General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

Your former statement is what I would expect if they are installing multiples of high volume equipment in the bottleneck zone. If they have 1,500 units worth of equipment coming in and blitz install it, then there could be a large jump. If each piece of equipment is good for 250 units per week and they have a staged install schedule, then you might get the smooth ramp.

Lame analogy:
Family one:
no kids, year later: one kid, year later: two kids, year later: three kids.
Family two
No kids, year later: no kids, year later: no kids, year later: triplets. (less likely, but possible)

Elon knows about triplets.

 

[1101011]

My bigger concern is that the rate of deliveries seems to have flat-lined right at the point where you would be expecting them to ramp in a way that you would notice...Any expectations for insideEVs numbers coming by Friday?

But insideEVs number are speculation. In the long run, you have no certainty until the end of the quarter.

 

[ggr]

Your former statement is what I would expect if they are installing multiples of high volume equipment in the bottleneck zone. If they have 1,500 units worth of equipment coming in and blitz install it, then there could be a large jump. If each piece of equipment is good for 250 units per week and they have a staged install schedule, then you might get the smooth ramp.

Lame analogy:
Family one:
no kids, year later: one kid, year later: two kids, year later: three kids.
Family two
No kids, year later: no kids, year later: no kids, year later: triplets. (less likely, but possible)

Anecdote (but true, my wife was a counsellor for the Multiple Birth Association): Family had twin boys. Thought they'd try for a girl. Had twin boys. Thought they'd try again for a girl. Had quadruplets... one was a girl!

 

[StapleGun]

Anecdote (but true, my wife was a counsellor for the Multiple Birth Association): Family had twin boys. Thought they'd try for a girl. Had twin boys. Thought they'd try again for a girl. Had quadruplets... one was a girl!

So what you're saying is that weekly production should jump to 4k soon? I'm going all-in!

 

[elasalle]

I have not read much negative about quality. This forum is a magnet for the biggest issues and they all seem to be minor and addressed quickly. I certainly would not compare it to the MX though I was not living Tesla back then like I am now. I own an MX, post issues thankfully. Its been all but perfect. My point was only that there were too few Owners/Employees to confine orders to CA without including first time owners. Produce rate is slow, but its already on part with MX, which is significant for a new model. It took much longer for MX to get to 1000/w with as few issues as model 3 has. Probably about the time I bought mine in Dec 2016.

My bigger concern is that the rate of deliveries seems to have flat-lined right at the point where you would be expecting them to ramp in a way that you would notice. I am not saying they would go from 1000-2500 in a single week, but they only have 4.5 weeks left and they seem to be stuck at 1000. If you project a smooth ramp; 1250, 1500, 1750, 2000, 2500, you should notice that kind of weekly improvement. Vins would be out there like crazy and new registrations for vins would be occurring regularly or in large chunks.

Normally I wouldnt be so concerned but this would be the third time this is pushed back and I cant help but think that will have a negative impact on the stock price.

Any expectations for insideEVs numbers coming by Friday? I think anything under 4k would a bit disappointing. I think people will use this as a proxy for 1k/w and less would clearly show they are behind on hitting the 2.5k/w goal in just 5 weeks.

Edit: another odd thing is that people are still getting vins assigned in the 4ks. Just one today In the Vin threads. It seems this is in part due to color. Black seems have been over produced compared to demand and people are getting low vins on black cars. Still very much just anecdotal evidence but odd that a car would sit almost a month in this demand crazed environment.

Yes, I think InsideEV numbers are going to have a negative impact. First it measures deliveries and not production rates. Next, while other companies release their numbers monthly and InsideEV numbers are accurate, for Tesla the numbers are extrapolated.

The highest VIN registered is still 11348, (have been trying a 12000 VIN and still getting error in NHTSA. )

I am hoping for another round of VIN requests anytime soon. If Tesla wants anything more than a 1K rate for Q1, I think next batch of VINs should be coming out in next 2-3 days. If this comes out around the same time as InsideEV, I think it might negate the InsideEV impact.

 

[ggr]

Yes, I think InsideEV numbers are going to have a negative impact. First it measures deliveries and not production rates. Next, while other companies release their numbers monthly and InsideEV numbers are accurate, for Tesla the numbers are extrapolated.

