General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Icer]

Hyundai Pronunciation key:
US: Hun Day
BR: Yoon Die

Kona magic range number of 300 reverberates, but
Feb 8 Green car reports noted revised production number of 18,000
mainly for EU, India, S Kor.
*

Germany. Kudos to Judge(s) courage.

Also Germany, the left hand says ban diesels,
while the other left hand passes out govt' diesel subs
idies?

Hope full T can profit from the fast arriving first wave of panic sales.
They have announced, "The ship is sinking".

Germany. Having over engineered things socially
should we expect a counter over-engineering effort
to fix the problem?

A deal where the Ger Auto mfrs
get considerations towards "making amends"
by giving citizens considerations in trade of
their now decidedly undesirable German car for
a new German car.

Crazy thing is, 60% of the German stock is another diesel.
*
They are really set up to take a punch here.

(says prayer to the Gods Of Production and QC)

Keep the faith.

 

[ggr]

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter I don't see Tuesday pattern here

You're right, sorry. I think I was thinking of the invitation to configure mailings. Many of them have gone out after market on Tuesdays. Unless I'm misremembering that too.

 

[dmckinstry]

If it depends on Tesla sense of humor, then Tesla vehicles will start reciting Vogon poetry when sensors indicate pedestrians nearby.

I was thinking train or truck horns, earthquake rumblings, un-muffled motorcycles revving.

 

[elasalle]

Any ideas on how insideEV estimates monthly Tesla sales?

 

[sub]

What you are quoting is journalist's interpretation of what DHL says.

Here is the actual quote from Jim Monkmeyer, president, Transportation at DHL Supply Chain:


I'm not sure why you would take a journalist's gloss over a precise statement from the executive that the journalist quotes. I can't account for why the journalist stretches 1.5 years into 2 years. Might this reflect a bias that the reporter has? Or is it just sloppy?

I do think it makes a difference whether the payback is 18 months of 24 months as this can impact how quickly DHL might replace its fleet. Does it sell off old trucks to replace quickly or simply wait until old truck need replacement? The quicker the payback, the more likely they are to retire trucks early.

I do think that Monkmeyer is talking about payback relative to the next best option, diesel. But do keep in mind that the savings could be about $0.25/mile in US, which over 1 million warranted miles is a savings of $250k. So the truck really can pay for itself within its warranted life range. So with this sort of savings at play, it does motivate selling off and replacing the diesel fleet ASAP. If that is so, the limiting factors to reolacing thr whole fleet are building out charging infrastructure and building the trucks. These are two awesome problems for Tesla to solve.

I missed the quote earlier on in the cleantechnica article so I stand corrected on that, however, the quote of the dhl exec is still worded badly and can be take the same way the title of the article can be taken, that the Tesla semi completely pays for itself in less than 2 years. No idea if the wording was intentional to mislead or not.

Cleantechnica headline:

DHL Exec: Tesla Semi Trucks To Pay For Themselves In 1.5 Years

 

[Words of HABIT]

I-PACE Electric Concept Vehicle Overview | Jaguar Canada

Thursday, March 1st, 1pm EST Reveal of Jaguar I-PACE here:
Jaguar Canada

It is great that we are starting to see some serious competition. IMHO I believe this will only increase exposure to EVs and benefit Tesla. I love the I-PACE design, however the specs (239mi range, 90kWh lithium battery, dual motor, 0-60km/hr in 4 seconds) don't match the S or X or even the M3 in range. It's a good start for Jaguar and I wish them success. It will be interesting to see how much I-PACE will cost and when they will be scheduled for mass production. Transforming one automotive company at a time. The World is a'changing.

