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There is a thread over in the Electric Vehicles section, Should EVs Make Artificial Sounds at Low Speeds?, in which all these arguments have been beaten to death. Please take this discussion there before the moderator wakes up and does it.
Notably, EVERY brand in highest tier of owner satisfaction is also average reliability (along with others not in the highest tier of owner satisfaction).
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
dc_h
Active Member
I think it may also be that ramping up GF pack production is an overtime thing and will kill margins. If there are some downstream issues as well, it may be wiser to work the lines 9-5.
Hopefully all moot in the next week or two and Troy starts seeing the VINs roll in.
dc_h
Active Member
At one point someone at Tesla, maybe Elon, suggested they could have sound packages, like a Star Wars option. The horn would make light saber noises, or Star Trek package with phasers. Basically car sounds like cell phone ring tones.
I’d personally like a swarm of bees sailing down the street.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Over in the Model 3 subforum the parking lot where M3s normally sit is nearly empty.
Theories:
1. The pack assembly line from Germany has arrived, and they’ve temporarily stopped the line to install it (maybe they can’t run their manual assembly at the same time).
2. The transport system is running smoothly now in that as M3s are produced, they almost immediately go on trucks to their final destinations.
3. Epic disaster has stopped M3 production for some other reason.
Likelihood:
1 = 15%
2 = 45%
3 = 0.5%
4 = other
Other theories?
Theories:
1. The pack assembly line from Germany has arrived, and they’ve temporarily stopped the line to install it (maybe they can’t run their manual assembly at the same time).
2. The transport system is running smoothly now in that as M3s are produced, they almost immediately go on trucks to their final destinations.
3. Epic disaster has stopped M3 production for some other reason.
Likelihood:
1 = 15%
2 = 45%
3 = 0.5%
4 = other
Other theories?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Review: Tesla Model 3 lives up to hype
Positive review of Model 3 in the Detroit News by in-house car critic and Model 3 reservation holder.
I can't recall a positive article on Tesla from the Detroit News itself, sometimes it publishes articles from other sources that are positive on Tesla but almost never from in-house writers.
Positive review of Model 3 in the Detroit News by in-house car critic and Model 3 reservation holder.
I can't recall a positive article on Tesla from the Detroit News itself, sometimes it publishes articles from other sources that are positive on Tesla but almost never from in-house writers.
Remembering how annoyingly stupid some of these custom ringtones were, hopefully not.
breaking news: German Community's can set rules to ban Diesel cars out of city's. This has been decided by the highest German court.
The decision is valid for vehicles with older technology only.
Thats the " death kiss" for the Diesel Technology IMHO.
The decision is valid for vehicles with older technology only.
Thats the " death kiss" for the Diesel Technology IMHO.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Something is a miss but 3 seems unlikely with tesla sending out the first time owners invites. The lack of new nhtsa vins and Vin assignments to customers points to lower production rates not higher rates. This is surprising based on what was stated on the call and reiterated on the 8k. We can all argue about what "on site" and "currently being installed" means, but to me it means increased production not deceased production. If you are producing 200 cars a day, those lots would be filling long enough to fill car carries efficiently, so the empty lots are concerning because I assume they are still building cars in batches. If they do a bunch of black cars, then white then blue and so on in batches, they would need to have a queue of each to efficiently load up trucks for specific destinations. Some destinations maybe large enough to take a full load of black cars or white cars but for the most part, from what I have seen at my local service center, where they seem to move at least 10 a day, they seem to be a mix of every color option.
What I need to see by Friday when us delivery estimates come out, is more vins and higher vins. On the good side, they released a lot of invites and they wouldn't have done that if they didn't have the ability to fulfill. Standard 3-6 week delivery times where also noted by those invitees which has been the standard to date.
I hope my concerns are unfounded but going to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
jhm
Well-Known Member
When X was getting ramped, for like 6-8 + mths all deliveries were to CA. For M3, the deliveries are all across the US. So I think vehicle quality and issues are passing quality control, else we would not be seeing deliveries across the US.