The highest VIN registered is still 11348, (have been trying a 12000 VIN and still getting error in NHTSA. )

I am hoping for another round of VIN requests anytime soon. If Tesla wants anything more than a 1K rate for Q1, I think next batch of VINs should be coming out in next 2-3 days. If this comes out around the same time as InsideEV, I think it might negate the InsideEV impact.

IIRC, the VIN batches have historically happened on Tuesdays. Today is Tuesday.

 

[TheDoktor]

Yes, I think InsideEV numbers are going to have a negative impact. First it measures deliveries and not production rates. Next, while other companies release their numbers monthly and InsideEV numbers are accurate, for Tesla the numbers are extrapolated.

The highest VIN registered is still 11348, (have been trying a 12000 VIN and still getting error in NHTSA. )

I am hoping for another round of VIN requests anytime soon. If Tesla wants anything more than a 1K rate for Q1, I think next batch of VINs should be coming out in next 2-3 days. If this comes out around the same time as InsideEV, I think it might negate the InsideEV impact.

Perhaps snarky of me to say so, but registering VINs will not help them increase the rate of production.

The only thing registering new VINs will do is lower the heart rate of Model 3 line waiters, and drive up the stock price

 

[elasalle]

Perhaps snarky of me to say so, but registering VINs will not help them increase the rate of production.

The only thing registering new VINs will do is lower the heart rate of Model 3 line waiters, and drive up the stock price

Ya not snarky ...
If Production rate increases, the rate at which VINs are requested should also increase .. Unless Tesla wants to game it ...
but will ultimately be caught when Q1 numbers come out ...

 

[tinm]

re the EV noise requirement discussion... sure looks like a situation where the Tesla sense of humor will come into play, hopefully customizable too if regulation allows for it.

If it depends on Tesla sense of humor, then Tesla vehicles will start reciting Vogon poetry when sensors indicate pedestrians nearby.

 

[elasalle]

IIRC, the VIN batches have historically happened on Tuesdays. Today is Tuesday.

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter I don't see Tuesday pattern here

 

[Intl Professor]

Anecdote (but true, my wife was a counsellor for the Multiple Birth Association): Family had twin boys. Thought they'd try for a girl. Had twin boys. Thought they'd try again for a girl. Had quadruplets... one was a girl!

My grandmother was the first of ten girls. I wonder what was on my great grandfather's mind?

 

[avoigt]

breaking news: German Community's can set rules to ban Diesel cars out of city's. This has been decided by the highest German court.

The decision is valid for vehicles with older technology only.

Thats the " death kiss" for the Diesel Technology IMHO.

update: Hamburg is the first German City that declared today a ban for old Diesel cars on some roads starting in April ... to be continued

 

[Curt Renz]

Commencing on February 27, 2018, the following investor presentation was used by Tesla, Inc. (“ Tesla ”) for meetings with its stockholders and other interested persons in connection with the approval of the grant of a performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk, Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer and Chairman.

Tesla - Definitive Additional Proxy Materials

 

[sub]

If my memory is correct, the title
Of this article is incorrect. The DHL exec said roughly "the difference in cost between the Tesla semi and a diesel semi would be paid for within 2 years". Still great, but not the entire semi as the title incorrectly states.

From the article:

I'm a bit if a stickler for facts, hard to know what the original quote was but I would lean Reuters over cleantechnica on this one. From Reuters:

Numbers starting to add up for Tesla trucks: DHL executive

"He says he could potentially pay off the difference between the purchase price of a Tesla Semi and a traditional diesel truck in less than two years, thanks to savings on maintenance and fuel."

It's great for Tesla either way, but paying off the difference vs diesel vs the entire Tesla semi paying for itself in two years is a big difference and I know how a lot of members here like to dissect the numbers.

 

[bobinfla]

Perhaps snarky of me to say so, but registering VINs will not help them increase the rate of production.

The only thing registering new VINs will do is lower the heart rate of Model 3 line waiters, and drive up the stock price

Okay, sounds like a win-win to me!

 

[Skryll]

breaking news: German Community's can set rules to ban Diesel cars out of city's. This has been decided by the highest German court.

The decision is valid for vehicles with older technology only.

With that they mean pre-cheat device?

jk

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm a bit if a stickler for facts, hard to know what the original quote was but I would lean Reuters over cleantechnica on this one. From Reuters:

Numbers starting to add up for Tesla trucks: DHL executive

"He says he could potentially pay off the difference between the purchase price of a Tesla Semi and a traditional diesel truck in less than two years, thanks to savings on maintenance and fuel."