 

[Words of HABIT]

My investments are with TD Waterhouse. With all the different accounts we have TSLA in, RRSP, Spousal RRSP, RESP, TFSA etc, TD Waterhouse sent me seven different packages with Notice of Special Meeting of Stockholders reports and proxies. My wife and I filled out all seven proxies voting FOR Elon's performance based stock option award. If anyone wants a hardcopy of the report, I've got six available.
Daniel

 

[Reciprocity]

I-PACE Electric Concept Vehicle Overview | Jaguar Canada

Thursday, March 1st, 1pm EST Reveal of Jaguar I-PACE here:
Jaguar Canada

It is great that we are starting to see some serious competition. IMHO I believe this will only increase exposure to EVs and benefit Tesla. I love the I-PACE design, however the specs (239mi range, 90kWh lithium battery, dual motor, 0-60km/hr in 4 seconds) don't match the S or X or even the M3 in range. It's a good start for Jaguar and I wish them success. It will be interesting to see how much I-PACE will cost and when they will be scheduled for mass production. Transforming one automotive company at a time. The World is a'changing.

The ipace is interesting. But it's what I have been saying about the impending competition and how pretty much all competitors fall into one or more of the following categories:

1) smaller
2) less acceleration
3) less range
4) more expensive for equal range, features and size
5) slower charging
6) small or non-existing charging network
7) low production volume (less then 20k/Y)

Sadly, as interesting as the ipace is, it's about the size of a model 3 though in a cuv package. It has less range. It's faster, but is it faster then the dual motor 3? Less range and way more expensive based on currently available info. I don't want to appear to be hating on the ipace, I'm sure it is a fine vehicle. But when you compare all the critical factors, the competition is lacking. I personally want competition as I believe it's better for everyone, including Tesla's mission. But it's lacking and ipace and the Kona from Hyundai are as good as it gets. And they do not suck, but they lack in various ways. The Kona is tiny, about the size of a bolt. The ipace is sweet, but small and expensive. Small is fine, but not at that price (around $75k or much much more, no one knows)

The good news is that some companies are really trying and they will get there. Hyundai was a joke 10 years ago and now they sell solid vehicles with very good design. Very competitive at a good price points. I fully expect them to be in the mix in a couple of decades when many companies failed to survive the EV apocalypse.

 

[skitown]

The ipace is interesting. But it's what I have been saying about the impending competition and how pretty much all competitors fall into one or more of the following categories:

1) smaller
2) less acceleration
3) less range
4) more expensive for equal range, features and size
5) slower charging
6) small or non-existing charging network
7) low production volume (less then 20k/Y)

Sadly, as interesting as the ipace is, it's about the size of a model 3 though in a cuv package. It has less range. It's faster, but is it faster then the dual motor 3? Less range and way more expensive based on currently available info. I don't want to appear to be hating on the ipace, I'm sure it is a fine vehicle. But when you compare all the critical factors, the competition is lacking. I personally want competition as I believe it's better for everyone, including Tesla's mission. But it's lacking and ipace and the Kona from Hyundai are as good as it gets. And they do not suck, but they lack in various ways. The Kona is tiny, about the size of a bolt. The ipace is sweet, but small and expensive. Small is fine, but not at that price (around $75k or much much more, no one knows)

The good news is that some companies are really trying and they will get there. Hyundai was a joke 10 years ago and now they sell solid vehicles with very good design. Very competitive at a good price points. I fully expect them to be in the mix in a couple of decades when many companies failed to survive the EV apocalypse.

I think the other feature is "AWD". I was excited about the Kona until I dug around and don't see that it's offered in AWD. Hope I'm wrong. Obviously keeping AWD for ICE models is a good way for established companies to keep selling their ICE SUVs and Crossovers.

 

[Reciprocity]

Any ideas on how insideEV estimates monthly Tesla sales?

Wag.. the same way we all do.

 

[22522]

All,

If you recall, I am a Telsa supporter with a May 10 date, motivated to push Tesla past all the thresholds needed for them to be successful - specifically supplier leverage volume thresholds for low/competitive component costs on a consumer relevant EV.

