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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The red tape is done by a US state gov't
The roads are built by a US state gov't
The tolls are setup and raised by a US state gov't
Then the state sells a long term lease on the toll roads for up front cash. The state uses that cash for new infrastructure projects but then can no longer collect tolls on that original road for the duration of the lease. Meanwhile, the buying company collects all of the tolls for that lease, likely to be several times the original amount of purchased lease.

It's short-sighted. Kicking the can down the road for future spending and debt.
Sounds like toll road is fine, but how each states approach financing is the problem. So can we stay on topic please? Toll roads, that's what we're here for, right?
 
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The head of Daimler's truck business (the largest truck business in the world) says "we can't compete with the Tesla Semi, so we don't think it is possible for Tesla to make it." OK, I'm paraphrasing, but that's the gist of it.

Take home message -- they are not going to even try to compete with the Semi's specs because they can't.

Daimler Throws Shade at Tesla as Truck Rivalry Heats Up

This is very promising, especially since one major customer has already confirmed most of the Semi specs are met by the prototype. Tesla Semi test program partner says that performance specs are for real

I think that a quote deserves to be here. They are going after Musk in a quite personal way. A very good sign IMO:
“If Tesla really delivers on this promise, we’ll obviously buy two trucks -- one to take apart and one to test because if that happens, something has passed us by,” Daum said. “But for now, the same laws of physics apply” in Germany and in California, where Tesla is based, he added.

Yes, the fear is palpable.
 
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Hate both Tolls and Trolls.
Tolls can serve a purpose to build much needed infrastructure. But once a Toll is applied, it never gets removed. It stays on for ever. Haven't heard a case of Tolls expiring after say 5/10 years of completion of infrastructure.
One of the freeways in Sydney, Oz, became free after 10 years. Then then widened it and put the toll back. It's a "motorway" again now.
 
Someone claims that they were told the delay is due to Tesla shifting to RHD production. And that if you check estimated delivery dates to RHD countries that it is still pre-June.
UK shows 'June'. Australia and New Zealand show 'late May'. HK does not show dates.
That is not indicating a RHD issue. Notably countries served from Tilburg do not differ. this similarity is exceedingly rare, I'm tempted to say unprecedented. Obviously it means something!
 
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I think that a quote deserves to be here. They are going after Musk in a quite personal way. A very good sign IMO:


Yes, the fear is p[a]lpable.

Yep. This is a big deal for Daimler and eventually for Tesla. In 2017 the Daimler truck business was $35 billion in revenue -- 22% of Daimler's total -- on sales of 470K units up from 415K (not all Semis). https://www.daimler.com/dokumente/i...chte/daimler/daimler-ir-factsheet-fy-2017.pdf (slides 10, 17-21).

Elon estimated 100K/year Semis in four years but I think that's like the original production estimate of 20K/year Model S's -- a starting point for high volume production of trucks not an end point.
 
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Yep. This is a big deal for Daimler and eventually for Tesla. In 2017 the Daimler truck business was $35 billion in revenue -- 22% of Daimler's total -- on sales of 470K units up from 415K (not all Semis). https://www.daimler.com/dokumente/i...chte/daimler/daimler-ir-factsheet-fy-2017.pdf (slides 10, 17-21).

Elon estimated 100K/year Semis in four years but I think that's like the original estimate of 20K/year Model S's -- a starting point for high volume production of trucks not an end point.
Then think about the impact potential for Daimler trucks in the US: Mercedes-Benz, Thomas Built, Fuso, Freightliner, Western Star, Detroit Diesel. The last would appear to be doomed. The first two are vans and school busses with lots of BEV competition emerging for both. In between are brands ready to be hammered by Tesla. Bluntly, if we know they're worried about Tesla cars, just imagine how they feel about Semi.
 
Wouldn’t buying a used Tesla S accomplish this?

Might be helpful. but what this guy is talking about is 1 million miles in 5 years. Also pointless because Tesla is not using those cells in the Semi. Who knows what they are using in the semi. It almost makes sense that if 2170 is great for cars there is a cell architecture that is different and better for Semis. It could be 42140.. who knows. It is not clear that a jump in tech needs to happen as its clear that Tesla focused on Drag and probably weight of the vehicle not including the drive train. The improvements needed to get a 800KWh - 1MWh pack to go 500 miles while hauling 80,000lbs is not a huge stretch. You can multiply a model 3 by 10 and get there pretty easily. The million+ miles is another challenge that I think people have made more stink about, including Nikola Motors where they claim that Tesla would have to NMC instead of NCA because of the need to recharge 5000 times to get to get to 1 million miles and the energy density would be an issue as I would assume charge rates. Maybe this is a Jeff Dahn battery improvement that is more about durability then a lot more density. Both are issues for cars, but for Semi the ability to almost fully recharge the battery 2 times every workday for 10 years is key (250 work days a year x 2 charges a day x 10 years = 5000 cycles). That would be the extreme and would be more like ~250,000 miles a year which would be highly unlikely, unless the semi is autonomous, then it will be the minimum.

To me, I can totally see how Tesla is getting to the range and pack size and recharging. The main question I have is how is it going to fair over 10 years. Does it even matter. Think about it this way. Tesla could guarantee the pack or replace it. They could then re-purpose the old packs for Megacharging and Utility projects where an 80% semi pack degrading to 50% after another 10 years is not a big deal, just double the number of packs over the 10 years. How much better are the semi packs going to be in 12 years? My point is that Tesla can buy time for tech to catch up, though I think they are already to a point where 1m miles is totally attainable, which is what they are guaranteeing.
 
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