtual power plant are to:

• Provide significant cost savings to consumers participating in the program
• Demonstrate the ability of a virtual power plant to deliver savings to households and improve the resilience of the grid
• Introduce competition into the South Australian energy market, placing downward pressure on energy prices
• Establish a new, dispatchable renewable energy power plant, providing energy when it is most required"

Tesla to build 250MW “virtual power plant” in South Australia
These objectives apply to many countries and regions of the world in particular where high energy prices exist.
The project will prove on a large scale how superior a micro grid or decentralized grid is for costs, grid stability and competition.

If South Australia can partner with Tesla Energy on this scale, why can't the U.S. government do the same type of pilot project in Puerto Rico as part of restoring electric service there? Is any one up on what is planned for PR? Is the opportunity to revamp and decentralize Puerto Rico's grid slipping away?

 

[RobStark]

First Model 3 motor failure reported, Tesla engineers on their way to investigate

I did not realize this about the rear Model 3 doors.

Why isn't there an emergency mechanical release on the rear doors? Only on the front. There will be situations where rear passengers need to quickly exit the vehicle.

 

[aubreymcfato]

If South Australia can partner with Tesla Energy on this scale, why can't the U.S. government do the same type of pilot project in Puerto Rico as part of restoring electric service there? Is any one up on what is planned for PR? Is the opportunity to revamp and decentralize Puerto Rico's grid slipping away?

You are assuming the current US government regards Puerto Rico as part of the US... I think that Tesla did some donations of solar systems and powerpacks in Puerto Rico, but there's not much info about this.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

First Model 3 motor failure reported, Tesla engineers on their way to investigate

I did not realize this about the rear Model 3 doors.

Why isn't there an emergency mechanical release on the rear doors? Only on the front. There will be situations where rear passengers need to quickly exit the vehicle.

This has been a matter of much debate in the Model 3 subforum. Some have argued that in a collision severe enough to disable the 12v system, passengers would need to be extracted by cutting up the car rather than opening a door.

I do not know enough about emergency vehicle extraction to make a judgment on this.

 

[kbM3]

It's the former. Check out the article here that compares vehicle production per worker at Fremont in 2016 to NUMMI in 1985 and 1997. NUMMI was producing 26 vehicles per year per worker in 1985. They increased that to 74 in 1997. Tesla was below 14 in 2016. Of course, the Model 3 production line is a lot more automated (listen to Elon here) but they might be still behind industry averages.

Doesn’t seem relevant to compare since Tesla is much more vertically integrated.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's the former. Check out the article here that compares vehicle production per worker at Fremont in 2016 to NUMMI in 1985 and 1997. NUMMI was producing 26 vehicles per year per worker in 1985. They increased that to 74 in 1997. Tesla was below 14 in 2016. Of course, the Model 3 production line is a lot more automated (listen to Elon here) but they might be still behind industry averages.

I do not believe that industry average vehicles per worker is a proper benchmark for Tesla’s Fremont Factory. The type of vehicles produced and price point need to be accounted for proper comparison imo.

Let’s consider BMW South Carolina plant. It has 10,000 employees and production capacity of 450k vehicles (X3, X4, X5 and X6). This is roughly in line with Tesla Fremont Factory which employs about 10k people and is scaling production to about 500k vehicles per year.

Production Overview | BMW US Factory

2015 Record Production Year: Annual Production Tops 400,000 X-Models. | BMW US Factory

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is another example - new Volvo plant in South Carolina will produce 100,000 cars/year (S60) and employ 2,000 people. This is again in line with the Fremont Metrics.

South Carolina Factory | Volvo Car USA