With that said, it was mentioned(IIRC) in earning/CC that ramp would be slowed to ensure greater vehicle quality.
Anstandswauwau
Member
Other European countries will follow. You'd be out of your mind buying a Diesel now.
This is huge.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
I dont think I would bet on that as being fact. For one, they sent invites to all CA owners and Employees and fulfilled those orders quickly and ran out people who wanted the initial production model. Maybe you are still right, but they would have had to open up orders to non-owners/employees in CA only to keep deliveries there. It is hard to know whats right, but I think general, the number of issues and the quality seem to be ok for a car that basically skipped the Beta phase and went from Alpha to Release Candidate to Production. I am not an expert on automotive manufacturing, but this is supposed to be one of those things that is impossible. As we know, Tesla challenges those ideas all the time and mostly defeats them. I still think in this case its a bit to early determine if overall initially quality is good. One thing I do know, is that Tesla will go out of its way to resolve these issues quickly and update their processes to make sure they are resolved long term. If you are agile enough to skip beta, you are flexible enough to fix the production processes as issues arise.
You would bet that M3 quality issues are not as big as the MX issues during the initial ramp? ( I would)
that's not to say M3 does not have any quality issues, but given that they are being delivered all over the US, I think confidence is there that quality is good and % of cars with defects are small and minor.
it will take a good amount of time before any unforeseen issues appear due to wear and tear (..e.g. seatbelt issues on the X)
Reciprocity
Active Member
You would bet that M3 quality issues are not as big as the MX issues during the initial ramp? ( I would)
that's not to say M3 does not have any quality issues, but given that they are being delivered all over the US, I think confidence is there that quality is good and % of cars with defects are small and minor.
it will take a good amount of time before any unforeseen issues appear due to wear and tear (..e.g. seatbelt issues on the X)
I have not read much negative about quality. This forum is a magnet for the biggest issues and they all seem to be minor and addressed quickly. I certainly would not compare it to the MX though I was not living Tesla back then like I am now. I own an MX, post issues thankfully. Its been all but perfect. My point was only that there were too few Owners/Employees to confine orders to CA without including first time owners. Produce rate is slow, but its already on part with MX, which is significant for a new model. It took much longer for MX to get to 1000/w with as few issues as model 3 has. Probably about the time I bought mine in Dec 2016.
My bigger concern is that the rate of deliveries seems to have flat-lined right at the point where you would be expecting them to ramp in a way that you would notice. I am not saying they would go from 1000-2500 in a single week, but they only have 4.5 weeks left and they seem to be stuck at 1000. If you project a smooth ramp; 1250, 1500, 1750, 2000, 2500, you should notice that kind of weekly improvement. Vins would be out there like crazy and new registrations for vins would be occurring regularly or in large chunks.
Normally I wouldnt be so concerned but this would be the third time this is pushed back and I cant help but think that will have a negative impact on the stock price.
Any expectations for insideEVs numbers coming by Friday? I think anything under 4k would a bit disappointing. I think people will use this as a proxy for 1k/w and less would clearly show they are behind on hitting the 2.5k/w goal in just 5 weeks.
Edit: another odd thing is that people are still getting vins assigned in the 4ks. Just one today In the Vin threads. It seems this is in part due to color. Black seems have been over produced compared to demand and people are getting low vins on black cars. Still very much just anecdotal evidence but odd that a car would sit almost a month in this demand crazed environment.
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Your former statement is what I would expect if they are installing multiples of high volume equipment in the bottleneck zone. If they have 1,500 units worth of equipment coming in and blitz install it, then there could be a large jump. If each piece of equipment is good for 250 units per week and they have a staged install schedule, then you might get the smooth ramp.
Lame analogy:
Family one:
no kids, year later: one kid, year later: two kids, year later: three kids.
Family two
No kids, year later: no kids, year later: no kids, year later: triplets. (less likely, but possible)
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