It's great for Tesla either way, but paying off the difference vs diesel vs the entire Tesla semi paying for itself in two years is a big difference and I know how a lot of members here like to dissect the numbers.

Cleantechnica had the same quote. At least in the article I read. You dont just get free semi trucks. I think there is also another area of savings that companies could realize, and that is when they partner with Tesla to install onsite charging. Tesla can offer Solar and Batteries to smooth out spikes in demand which will smooth out costs and allow partners to actually save money on all the electricity they use at those locations. Much of this onsite charging infrastructure will have its own payback time and incentives. If the Tesla semi works, the biggest savings are actually farther down the road and companies are better at evaluating those savings and using things like depreciation and expenses to justify the upfront costs where consumers can find it more difficult to deal with the higher upfront costs.

Look no further then the massive array they are putting on top of the Gigafactory. As useful as this will be to help Tesla cut costs and smooth out electricity issues that supposedly exist there, it will also be a huge example for what is possible. Much like the huge SA battery is opening doors, the Gigafactory could be used as a case study as I am assuming that the first Tesla semis will charge there and take materials to Fremont. Tesla can use this data to show potential partners how much savings they have by using solar and storing the excess in batteries for use to smooth out demand, which leads to lower demand related fees and generally lower rates.

How much electricity does the Gigafactory use? Is the size of the install going to be big enough for the factory and all the Semis? In thoery, they would charge will being loaded, leave the Gigafactory to Fremont and return the same day without charging. They would then be charged at the Gigafactory again. They could charge while they unload but they could also just leave the trailer and take an empty back without recharging (though that is 530ish miles round trip, though the semi would be empty or less then full on the way back so maybe?)

 

[avoigt]

With that they mean pre-cheat device?

jk

That means that Diesel cars with a certain amount of emissions can be banned. Newer Diesel cars do comply with regulations.

Other measures to get a better air in cities can be initiated as well. Nevertheless its proven that Diesel cars are with 74% the ones who cause the majority of health risk.

This sentence has nothing to do with the device that was cheating the test environment pretending better emissions than in real live.

Diesel sales has dropped dramatically in Germany and given that news will continue to drop. Demand for EVs will benefit.....

 

[Reciprocity]

Am I the only one that's freaked out that its pronounced yundai (Yun Die) when its spelled hyundai (Hun Die)? They seem to be doing a decent job with EVs. The Kona is basically a good looking bolt in a CUV format. The Ionic is one of the most efficient cars and you can see how it might work with a 40KWh or larger battery. Neither one is a Model 3/Y in terms of looks, but they are very decent offerings and are not fugly for the sake of being fugly.

 

[jhm]

I'm a bit if a stickler for facts, hard to know what the original quote was but I would lean Reuters over cleantechnica on this one. From Reuters:

Numbers starting to add up for Tesla trucks: DHL executive

"He says he could potentially pay off the difference between the purchase price of a Tesla Semi and a traditional diesel truck in less than two years, thanks to savings on maintenance and fuel."

It's great for Tesla either way, but paying off the difference vs diesel vs the entire Tesla semi paying for itself in two years is a big difference and I know how a lot of members here like to dissect the numbers.

What you are quoting is journalist's interpretation of what DHL says.

Here is the actual quote from Jim Monkmeyer, president, Transportation at DHL Supply Chain:

"We are estimating that we could have pay back within a year-and-a-half based on energy usage as well as lower maintenance cost," Monkmeyer told Reuters in an interview from his office in Columbus, Ohio.

I'm not sure why you would take a journalist's gloss over a precise statement from the executive that the journalist quotes. I can't account for why the journalist stretches 1.5 years into 2 years. Might this reflect a bias that the reporter has? Or is it just sloppy?

I do think it makes a difference whether the payback is 18 months of 24 months as this can impact how quickly DHL might replace its fleet. Does it sell off old trucks to replace quickly or simply wait until old truck need replacement? The quicker the payback, the more likely they are to retire trucks early.

I do think that Monkmeyer is talking about payback relative to the next best option, diesel. But do keep in mind that the savings could be about $0.25/mile in US, which over 1 million warranted miles is a savings of $250k. So the truck really can pay for itself within its warranted life range. So with this sort of savings at play, it does motivate selling off and replacing the diesel fleet ASAP. If that is so, the limiting factors to reolacing thr whole fleet are building out charging infrastructure and building the trucks. These are two awesome problems for Tesla to solve.