Also obsessive on meeting commitments, decided in no position to close the deal on the car after doing taxes last year. If I can't close the deal, I lied to suppliers, and Tesla, which is dishonest and violates the golden rule, among others. So I pushed my entire IRA balance into Tesla stock over the course of last summer, putting my ability to close into Tesla's, Elon's and now Ira and the board's (and the market's) hands. I will buy whatever model 3 the stock gains will let me purchase. (I have not swing traded or sold a share of Tesla ever - even though swing trading is the obvious way to make money).

Some of you expressed concerns about how folks selling the stock to pay for their model 3 might depress the stock price. Been trying to help you out. I do have some money in my current employer's 401K and that employment is coming to an end. Just making the 55 yo window before this most recent employment end lets me withdraw from the 401K with no penalty - just income tax. None of that money could have been directed to Tesla ever. So I can withdraw that to pay for the 3, and use any tax credit left to pay for the income taxes on the 401K withdrawal.

I will probably split the funding sources between a loan on the 401K and withdrawal from the 401K to minimize taxes, while still having a car payment (to self) in the $300 a month range.

So rest easy. I close the deal, without selling any shares of Tesla stock or negatively impacting the stock price in any way.

Your investment is protected from my model 3 funding actions.

 

[BornToFly]

There is one thing bothering me about blaming the ramp completely on the Gigafactory. The original plan was to make only the RWD so that they could keep production simple and ramp quickly. However, if the battery packs are limiting the ramp, why not take that opportunity to get the AWD production started? Why push that back? Anyone else think this is worrisome?

 

[22522]

There is one thing bothering me about blaming the ramp completely on the Gigafactory. The original plan was to make only the RWD so that they could keep production simple and ramp quickly. However, if the battery packs are limiting the ramp, why not take that opportunity to get the AWD production started? Why push that back? Anyone else think this is worrisome?

Nothing is worrisome before the 200K line of domestic deliveries gets crossed.

The six months (-) after that day are when you should see actual process capability - game day, so to speak.

 

[Cattledog]

Just was assigned VIN 68xx through website, hopefully I'll be able to speak in the first person about the Model 3 in a couple weeks! I have no idea what this means for the stock price...

 

[elasalle]

Wag.. the same way we all do.

Means as useless then ( reading the VIN leaves)

 

[RobStark]

Means as useless then ( reading the VIN leaves)

This is quoted from insideevs December sales report regarding their Model S estimate.

"To come to an estimated monthly number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3 and hope it all works out. This is surely not how it works in the real world. We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, including first-hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself, and the number is what it is (see below).

Revisions/disclaimer to the accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via U.S. Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full-year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full-year numbers. While past success is no guarantee of future results, InsideEVs is quite proud of its sales tracking for the Model S over the years.

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales. Despite our fairly accurate track record, we’re not analysts or portfolio managers and we don’t own any positions in Tesla the company."

 

[GoTslaGo]

Another reason to ban Diesel, possible link between Diesel and ALS...(Lou Gehrig disease):

Study suggests a possible link between ALS and diesel exhaust - The Boston Globe

 

[TNEVol]

Two weeks with M3. Love it. My only reservations are that there may be a lot off new owners who haven't been exposed to the beta and upgrade program that former MS owners have gone through. I only used AP1 on a loner but it was much smoother than our M3. I know it will improve but how will people new to Tesla find it. The M3 has a bunch of software issues like no wifi updates but what concerns me is how new owners will react when they have a bunch of groceries and the car won't recognize the phone. I stood there like an idiot for about 10 minutes. Fortunately I used the remote driving on the app to unlock the car and drive. Later I figured out it had to do with Bluetooth and connectivity. Also why dont the DS teach how to reboot? Having one of the early MS I understand that this will all work out in time but new folks may be put off if the radio doesn't work at first. Overall the care is well built and works well.

 

[sundaymorning]

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter I don't see Tuesday pattern here

Tesla Tuesday pattern returning?!? That explains today’s price action then.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I'm collecting some data points,