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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Elon & Team need to start producing the Model 3 in volume before the upcoming market downturn - currently expecting it by end-18 to early-19.

Or else.

Please expound on the reasoning of your end of 18 early 19 expected downturn in the Macro thread. I'd love to hear it as I've been thinking a lot about it recently. I think it could happen that soon for sure, but I think it will surprise and be several years later, and much worse... Would love to hear your thoughts.
 
It's really only doable if they are planning to deliberately make a huge miss on the M3 production targets for end of Q1 and Q2. End if they were doing it, it would make no sense to have US and EU deliveries for S/X on June. Instead push out US to July and bring EU in to May.

That does not make any sense. Instead they just ship everything to outside of the US. Enough demand there I am sure. You US folks sometimes forget there is a whole other world out there :)
 
That does not make any sense. Instead they just ship everything to outside of the US. Enough demand there I am sure. You US folks sometimes forget there is a whole other world out there :)

Wait...what? There’s other land beyond the surrounding oceans? And people live there too? Are they like Martians? And they can drive Teslas?! Troll.
 
In that theory, I wrote that I thought that part of doing this would be building inventory (not custom ordered) cars for international S/X. If this is still needed, and is part of what they are planning to do, custom S/X for EU showing June is consistent with this. If they are going with extra inventory international cars, they want to prioritize getting those out ahead of custom international cars, so the inventory cars have a better chance (more time) to be sold in Q2 to keep actual numbers in the range of delivery/revenue expectations for Q2.

That's a good point that can reasonably explain the June timeframe for EU orders. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks. To make it there are two things we should see relatively soon (before Q2) and one thing we shouldn't see : Canadian reservation holders being invited, American S/X deliveries pushed to July but not a quick ramp up to 2500 and later 5000/week.
 
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There is also the matter of China and to a lesser extent S Korea. Where Teslas can be shipped and delivered in Q2 to both make numbers and not cross the 200kth threshold in the USA.

Tesla could do it. But the task is large and risky. A lot has to come together. Order volume outside the US in places they can deliver. Model 3 ramping faster is good for the company but bad for this goal, unless they deliver every Canadian car before US, which almost requires SR Dual motor. It's possible, but a lot has to happen and it's not easy stuff. Tesla cannot have a crappy quarter for deliveries and cannot claim they are gaming the system. So they have to do the nearly impossible and both deliver a ton of cars and not deliver them where it's easiest, but where it's hardest.
 
"Can't let them pile up like Coke cans." -- Elon.
They were going to try and catch the fairing though. Hope they have a camera drone nearby to catch the image for us!
  • elonmuskGoing to try to catch the giant fairing (nosecone) of Falcon 9 as it falls back from space at about eight times the speed of sound. It has onboard thrusters and a guidance system to bring it through the atmosphere intact, then releases a parafoil and our ship, named Mr. Steven, with basically a giant catcher’s mitt welded on, tries to catch it.
 
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